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The big problem is these days, there is no accountability for such forecasts, and those that make them will do everything to gaslight to tel you their forecast actually did verify or there is significant skill. I find this disingenuous and unethical. That doesn't mean LR forecasting should not be done or researched, but it is the classic "putting the wagon in front of the horse" here. Also, when you post on social media and want to be taken seriously, one should avoid levity, "flowery" language, and showing implied bias such as the post above ("who's excited for winter"). That is not being objective and scientific. Excited or not is irrelevant to the actual forecast and its skill! On moderated groups like here where it is wx weenies and the like, levity and implied bias are ok b/c we implicitly understand how things are for wx and forecasting and are a niche group, What we post is not meant for public "consumption" b/c they have no clue as to the nuances and idiosyncrasies of the profession, among other things!

Actually, 1972 qualifies as well. Followed two cold ENSOs, high solar, negative AMO, negative PDO. 1968 and 1972 are the best matches on the variables - +ENSO, following two -ENSOs, high solar, -AMO, -PDO.

Nice watch

18z NAM at least salvages Wed afternoon but the garbage slams in pretty soon in the evening.

The El Ninos following two cold ENSOs (not 1 or 3 or more or many neutrals), with high solar are relatively rare - 1968. 1982. 1997. 2009. 2018 each El Nino follows two cold Ensos in a row. Only 1968, 1982, 1997 are relatively active for solar. PDO is negative in 1968 with AMO negative. Both look likely/possible, we've got the cold flipped C from Iceland to all the way around West Africa. Stupidly cold in March as a blend but I doubt those three years will work. Conceptually, you have: 2026: -AMO, -PDO, El Nino, High Solar, after two cold ENSOs for this winter. That's like 1968, next closest is 1982/1997/2009/2018. Anti 2026: +AMO, +PDO, La Nina, Low Solar, after two warm ENSOs for the winter: That's 1995, 2016, 2020 Would look like this in concept - probably not as severe in reality. Somewhere between 2023-2024 and the above image is my guess.

Models forecasting two sig ZR events for NNE this week. It is quite rare to have sig ZR events this late in season in the NEUS (I'll let CoastalWx explain why, IF he knows! ), and in April it is practically unheard of. Please share any events that come to mind. This one from early March 1991 in NY state is the only "big" one in March in the NEUS in recent decades I know of. 3/3/1991 Freezing rain commenced over central and northwestern New York state late on this day and by the time it ended on the 4th, one to two inches of ice had accumulated in many places, resulting in the most costly natural disaster in the history of New York state up to this time. 19 counties were declared state disaster areas. At. one point, nearly 325,000 customers were without power and some did not get power back until the 16th. Storm damage exceeded $375M.

Can't wait for 80/62 tomorrow on the last day of March.

Well, you ain't seen nuthin' yet. Wait until Tue aftn! At least Weymouth should get some elevated TS.

got that right! same here in SE Mich. was messing around out back most of the evening mimicking my neighbors' yardwork (sans the work) and it feels legit sticky. currently 68/55 at PTK

Yeah, 00z HRRR says “what storms tomorrow?”. Literally nothing but a few showers and then storms south of the MI/IN/OH line in the evening.

The time has arrived to award the 2025-26 Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest trophy to @Cobalt. This snow season was a throwback to the good old days temperature-wise, as December, January, and February were not only each below 1991-2020 Mid-Atlantic normals, but even below 1871-2025 Mid-Atlantic averages. However, snowfall was limited by the now famous "snowcrete" snow/sleet storm of January 25th and near misses in late January and late February. Still, we did receive enough at the four airports to change the leader five times. Our 2022-23 champion @LittleVillageWxhung tough early on with a repeat of his lowball snow forecast that produced victory three years ago, but snowcrete then propelled@rjvanalsbriefly into the lead until final totals confirmed that @T. Augusthad taken command. T. August held on until February 23rd when @Chris78took over after early and late February snow. Headed into March, it appeared that he might win, but March 2nd and March 12th snow reports gave a brief lead to @Roger Smith. Alas, the initial BWI snow report for March 12th was inaccurate because despite hourly reports that strongly suggested that measurable snow had fallen there, the preliminary BWI snow report showed only a trace. When that report was corrected to 1.0 inch, @Cobaltsurged into the lead. Stunningly, we then learned that Roger had passed away on February 24th. Knowing Roger as I did, I am wondering if he sent down a message to the BWI weather authorities that their March 12th snow report was off-base and that he did not want to win the contest posthumously under false pretenses. In any event, it was a well-deserved victory for Cobalt, and Roger will have to wait for his next earthly sojourn to win his Mid-Atlantic trophy, even though he claimed many other successes during his long and illustrious forecasting career.

