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I can give you Breslow's reasoning for not doing anything as its the same year in and year out.

A few re-edits and new shots from the other night and following morning:

GFS did move north a bit from it's 6z run...but still south of some of the other models.

Tick tick tick

I’d like to know what snow gods we pissed off. It feels like we are going for the golden sombero at this pace.

That's the worst penis i have ever seen.

Seems like we got NAM/Rgem the most north, gfs the most south and euro and icon in between

Is the GFS as interested in SNE snow as the Sox were in Alonso?

The few events we've had favored areas that cash in on a NW wind direction. The Bentleyville/Solon area seems to be ground zero. Payback for all the events that have a due westerly wind we miss out on

Man... the GFS has been rock solid

Yeah. This is tough to even get too excited about yet. Basically a Nowcast of where that thing even sets up.

The RGEM pivotal map I linked was 10:1 ratios

Mostly a south coast and cape scraper on GFS but another bump would make it pretty decent if we can get that trend going rather than just oscillating between scrapers and whiffs on this model.

Snowfall is rapidly decreasing, except for high latitudes.

GFS pretty steady - very slight tick north but it's got such a tight band every tick matters I guess. ninja'd x2

Develops over the region on the GFS.

Loving all of the wintry scenes being posted. So far I'm living vicariously through them.

GFS slightly more north. 2-3” dc-Philly. Horrible cutoff nw tho. After rgem and nam, something tells me this isn’t done shifting north, for better or worse.

That's why I almost always post the 10:1 maps, as those give you easy-to-calculate QPF too and to do one's own ratio adjustments, as Kuchera generally sucks as a snow prediction algorithm.

100% agree and same for down here, speaking mainly for my experience with W/NW orographic /upslope snow. The good producers are almost always at night here. Maybe places like Stowe or Jay it is more even, but I can say for down here there is a stark difference. I feel this has been talked about at some point maybe years ago, I just cant remember that reason. I think one of the possible reasons was during the day with the Sun it can make them more convective in nature vs at night more stratiform without the daytime heating (relative). I may be completely off on that though...lol.

Winds are howling. Continuous steady 33 mph winds.

It's trending favorably at 12z. huh

I didn’t think this was totally unexpected. What would have been a surprise is a much longer stay in phase 8. I’ve been watching the MJO a lot lately, and the little rmm “loop” told us that some of the forcing would be pulled back from 8 to 6, resetting the 6>7>8 progression. Hollmovers showed this pretty clearly. I think we will see another incursion into 8 by years end into january. This may actually be part of a long term shift of the standing wave from 4-6 to 7-8, which will take a while but we may actually be seeing this play out.

I know and that’s why today is a critical moment for guidance.

These winds are brutal. Was on 95 going to training. Over the hackensack river huge gust came through, watched every truck start moving thinking one was going to tip then my pickup got hit and was like wtf.