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I’ve had both my kids and a neighbor text me about the storm today. And it was just mentioned in a work meeting (although they didn’t ask for my opinion). Normies gonna get crazy in another day or two if things stay on track.

Reasonable fear of a rug pull. So many of us have been heart broken for too long lol.

If we got 2”+ QPF with temps less than 28 throughout and less than 6” frozen this would be an epic epic fail

1” of ZR at ATL (or anywhere) would be bad enough. That hasn’t happened at ATL since 2/12/2014 and that much was only from Hartsfield S and mainly E. (That’s the one that killed the Eisenhower tree at Augusta National). Other than the terrible 1/1973 icestorm, which had temps only barely below 32, the last I could find giving ATL 2”+ was the devastating ~2” icestorm of 12/28-29/1935. Temps did drop into the 20s for part of that and probably as cold as mid 20s for the coldest, similar to the 12Z Euro. I read ATL news articles on this 30 years ago at the downtown library. It was horrible. So, essentially the 12Z Euro is calling for the worst combo of heaviest/very cold ZR at ATL in 90 years! Thus, of course it would be correct to bet on it not being as bad as modeled based on history. But unfortunately there’s a small chance it could actually happen like 90 years ago. Let’s hope not! Link to ATL day by day historical data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ffc @suzook@dsaur

12z diagnostic mslp, prate, type, etc... and 12z ensemble spread at forecast hour 132:

Snippet from Mount Holly latest AFD- they are the better local forecast office, until they mention the 12k NAM. In fact, snow probabilities of the NBM have actually gone up quite a bit, now showing a 70-90% chance of 2+ inches of snow and a 60-80% chance of 6+ inches of snow for areas south of Philadelphia, with probabilities gradually falling off further north. Likewise, the probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) has increased further with now almost our entire area expected to observe at least Moderate Level winter storm impacts. As noted with the previous shift, these probabilities are higher than the prior forecast cycle.

Man you are in a zero craps to give mode these days aren't you? Lol

Bib Ryan’s famous “of biblical proportions” for 1996

Could be thunder snow. 13.8” wow. JAX does this graph factor in ratio or standard 10:1?

I need to jump in on this. I miss updating the totals. I'm at 21.5" on the season. I may have missed a 1-2"er we've had a lot of them here.

Actually weak La Niña winters are great for big winter snows

Horst is great as well.

C'mon you have to be more creative than that. That saying has been around since the 90's. Now this is brand spanking new! https://bubble-wrap.party/

NAM at 48-56 hours HRRR at 36 to tighten it up. Thursday evening will tell us all what is going to happen, The watches should be out by then

I'm having a hard time concentrating on enjoying my journey. I spent all of 4 hours offline doing some hiking but I can't stay away. For those who care, Horst (remember him) tweeted 2 hours ago - classic setup for a major winter storm. A crippling snow is possible...and so is a few inches. I'm sure he'll post again in the coming days.

That's it. People are anxious.. need something to look at NOW and either validate their hopes or stress the fuck over.

It is anxiety talking for sure because this is make or break for the winter after years of paltry events.

18Z NAM trying to throw us a teaser before the big event. Sign me up!

This was the surface depiction for the January 2022 sleet bomb. This stayed all sleet and snow in the triad (I think a little light ZR to end, but nothing significant). Just goes to show what a strong surface high will do for you. It seems very unlikely that Raleigh and points N & W will have a changeover to ZR for any significant amount of time. The question is will it be a 4-6" sleet bomb or a historic snowstorm

Revive the dgex!

Most models have that piece of energy, but it's strung out and probably too warm for anything except rain or mix

If you ask I’m sure he caused to happen with his birds

I mean, I’m happy to travel and want to be part of this meeting, but I’m going to miss potentially the biggest snow in 6-10 years over my dead body

National Weather Service Nashville TN 1137 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1134 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 - High confidence in winter weather with travel impacts this weekend. Stay tuned for the latest. - Cold temperatures are expected to remain through early next week which will prolong impacts. - Scattered showers expected tomorrow/tomorrow night with precipitation remaining as rain. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1053 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 After a frigid start to the day, temperatures are climbing through the 20s this morning. High pressure is centered over the area but it will slowly move east this afternoon which will allow weak southerly flow to start. With that, temperatures will not be as cold tonight, but still expect lows in the 20s. A weak trough and associated surface low will approach on Wednesday dragging a weak surface front. Ahead of the front, the southerly winds will increase along with moisture. Models are showing medium to high chances of scattered showers starting Wednesday morning. The shower chances will linger into Wednesday night along the plateau. It looks like the precipitation will remain all liquid with this system. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1053 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Behind Wednesday`s system, temperatures will remain around normal for this time of year. Surface high pressure will slide eastward from the central plains and quickly move across the Ohio River Valley. Behind that, a reinforcing cold front will move into the area on Friday. This will set the stage for this weekend`s system. An upper level trough will be situated off the southern coast of California on Friday. Ahead of the trough, southwesterly flow will send anomalously high moisture through the southern plains and into the southeast. This will override the cold air that settles into our area on Friday. In addition, some of that energy is expected to eject out of the Baja region eastward on Saturday. There are questions regarding how much energy is ejected and if it phases with upper level energy coming out of Canada. Regardless, precipitation is likely to start as snow either Friday night or Saturday morning. The question is what happens after that. The model solutions that eject more energy out of the Baja develop a stronger inverted surface trough over the southeast and possibly reaching into our area. This would do two things. First, it would enhance QPF amounts and second, it would draw warm air northward which would bring ice and sleet into the picture. Right now, sleet and freezing rain chances are highest closer to the Tennessee/Alabama border but there is still a lot of variation in model solutions. So what are the key messages regarding this weekend? Bottom line... we have high confidence in winter weather with impacts this weekend. Go ahead and make preparations and don`t plan on traveling if you don`t need to. It is not a simple setup that gives us high confidence in snow or ice amounts. Yes, there are individual models that say a large portion of the area will receive a foot of snow. BUT, on the flip side, there are models that bring the warm air well into Middle Tennessee which would produce more freezing rain or sleet which would crush the hearts of snow lovers, but still produce significant impacts. Any precipitation that falls will likely stick around as the cold air will be entrenched into at least early next week. We`ll continue to monitor the forecast trends in the models, so stay tuned as there is still some time to figure this out. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue for the taf period. The low level jet will increase after 06z introducing a window for low level wind shear at BNA/CKV/MQY. Surface winds will increase mid to late Wednesday morning allowing for the LLWS to subside. Light scattered showers could impact the terminals starting from west to east Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 38 27 49 34 / 0 0 70 40 Clarksville 38 26 45 30 / 0 10 70 10 Crossville 33 21 47 34 / 0 0 50 60 Columbia 40 25 49 35 / 0 0 70 40 Cookeville 33 23 49 35 / 0 0 60 60 Jamestown 31 21 48 33 / 0 0 50 50 Lawrenceburg 39 25 50 37 / 0 0 70 50 Murfreesboro 38 23 50 36 / 0 0 60 50 Waverly 38 27 44 31 / 0 0 70 20 &&

Omg yes lol