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The strongest -IOD since 1996 is earth-shattering

Apprently all 5,323 -IOD graphics were earth shattering, even though no one can say definitevely how manifests into the pattern.

Not sure if mentioned before, but a great update to https://beta.pivotalweather.com/models/ Much better mobile UI.

That is truly horrifying.

You've had frosts too right?

Sorry. I'll wait for something earth shattering before I post. Can your attitude get any worse? I was just updating the numbers.

And the north pacific pattern isn't permanent either. It'll change at some point, maybe back to what it was before the extreme long-duration negative PDO... or take a different form altogether. My wag is that the NE Pac might be next to get a long-duration marine heat wave (selfishly good for us weenies, but disastrous for many ecosystems and livelihoods up and down the western NA continent)

I think its the Northern Mid Atlantic

for what its worth the low tide early this morning was -1.77 feet MLLW at Sandy Hook, nudging the threshold for low water advisory there. Not sure what impact this had?

The model trend is for a weaker system as it moves across Iowa. There is no guarantee I'll see any flakes.

Somewhat interesting next Tue: next near 200M amplifying 5H HFC in the eastern USA for the period 10/30-11/11. This time it amplifies too late and too far northeast - about 200M near Eastport Maine on the 11th. May result in our first flurries and more certainly another 45+MPH wind event (with less leaves to act as sails). Today is the 6th. No thread, if ever any, til at least this Saturday. Need modeling to agree more wind etc.

If we can get the trip into cold Phases along with the weak PV or SSWE late Nov early December will flip back cold. As we know, that TC heading there is not good if you want a Trough in the East. The Mid Nov Period has been progged mild overall awhile now. Of course, Wavelengths matter too. Also, MJO Ph has a bit different effect irt location in November, particularly early. Most assuredly a warm spell is coming but strength and duration is undetermined.

It'll be interesting to see where the short term models bring this if it doesn't completely fall apart before then. Either way my Monday classes are looking real skippable if WV is getting 2-3 inches OTG and daytime snowfall.

Have pictures of us as kids back in 1966 Christmas Day. I was 5 and don't remember. 1978 they didn't plow 1 street in our neighborhood, and we all went sledding down that street for days. Feb 1983 was out in that one all day/night. First time witnessed thunder and lighting. Jan 1996 Eagles played Dallas in Dallas that day. I didn't get out for 2 days after that one. Feb 2014 I was staying with my Mom after my father's death and it felt like all I did was shovel snow. Was it 2010 that we had the 2 storms in a week of each other? That was a lot of snow. Cars were buried and we cleared the deck before the 2nd one hit. Stucco windowsills froze outside the house and thawed so many times they blew apart. Maybe we'll get one good one this year.

GEFS, like @NorthArlington101implied, is not buying it nearly as much. 10 out of 30 (33%) hits.

Yeah, our only shot locally is flukey secondary nonsense. EPS is actually more into it than I assumed it would be. Worth watching cause nothing else is on the table right now

Is NYC the NE to you or the mid atlantic ?

Agreed. As depicted, this is a mountains special, which isn't uncommon in November.

While their snowfall map was reasonable, I would have broadbrushed the 12-18" zone more evenly from the mountains all the way eastward to the beaches, and then cut the numbers by 70%. So basically 9-14" for the entire midatlantic outside of the higher elevations.

Median on the 12z EPS (yes, the MEDIAN and not the mean) shows 0.3"!

12z EPS has an incredible amount of hits (hits mean at least flurries at one of the airports of BWI, IAD, DCA, and RIC). 38 out of 50! (76%)

That depiction might work for the mountains (prob not for Cville) if that's the way things went but pretty sure the only way we'd see flakes in the metros where most of us are is if the EURO/UKIE/CMC/ICON have a clue and we just happen to be the lucky spot

First flurries today!

Like I said, it took the best winter ever and one other good one in that 15 year stretch to get it to 21.8, the other 13 years averaged less than 17", like what we have had recently. Those 15 years for my area not far outside the city were worse than the last 9 here. We only had 2 years where the benchmark track worked in that past timeframe, the rest of the 15 years didn't for the NYC vicinity.