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  2. Stx_Thunder
    3 in. + hailstones appears to be ongoing in the elevated supercell with a very notable hail core on radar and sfc temp around 60 F, in Athens vicinity in NTX.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    What would you say is the chance of a continued El Nino in 27-28? 5%? 10%? I would say 5-10%
  4. weathafella
    I’ll turn 110 that year in December. Big party planning in the works!
  5. Voyager
    52 degrees...ugh. Too damn cold.
  6. stormy
    West to East as the LP moves from Parkersburg to Pittsburgh.
  7. Stx_Thunder
    SPC has (Finally) got there act together. Indicating the level 2/2 severe hail intensity area in the latest D1 outlook this afternoon, very close to SAT. Which I mostly agree on for the very large (potentially 5+ in. hail) target zone. Convective initiation is beginning in the Edwards Plateau. San Antonio area no doubt, definitely needs to be on alert through this evening. Abnormally steep ML lapse rates around & above 8, evidently remain across the state today with large hail producing elevated storms ongoing behind the sfc polar front in N-NETX. Even where sfc temps are actually in the 50s.
  8. michsnowfreak
    Id think its way too early to say anything. I mean "potential" is there for a lot of stuff. But with the ability to make snow im sure ski areas will be fine regardless.
  9. kgottwald
    The rain bands had been moving SW to NE, but it looks like they've shifted to W to E. Some yellows on the path to hit Fairfax.
  10. A-L-E-K
    Loser shit, hate it
  11. CoastalWx
    Yesterday was cool here but sunny. Today is dog shit here.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's probably an error. I haven't played around with it yet, but I will probably start keeping a record to see if there is an advantage vs the market. May is 62F - I'm going to say below.
  13. CAPE
    I'll take a 12z Euro, 12z ICON, 19z HRRR blend. All a half inch+ here. Probably another fail though lol.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    The actual PDO-Strong El Nino connection is not as strong as you would think. Here is the strongest events, it's pretty close to neutral - bigger cold pool being hugging, right outside the ENSO warm SSTs, I'd say more in the North Pacific High area (-NOI).
  15. Met1985
    Today's euro is showing multiple shots of well below normal air coming in the next 10 days.
  16. NorthArlington101
    I’m not convinced that’s a TDS in this radar snapshot at least tho I’m hardly a pro here. EDIT: looking at the radar loop I think it *was* one at a point before this screenshot but idk if I t think it’s on the ground here. Might be some debris fallout
  17. SnoSki14
    It's May in the CC era, it doesn't take much to get above normal. The pattern is more about keeping the 90+ heat away than enforcing a cool pattern
  18. SnowenOutThere
    I don't like to criticize the NWS but Charleston dropped the T-storm warning and now has this completely unwarned as it approaches a town which just seems really bad and one of the worst misses I've seen when it comes to tornado signatures. It had a better circulation and more lofted debris ball beforehand too! It even had a separate debris ball 30 minutes ago now!
  19. Today
  20. TimB
    As I recall, we did the same in the first half of May 2017. I remember a day or two that struggled to get out of the 40s, which is what this looks like. Not 2020 levels by any stretch, but still pretty cold. Regardless of intensity, it does seem to have a little staying power, especially on the Euro ensemble. The trough reloads and swings back through later next week and it stays troughy in the east through the end of the run.
  21. tamarack
    Heading into our 29th summer here, all the hail that has landed in our yard (only 2,000 sq.ft., but still) wouldn't fill a one-gallon bucket. One storm might've dropped a flattened chunk 5/8" on its longest surface. (On August 30, 2007, nickels/quarters hail 6-8 miles southeast from from our place accumulated up to 4" and fully defoliated/partially debarked trees on about 2,000 acres, so that kind of excitement isn't impossible here.) Low 60s for the high here, about 10° above the forecast. 3 hours of midday PC did its work.
  22. kgottwald
    Doesn't look like it will get to 68 today as forecast. IAD topping out at 59 so far.
  23. SnowenOutThere
    Cell I was talking about in WV has a well defined couplet with a debris ball though is still under a severe T-storm warning
  24. dendrite
    It's funny that he thought he could keep getting away with it. 61F to 72F to 61F between 9-10pm. lol https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/obhistory.php?date=2026-04-15&sortdir=asc&windunits=mph&station=LFPG&network=FR__ASOS&metar=0&madis=0
  25. Maggie Valley Steve
    Yeah and a slight chance at some wet snow at the highest elevations Saturday night.
  26. SnowenOutThere
    Actual analysis and honestly, I think SW VA and especially eastern WV might be in for an interesting evening. Though we are socked in the wedge; WV and points west of Shenandoah will clear out high level clouds and are getting surface heating, as a consequence we are seeing CAPE values rise past 1000 pretty quick. The three hour CAPE change really shows that area of clearing in the warm sector ahead of the front too. If we are able to burn enough of the low clouds (which is doubtful) then even central VA could get some surface based storms. Our surface LRs do suck - as expected - but clearly that's not stopping rotating supercells from occurring at time of writing in WV. After all our wind environment is on the "concerning" side for what we usually see in our area. We have good turning with height (seen with HRRR predicted sounding for Cvill). I mainly felt compelled to make this post after seeing the cell over central WV which has a nice rotating updraft and hook echo. Feels like tonight is a night that probably won't see anything happen; but, on a rare chance could be a night to remember for some unlucky folks.
  27. BxEngine
    My soil has been above 55 for over a week now, the top layer was frosty that last cold day but since its been fine. If i wait too much longer i worry that the grass wont take before our usual july dry heatwave thatll cook it. Taking a chance but i dont want to spend hundreds or thousands just for grass either lol
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