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Beyond that 12/2 threat which is pretty precarious as it is....the pattern looks about as favorable as you can get it considering we're firmly in a La Nina/-PDO regime this season....note the NAO ridging that has retrograded into Greenland....this is what Scott and I were talking about when we wanted to see it come back a couple days ago. It's been showing up again and it's gotten a bit stronger the last 2 runs of the EPS, so hopefully it's not fake. It makes the pattern a lot better when you have even just some weak ridging up there. This is a 5 day mean .

The models continue to look cold in the long range all the way out to December 10th. At least we're looking at a cold weather pattern for the 1st half of December. That gives us a chance at seeing some early accumulating snow at some point in early-mid December, even if it's a light event. Certainly beats a warm weather pattern.

If we want to see snow on the coast we have to hope for the trough to pass the coast before the precip comes up so it can ride the boundary. We also have to hope that the flow slows down. We haven't had a big phase in a long time . Can we finally have one ?

2 real

Good point

EPS not quite as good as 00z, but this is workable at D7.

Better than if it was 34°

12z Euro ensembles only a couple panels with any somewhat significant snow

Euro AI ensembles are west of the op. I expect the ridge on the east coast to pump more due to the negative PNA. I expect shifts west but the question becomes how much far west?

Oof, this hurts! But so real! .

On the GFS MOS you see numerical categories for snow. For instance 0 is no snow, 1 is T-2”, a 2 is 2-4” etc. Goes all the way to 8. So Jerry one day years ago posted the GFS MOS and said 8 Mothufukkas!! And it’s been a joke since.

So the Euro is worse too ? - similar solution as Ukmet - Euro Ai and Canadian - GFS basically alone as of now

Realist!

You don’t say…

Based on recent multiyear trends... - Nice long range signal (check) - 3 days out, epic Euro run (check) - South, Drier, Weaker trend to begin (pending) - Model rug pull within 30 hours (pending) - 1-2" actual result (pending)

MOS/MEX snow totals

muthufukka = mother fucker. Just kidding, I've wondered about that one too.

Hopefully we don't get above 55 degrees all winter. There is something deeply unwholesome about 70 degrees in the middle of winter.

Glad to see Dr. No is already in mid-season form. Picked up a little more than 0.50” yesterday. Currently 57F. Maybe I can reach 60F if the sun pops out.

Full climo for the month and we reinvigorate the December 5th Rule. Sold.

Things continue to evolve nicely toward a cold and snowy pattern in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region with the cold then expanding eastward. The probability of a moderate to significant snowfall in such cities as Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Toronto during November 29-30 has increased. As a result, Chicago will likely see its snowiest autumn since 2019 and possibly 2018. As the cold spreads into the East, at least some accumulations of snow are likely across Central/Upstate New York and central/northern New England. There is even a chance that some snow could reach the coastal plain, especially from New Jersey north and eastward. Statistically, during December 1980-2024, 11% of days have seen measurable snowfall in New York City when the EPO, WPO, and PNA were negative. That would translate into an expected value of 1.1 days during the December 1-10 period. Significant (6" or above) snowstorms have not occurred during the first half of December when the PNA was negative (1950-2024). Boston has seen three significant snowfalls during a PNA- during the first half of December, the biggest being 10.5" during December 13-14, 2007 (NYC saw 0.2" from that storm).

At least you own it brother,lol. Many of us fell for it. The Warmanistas are still trying to twist their reasoning and deny any fails.

I've been able to osmotically pick up on what most terms used on this board mean over time but this one here, I'm still struggling to figure it out. Can anyone help a brother out?

Hit 70 today. Probably the last one for a while.