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Yep. Good track but a 50-50 ridge isnt what we want lol. I still like that period but we just cant know how all the players will interact to produce the ultimate outcome.

That was so close. Southern energy, cold nearby, phasing. Looks like something behind it possibly. Clearly not a winter cancel run. Just for the wi terms over crew, I'll drop this here

HH Gfs came close around the 15th.

Euro and GFS are like 36hrs of dews SoP. I would love that.

Nick is going to hear shit if the eagles lose the second seed because he rested the starters. Bears losing 13-0 (good), Birds down 10-7 (bad). Both games at the half...

I actually miss thunderstorms! This cold and no snow is awful.

Gfs showing a coastal . Big potential for mid month.

And you say he got there from Williamsport on just a quarter bale of hay?

Soak it in.

Wrong. Still plenty of time to score. We have not even entered prime climo. Mid January to Mid February. You have all of February. Again as I have said the majority of top 10 snows in Nashville are in FEBRUARY! Look if it does not snow that’s the hand we’re dealt. This cancel winter crap gets old. The world is a mess right now. Let’s try & have some positivity in here to take our minds off of it.

Yes I am.

Yea for me a quarter tank in a month is a lot.

Got it with Covid as well

Lol...You're a teacher, right?

Glad to see you post. Hopefully your work gets less chaotic this year!

Ok. My bad. It kinda came across differently. You could have articulated that better in your original post.

FWIW (and it's probably not worth much IMO) since 1985, the years listed below were Ninos that were preceded by double dip (20-21, 21-22, and 22-23 don't count as that's a triple dip) <0.5 PDO Ninas and/or neutrals (at or below 0*C). 09-10: DCA: 56.1" | IAD: 73.2" 02-03: DCA: 40.4" | IAD: 50.1" 97-98: DCA: 0.1" | IAD: 5.9" 86-87: DCA: 31.1" | IAD: 42.7" If we were to remove the ones that were too strong/weak to fit that 0.5-1.2 category, we're left with this. 02-03: DCA: 40.4" | IAD: 50.1" 86-87: DCA: 31.1" | IAD: 42.7" IMO it doesn't matter because we're dealing with such a small sample size but at least it's worth taking a look at. Probably belongs in the ENSO thread as well lol

If you could live thru the Blizzard of 66 KU storm knowing the end result, would you stay at your home base and enjoy a classic KU snowstorm or would you travel to Oswego and endure the 8.5' of LES? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_blizzard_of_1966

Looks like that's a +270dm anomaly on the mean, so given average model error from that range, we have a 50% chance of having +140dm> anomaly.. the hope is that it moves a little north, instead of staying over the n. pacific water.

Missed my point. I know it is not snowing this week....the ensembles beyond 7 days stink and people should not get anxious about it. If the ensembles light up next week inside 7 days that means we have something to track because inside a week they are worth looking at because they are more accurate as you state above.

At the end of the run?

Yeah westbabylonweather was also claiming that burning1/4 tank in a month was a lot for him? Seems good to normal to me. My house is 1100 square foot and I’ll burn 1/3-1/2 a tank during the most severe cold weather here on LI during winter

Enjoy the 4 day warm up…

Negative PNA is not what you want to see in January. In January it has a higher SE ridge correlation than other Winter months. Other guidance had been showing -EPO/-WPO, more of an arctic ridge than N. pacific ridge. Hopefully it trends back.