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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
TheClimateChanger replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
According to the records of NCEI, lows in the 30s were observed somewhere in the State of New Jersey in the following years. Note, this is not an exhaustive list of ALL 30s. Some of these years had more than one site and/or more than one day in the 30s. This is just the lowest observation each year. The all-time statewide monthly record low is 33F, set at Layton 3 NW on July 3, 1929. The last time a low below 40F was observed in the state during the month of July was July 9, 2000, when Lambertville reported a low of 38F. 1890: 39F 1898: 38F 1899: 38F 1903: 38F 1909: 39F 1912: 36F 1918: 39F 1925: 39F 1927: 36F 1929: 33F 1939: 38F 1943: 39F 1945: 36F 1954: 39F 1957: 38F 1975: 39F 1986: 39F 2000: 38F -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
kdxken replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Well it would be a top five . By some accounts... -
I'm full sun. It's 90, dewpoint 76 HI of 106 Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk
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My in laws are getting crushed in Landisville.
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Torch Tiger replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Love to see it! -
76 degrees breezy and cloudy….what a difference a day makes. My one weather station is in the sun. Yesterday afternoon it read 103 the highest I ever seen it. My other temperature gauge is in the shade, read 99.
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The 79° dew point at Philly is tied for the highest ever at 11am. Philadelphia PTSUNNY 89 79 -
We got a heavy storm overnight for .46 more.
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Has been off and on intense downpours since just before I left for work this morning. Going to be rather ugly to attempt to get home later.
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
weatherwiz replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Seems like the risk for any significant flooding is on the low side. It's looking like everything is going to be more progressive but where stuff trains you could develop some issues. But overall the rates shouldn't be anything too out of this world. -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Damage In Tolland replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Dews ! https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1950905058373042334?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Damage In Tolland replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
ACATT absolutely cocked up this morning -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
powderfreak replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Imagine if we had a 11th snowiest winter, we’d be throwing parades. -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
UnitedWx replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
You guys are getting absolutely screwed with no rain out east. We have had a TON out my way in Westfield. Still cutting the lawn every four to five days and even then it's longer than i like my weeds to be -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
weatherwiz replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
may see a few pop up showers/thunder across the high terrain tomorrow -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Brian5671 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
It'll drop south later but it's alot slower than modeled a day or two ago -
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0832&yr=2025 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0832 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1101 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 311500Z - 312100Z SUMMARY...Potential for slow moving, highly efficient thunderstorms with localized 2-3"/hr rates possible. Storm interactions may allow for localized totals of 2-4" totals and likely to induce flash flooding conditions by 21z. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and visible GOES-E imagery shows a well defined stationary front within the Long Island sound intersecting to a surface low in the Delaware Valley before entering the terrain through the Lehigh Valley into south-central PA. A secondary surface wave near MDT/THV has a sharpening Lee Trough extending southward along the lee of the Blue Ridge toward Roanoke, VA and points south. Between the boundaries through the Mid-Atlantic, very moist and building instability can be seen with sfc Tds in the mid-70s with isolated low 80s dotted throughout the area. Weak southerly, confluent flow through 700-500mb is noted in CIRA LPW layers with enhanced moisture which totals over 2" (KIAD already at 2.16" at 12z) and will be increasing toward 2.25+" into the early afternoon. MLCAPE values have reached 2000 J/kg with weak capping noted and visible imagery shows expanding Cu field across much of the area, with some weak vertical development along major ridge lines of E PA, or near the stationary front/outflow boundary intersections across N NJ. Aloft, WV shows a very strong jet streak across the St.Lawrence River Valley with broad right entrance ascent pattern across much of the Upper OH valley through central NY into the Interior of New England. The convectively enhanced shortwave continues to shear/elongate from SSW to NNE with upstream core over E OH and into confluent flow will continue, along with the right entrance ascent provide ample DPVA and ascent profiles throughout the Mid-Atlantic. Bulk shear is greater near and north of the surface front likely to result in greater cell organization but is further distanced from deepest moisture/highest Theta-E near the Chesapeake Bay into SE PA. As such, there is likely to be difference in convective activity/manner across the area. Weak convergence along the lee trough/Blue Ridge is likely to expand areas of convection westward with time as well across NW VA. South of the Lehigh Valley, 12z guidance is increasing confidence in initial convective development through the 15-16z time frame. Initial thunderstorms will be very slow moving, but have stronger/broader updrafts with 14-15Kft of warm cloud layer for highly efficient rainfall production. While inflow will be weak, it is likely to pull multiple broad columns of that 2-2.25" Total PWat air to support 2-3"/hr rates by 18z given very slow cell motions (slower further south). Storm scale interaction/cold pool generation is likely to be the dominant mode of propagation, so interactions/collisions/mergers are possible and may result in increased duration to support localized 3-4" totals. The area remains saturated with 0-40cm soil ratios over 50-60% which is in the 70-80th percentile, combine that with proximity to large urban centers with impermeable surfaces; the shear rates are likely to overwhelm ground conditions quickly and result in flash flooding conditions; a localized considerable incident of flooding is possible as well. Gallina ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI... ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...
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It’s called lethal wet bulb for a reason
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
steve392 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
85,feels humid but there is a cool breeze out of my east northeast. Shortening days are making the shadows longer making it more comfortable outside again. I hope this rain gets my area good. Everything is so dry. -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
TheClimateChanger replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
For Connecticut, I expect the July mean to come in around 75.2F, which would make this the third hottest July on record. 2023 is tied for 7th hottest with 1999 (mean of 74.8F), and this July has averaged 0.435F warmer across the same basket of stations. Cooler weather today may impact this a bit, but probably at least 75F, which would still be 4th hottest. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
forkyfork replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
ewr getting 30 90 degree days from june and july alone is impressive -
Central PA Summer 2025
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Already a nasty cell right over that same Columbia to Mount Joy corridor that got hit so hard a couple weeks ago. Solid rain falling at my house. And so it begins.... -
2013 had a completely different system in place than we do this year that was suppressing Atlantic tropical activity, but yes, I remember that season well. When we got to the end of July, people were saying it was going to ramp up in mid-late August, then it was going to ramp up in September, then there was going to be a late season burst in October, which also didn’t happen….before we knew it, it was November and tropical season ended
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
lee59 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
As warm as this month has been, it will be the first month this year that will be warmer than the same month last year, at Central Park. Of course Last year was a record warm year. Also this month will be warmer than last July by only a tenth or so. -
Was just about to post that.