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Both the EPS and GEFS eject significant energy eastward from upper low moving southward towards Baja.

My opinion- this storm is looking like like your classic old school CAD overrunning that we haven't seen in a long time. 3-5 inches of snow, and inch or 2 of sleet and .25 of ice that turns into an iceberg for days. Thats just what it looks like right now for us foothills folks. More snow the further NE you go, more ice toward SC.

Ripping fatties here in this stuff.

Also notice the PV is more east on gfs than euro, aifs, aigfs

The Euro AI solution. I’m less concerned about less snow and more concerned about more ice! Someone is going to get at gnarly ice storm out of this and I hope it's not our forum.

Some of us will need a cliff to jump off of. Feel free to jump here.

16 here as well. .

Just blend all guidance and our region is the cross hairs. We may finally get the region wide storm we’ve needed for about a decade.

16 here this morning. Ground will be cold for anything frozen that falls.

I was noticing the AI models pushing the warmth further north. Was surprised no one posted about it. I guess we only post what we want to see. I am sure the next 5 days will be a rollercoaster as usual. I just hope we can keep that ZR down at a minimal amount. The Euro AI is actually showing some warmish temps through the storm to keep ice totals down. Should be an interesting week to track.

Im convinced the AIs are going to lead the way on this. ride them in the mid range for storm track, 500 trough positions

That was a great set of runs overnight. Something nice to wake up to!

I'd be very hesitant with the AI models. They really haven't done well. A tool but I wouldn't lean heavily on anything they spit out.

I mean, I think it's all linked? The shortwave coming out will pump heights out ahead of it, but the strength of the trop PV (and associated HP at the surface) is trying to squash it. If you look at 12z Friday as a point in time, yes, the GFS has the upper low farther west off the California coast, but Euro/EuroAI aren't *that* much farther east. But the GFS has the height field over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS much lower.

I had a low of 16 this morning. So I guess we'll be watching things unfold this week.

Yesterday’s early morning snow combined with the late afternoon surprise dusting amounted to an additional 2.5” off of .21” liquid, for a weekend total of 4.7”. Low last night dropped to 14, as this snowpack should really be able to show its teeth in the nights ahead. Hoping for a nice storm this weekend, have to get back into the swing of things. Onward.

2.5" total yesterday and 2" Saturday 4.5" for the weekend and 15.5" ytd

the most important factor is how these indexes and their strength is going to affect the path of the storms across the country regarding the strength and position of various pressure systems.......

An overrunning event would be a classic winter storm for the region. I think it would be best case scenario with what's being shown.

Last significant ice storm would be 2002? Funny because they used to happen a lot more. Personally open to any significant winter weather event but obviously rooting for a big snow.

Final totals here. 4.8 Saturday, 2.9 Sunday, 26.7 for the season. So far it's an A but we're just getting to halftime.

Wow, the whole 23-26th time frame changed overnight it seems (as it does..) This is the weekend I'm going out to Wisp though. A few days ago the high on sat was like 40. Now it's 10! Low Friday night is -5. I kinda wish I had a block heater for my truck ugh. Looks like precip popped up for almost every day/night during the period as well, but that's like extreme NW MD in the mountains / resort areas so that's different.

Ya’ll, it’s now pinned. Could someone PLEASE start a sanitarium thread for one liners, complaints, etc so we can keep this thread clean for information? Also, could ya’ll put locations and for those lurking, please keep in mind where that poster is located.

I just asked in the other thread how much you got, wow this ended up being a nice storm. I figured you got a lot, I was just outside the heaviest banding and got 5-6 inches. You were right in the middle of it, so this does not surprise me.