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NNE still winning the heat battle

49 this morning, 79 now.

76/54 September CoC

The 12Z EPS has a notable signal for a TC formation (~25%) in the S Gulf with them moving mainly N to WNW and then hitting or threatening to hit from NE MX through TX/LA. But this could be mainly gone on the 0Z for all we know since this run looks much different vs earlier runs and its way out in the unreliable late week 2.

80 my high today

NOAA's official website has June-July as 3rd warmest, only behind 1949 and 1934 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/mapping/36/tavg/202507/2/anomaly Important to note that it also shows that the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 10th warmest June-Julys for Pennsylvania have all happened since 2005.

Thanks Don! Unlike meteorology, I actually know statistics so this is great. Much appreciated.

76° / 51°. Actually feels kind of hot working in the sun.

For the record but fwiw since it’s still well out in wild guessing land, the 12Z Euro directly hits Bermuda 9/14-5 as a MH as it moves NE.

Looks like a Greenland block in October:

Hopefully the ASOS service life extension program makes the network more reliable. It's 30 years old at this point and really starting to show its age.

See I don’t even quantify it that strictly … I mean, I know what you’re saying there, but I think it’s more apt to say that the return rate for big winters (which might even be a subjective powderkeg) is going to get less and less and just leave it at that. Even acceptable winters raritying moving forward. We’re not at 0 now tho To state at the obvious… ruts can and will occur independent of climate change. However, with the ladder aspect raging on would increase return rate of the ruts. We have to kind of think of it that way. Btw, n my own methods, toying with the notion that the winter or a quasi winter state is early loaded. I have no idea how that conforms or does not conform to anyone or any consensus. I don’t really get into seasonal forecasting

No real torchy stuff for a bit. Maybe around the 10th it ramps up some.

Nice evenings and mornings make warm afternoons in the 80s easy going this week. Except Friday could hit 90 which will feel hot. Prefrontal warming strikes before a cool weekend. Looking out a week the next warm up is weaker, as one would expect deeper into September. Great Lakes trough will take a couple short-waves to cool down our region. See Friday prefrontal heat. Later next week after the Great Lakes mean trough fills, 500 mb heights should remain at or below normal in the Southeast. Midwest warmth should get into the Mid-South at times but it should be brief.

Pretty sparse late week rain chances on the WB 12Z globals.

55 for the low

planned for some overseeding/new seeding this Fall, but not looking like it'll happen. Don't want to tax the well

I saw that Video. 2010-11 was a great Winter. Basically all Forecasters were predicting a mild one due to the formidable La nina. Upstream blocking crapped their Outlook's. I saw where 62-63 is being thrown around some as well. That one was just bitter. Not any big Snows but many Snowfalls. Blocking once again ruled the Roost.

Around Carlisle today saw some yellows and reds on some trees..It's starting early.

2010-2011 winter had the White Christmas in Chattanooga, storybook with 3-4 inches of snow that morning. Then we got hammered 8-10 inches mid-January. I think one other true accumulating snow happened (Dec 13 or 14). Then we got a few little dustings. IIRC it was a good year from the Mid-South to the Great Valley.

Hopefully tropical storm Lorena brings some rain to the desert southwest, most of that area is still in at least severe drought (D2).

what once looked like a decently wet system coming up the coast is now a cold front with showers

Its still 82

Doubt it in reality, but with the website you're using it may be the case

"Wake me up.....when September ends....