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Good afternoon everyone. We are monitoring a line of showers currently across eastern PA into western NJ that has widespread 40-50 and some isolated 60mph gusts with it. Based on current trends, it'll be into central NJ after 3pm, NYC by 4pm, and out onto Long Island by 4:30-5pm. Winds this time around are westerly.

Last year, my brother had a 12 foot rubber Santa come rolling onto his property from a neighbor about 300 yards away. The Santa got impaled by a sharp branch; the branch had snapped earlier in the day. The neighbor came to retrieve it and blamed my brother for not maintaining his trees. There are all types out there.

Power out Ridgewood park area of Waterford

If this trend continues, by Christmas the EPS will have 512” forecast!!

Hearing you say that gives me bad 2016-17 vibes. Awful winter but there were some breaks if you include March.

oh now some graupel enthusiast is going to tell santa how his own goddamn workshop operates

Looks to be another long band building that should approach North Hills and then your area in a little. You should see over an inch in your area. I have about 1/2 inch and best snows look north of me.

1.2" of snow on the back side of this. Temp back up to 33.2 now that it's over.

The line coming from PA has 60 to 70 mph gusts with it

Aggressive trade. That’s an impressive prospect haul plus a draft pick. But Baz is a solid get for several seasons. Could have #2-3 caliber stuff

This right here for 100000

Pretty simple thoughts based on 2 things that my intuition keeps bringing up. 1) I expected blocking to be on the friendly vs hostile side and 2) we're over due for a decent coastal that gets everyone. Not a giant storm as they are pretty rare. Just a decent coastal that has a pretty uniform 1"+ of qpf and drops 8-12" across all 3 airports. I also don't think this nina is all that strong nor will it influence the winter door to door. Both of my snowfalls had a southern connection to precip already. Northern stream action is the bulk of our snowfalls and storm chances in every enso phase. Jan 2016 came onshore in the pac nw. The main shortwave was northern stream. But it tapped the southern stream when it mattered and went nuts. People get too hung up on northern stream being anti snow. It's only anti snow when the gulf or Southern stream is closed for business. So far this year, gulf moisture tap has been decent. I don't see why that won't continue at times.

I thought the elves did that?

PNA = king for the coastal plain. we simply do not get decent snows without it, with extremely rare exceptions.

East Asia Mountain Torque event but she ain’t torquing right now

This is a good point. We are following 05-06 closely right now. There actually aren't many deep -QBO/weak-negative ENSO matches to this year, but 05-06 and 89-90 fit. Feb 2006 went cold when Feb 1990 was warm, but they were both warm January's. I do think there is more -AO tendency at 90N this Winter that neither of those analogs had. Will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves going into mid-January.

48/46 with .87"

Not at all lol

EPS went from .3 to .5 from 00z of snow!

I doubt that much but saying this month is done is foolish. You have been wrong since December 1. Stop predicting the long range because the models have been horrendous.

part of me believes that this anthonymn character is just mjo812's alter ego and they switch back and forth between total oscar meyer mode and warminista

Yeah, this caught me off guard. I only caught the end of the heavy burst around 11:15 coming up from the basement. Probably laid down a quick quarter inch that flash froze to everything. Had to go into the city so Im missing the good stuff back home. Ring camera looks like at least an 3/4 to an inch. Driving down 28 my car was completly encased in snow and ice, while all the other vehicles were clean around me. Felt like I was in the delorean a time traveling stint lol.

Snow almost gone. 52F. Max gust 37mph. We always rip some good S winds

I have decorations down.. it is a massacre of lighted snowmen outside! - Hoping winds subside soon! Winds have to be gusting to 50+ at times. Lights have been going flickering and had brief outage.

Just seen mdt had a gust close to 70.