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0.55”

A week away?

Boatyards are scrambling to get boats out of the harbor. Continuous back-and-forth of the trucks to the town wharf. At least people had been having them slowly being pulled out once we got to labor day.

38 overnight here with considerable clouds. Eagle Mine on the Yellow Dog was 25, Baraga Plains 26. Mid 50's will be the rule in N Marquette County today. Upper 60's for highs should return by the weekend. Locally, leaves are 40-50% color. Was in Marquette over the weekend and color was for the most part 10-15%. Peak in the higher terrain areas should be within 7-10 days. Comparing the change with pics from last September, we're a little behind, even with the dryness.

It may be a tricky setup but it’s not almost a week away. Follow the ensembles and proceed with caution.

I definitely wouldn’t be sold on anything meaningful yet. Almost a week away and a tough setup. No different than in winter when people have been tracking a system for 12 days and when it fizzles everyone is surprised

Bend me back like Gumby

I suspect the PDO will average pretty near neutral this season..we'll see, which could leave us prone to some interludes of cross polar flow, between which we nape.

Yeah, hopefully it misses

Whether this is the case on January 15 ... who knows. But this is an apparent unique - perhaps historically so - state of affairs we are in heading into Autumn. When comparing other warm ENSOs that were anywhere near peers with this one, the PDO was in better agreement. Those being 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015 very warm events. But, +.7 isn't 1.0 The offset .3 isn't exactly a trivial anticorrelation value. 30% of PDO/ENSOs didn't want to cooperate ( according to CDC). The qualitative difference being ... it is easier on intuition to see a weaker warm ENSO being more likely to anticorrelate - break downs in the machinery in weaker gradients..etc. However, very powerful ones would instinctively dominate the hemisphere because tall heat S abuts canonical seasonal lowering hgts N, and that's proficient coupling. That's the '82/'97/'15 events. This ENSO is (presumably) as powerful ( even in a RONI dimming consideration ... it's just too overwhelming? ) yet having this over-arcing -PDO is thus uncharted water ( pun hopefully annoying ... ) It's hard to say how that will impact the circulation 'scaffolding' of the hemisphere, should it persist. This latter bold being a key question. There is a modest pos correlation between the PDO and EPO in November, which strengthens significantly through the winter. This is intriguingly implicating for both warm and cool N/A. In a shortened planetary wave lengths, the -EPO dives the mean height anomaly distribution over the west. This correlates/teleconnects to ridging/+geopotential hgts 80W. But in the winter, when the wave lengths are necessarily long as a physical response to high seasonal velocity foot, the -EPO tends to mean the lower heights progress E fairly quickly. That's the reason -EPOs cause cold snaps. However, the STJ "should be" lurking over TX into the TV and lower MA; so what then should this mean if an ongoing -PDO/-EPO keeps sending in knuckle achers... This sort of 'unicorn' scenario has been discussed among some of us, already. It's not confident enough to predict... for one, we don't know if this -PDO/atmospheric circulation mod over the arc of the N. Pac will continue. You know, that big winter storm - the first of the two - that took place last winter is a reasonable implication/typology. That January one was a broad continental scale overrunning event really..

Typical manifestation of CC....it's often not readily apparent and rather insidious.

Deep mind has a group of tracks bending west south of the islands too.

Yea, it's clear something still isn't quite clicking.

Opinions this weekend 9/25-27: potential evolving hybrid subtropical storm affecting NYC metro-New England. More so EPS, but also a muted agreed signal in the GEFS. Any thoughts? Current guidance is offering a pretty good chance of at least moderate CF, FGEN heavy rain, obviously 45+ wind gusts parts of this region. Or am I counting too much on the guidance as is, and it ends up weaker or further east. We've had spotty modeling of 5-8" rainfall by Sunday night for several days. Glad I'm not seafaring in the NY Biight-Bermuda this coming weekend. Thanks for the check.

I ended with 1.50 even

What is this the 90s? All out of space on the thread, turn the cassette over to side B?

The ongoing -PDO is statistically quite suggestive of low coupling in a broader NINO relative hemisphere no question.

BWI's average high on Xmas since 2015 is 52. December has been the month impacted the most by warming. The fact that SST's have warmed impacts the start of winter due to lag in water temps cooling. This has been documented...someone published monthly snowfall changes over the last 50 years and our area was the worst shade for December. January to March has been less impacted. Most of our decrease in snowfall climo has come from losing early in the season. It is what it is.

It's a pretty safe assumption that unless otherwise specified, comments in this thread pertain to the N HEM, since that's where we live. If you would like to discuss the S Hem, then the onus in on you to make that known. @SnoSki14originally commented on implications for N HEM winter, which is what prompted my reply.

ok, but your original comment that I reacted to implied that it’s only coupled in the tropics, which isn’t true.

Day 2 of the Great September Deluge and my gage has still not registered a drop.

Again...you want to deduce that it will couple in the mad latitudes of the N hem based on what is taking place in the s Hem, fine...different point. I agree with that to a large extent, but that doesn't change what is going on right now.

Trying to figure out when that region became the northern Hemisphere....

heh, as chilly as this seems ... we're actually above normal against climo with the day's lows so far. 68 to 70 is the climo max, BDL-FIT-ASH. Prooobably going to end up below that... we'll see but a sneaky effect here?