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Had a trace of snow this afternoon. This is the 2nd trace this season.

there appears to be assimilation bias in the gfs

NAM starts to be helpful around 24 hours out* *tongue firmly in cheek

What?

NAM synoptics at 84hr can be creative

The GFS is clearly the outlier and it is all alone with that depiction. When you compare the 18z GFS and NAM @ 84 hr, you can see @ h5 the GFS trough is just about to turn negative, while the NAM is nowhere near turning negative.

12Z EPS held into the cold partially because of this:

Hey, we got a white Christmas out of it, snow on Christmas Eve, and subzero lows two days before Christmas. If that's what it takes, encourage him to do the same this year.

Yeah that’s decently SE of the EPS now.

Stayed in the mid 30's all afternoon with winds gusting to 30. Snow grains falling at times under partly sunny skies. High of 36.

I agree....I'm fine with that.

Will this remain the odd one out or will all the other models cave to this over the next 40 hours?

Same here…brief, but ‘twas snow.

Looks like serious taint if I am being honest.

MKE not playing around! Feeling like a 5 year old on Christmas Eve.

Decided to bike in this nonsense and was treated to a light flurry while I was pumping air in my tires. This might be the year. Edit: Was supposed to go in Obs.

Yeah. That would be game over for everyone. Is what it is.

understatement.

Hopefully it’s interesting. 2020, as well as other December’s, jaded me so much that it’s hard to get my hopes up, especially if we torch right before Christmas.

I would love 21z rap to verify please

hopefully this keeps trending south? how is the euro look 18z?

Me, neither.

Or does it?

Were not seeing 2" qpf, Probably 0.5-1.0" would be more realistic, 18z GEFS looks nothing like the OP, Its SE of it.