Yea, I have been saying that I don't see this is an uber-El Nino that will fry the east. Generally agree, though haven't delved deeply into analogs at this early juncture. 2002 is one I speculated on.....just conjecture right now.

That -WPO Fall loading pattern in SSTA really hit, too.

solid early summer-like evening.

Wednesday is worth keeping an eye on. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

I think the strong -QBO/high solar/modest La Niña combo wast timed just right for the past winter.

CAMS (apart from the ever-aggressive RRFS-A) have generally kept southern Wisconsin dry overnight, and the 00Z HRRR continues that trend. Not sure why were still in SPC's slight risk.

April 1982 and April 1997 were very cold US-wide. CFS has the opposite. If it isn't drunk on its own delusions, you'd say April 2026 looks like a blend of 1963, 2002, 2015, 2019, minus 1982, 1997. Conceptually, the big El Nino following big La Nina with low solar is a very cold winter here. We don't have that combo for this winter. We have high solar, good El Nino following weak La Nina/neutral. It's probably more of a very wet winter here than very cold. More likely: 1997 and 1982 already had dominant impacts on the global pattern by April, and the upcoming El Nino does not. April on the CFS looks a lot like winter 2004-2005, if the greatest warmth was fully shifted south.

Pulled this from IEM for LOT, 1/1-3/31. Looks like most active start by a good margin in the last 20 years when considering all modes. 2026: 5 watches, 59 warnings, 135 storm reports 2025: 4 watches, 36 warnings, 92 storm reports 2024: 2 watches, 32 warnings, 80 storm reports 2023: 1 watch, 16 warnings, 25 storm reports 2022: 2 watches, 18 warnings, 23 storm reports 2021: 0 watches, 0 warnings, 0 storm reports 2020: 2 watches, 4 warnings, 4 storm reports 2019: 1 watch, 16 warnings, 16 storm reports 2018: 0 watches, 1 warning, 1 storm report 2017: 3 watches, 45 warnings, 62 storm reports 2016: 2 watches, 11 warnings, 12 storm reports 2015: 0 watches, 0 warnings, 0 storm reports 2014: 0 watches, 0 warnings, 0 storm reports 2013: 0 watches, 3 warnings, 3 storm reports 2012: 1 watch, 6 warnings, 8 storm reports 2011: 0 watches, 6 warnings, 5 storm reports 2010: 0 watches, 0 warnings, 0 storm reports 2009: 1 watch, 14 warnings, 16 storm reports 2008: 2 watches, 17 warnings, 4 storm reports 2007: 3 watches, 8 warnings, 4 storm reports 2006: 4 watches, 7 warnings, 25 storm reports Keep saying this, but March has been incredible when you consider all the svr action, warmth, & yes - snow for some.

Sure...just like 2009-2010 could have been snowier up here and the Pats could have been undefeated in 2007. But I'm a fan of the scoreboard.

All joking aside, small sample size or not, the data that we have implies that an El Niño stronger than 2.0 is going to slide east...it's why the strongest events are usually east-based.

It's rare to get a strong west-based Nino but 91-92 certainly could have been colder..

You think if March 2015 were as prolific as February 2015, I could have achieved a 65" snowpack? My position is that we won't see that....if we ever do, feel free to dig me up in 2080 or whatever and brag, if you have your head cryogenically frozen or something.

Sure.....I've been at that point for about an hour.