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Thank you! Very much needed. Not sure about west TN.

That probably was scud?

Yeah I thought there would be more wind damage and a little more widespread. But I think we were close to getting several Tors.

Interesting trend in some of the evening guidance to slow the exit of the clouds and showers on Sunday. The HRRR is the slowest, with showers not exiting the DC area until after noon and temps staying in the 60s all day with clouds. The NAM Nest and HiResW ARW2 both keep shower chances around through much of the morning but still get sun by midday. HiResW FV3 gets the showers out early, and clearing arrives quickly.

The Orioles extended their winning streak to 10 games that I have attended recently. This one was the sweetest of them all. No-hit down to their last out and then rally for 4 to win it. Orioles Magic !

I mean, to be clear, today was a little disappointing relative to the modeled potential, right?

0.71" for me in Lindenhurst, better rain event than I expected tonight

Yawn. And tomorrow looks like ass too. Supposed to play Manchester Country Club at noon.

And the rain keeps falling..we have to be over an inch in just the last few hours now

I cannot stand him. Used to be one of the best but gave into social media and clicks

Glad you all got a significant Rain.

0.19" by obs. Lt rn

Got a nice period of moderate rain here from that line too. Up to 1.35"

Neighbor rain gauge here had 2.2”. Very thankful for that. Went to Pikeville KY to watch daughter’s college soccer game. The leaves there & especially at 1000ft were clearly changing. Lots of red & yellows.

too much stellas it's Saturday night innit and my return cycle calculations showed a storm in the gulf around the 3rd week of sep anyways lad it's based off cycles innit

Trees going red here already.

Trace hoping for some light showers overnight

Only the GFS. Up to 1.40” now

I have drizzle. It's amazing. 0.23" since August 20th with a good chance it stays under 0.25" through September 19th for a 30 day total. 22.48" on year Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

1.03" Hicksville

Here is the video Scooter mentioned (forgive me for still not knowing how to embed a Twitter link) https://x.com/tuckerweather/status/1964467995683762221?s=46&t=096JqkIpgJTvSWddnDYqdA

I drove through some 1"+ stuff, that was fun. Only got .25 here at home but it looks like it's about to get wet again. What's left of the garden is happy.

It really should considering the pacific Inferno… That’s probably a complete response to that forcing in the climate models. … Frankly, I’m leaning towards some kind of an early loaded winter or quasi winter pattern … Something like November 15 through January 30 mid January at some point, but I don’t think it necessarily reloads midwinter on…

The 18Z GEFS is the most active run yet in the W Car/Gulf 9/12-end of the run! If I were living on the Gulf coast, I’d be a bit concerned. As Barry earlier mentioned, this has strong support from the MJO. More about that soon:

Did no model have the extensive rain we are currently seeing? Some were better than others but nothing really had this blossoming on radar. Most models had the real rain tomorrow morning.