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THIS

That raises a good point about 3rd party vendor snowfall graphics. Weather models don't forecast snowfall explicitly. They generate QPF and temperature at numerous vertical pressure levels at each horizontal grid point. 3rd party algorithms translate that information into a ptype forecast. But sometimes more than one ptype is present at the same time. Snowfall can be under-counted in cases where the warm layer is shallow and not-pronounced because the algorithm may lump it all as sleet when it's actually a mix or ptypes or rimed snowflakes. See the Little Rock NAM sounding below.

You can probably get some really healthy packs up your way in the right year with good retention that area has. Heck maybe even this year could get pretty decent. March 18 was prob high water mark for this area in general since I've moved here. This was at Mitchs, so 2k, but pretty impressive since alot of folks live in the 1500-2000ft zone. I think there was more added after this too IIRC.

IF this is still on the models on Tuesday - time for another storm thread

And you all complain about me lol

It does have flares of 2018 progression via breaking down the SPV but no two years tend to be alike as for surface/500mb progression. Should have a better idea as we close out the month how things should translate in the mean time we have some fun patterns evolving that need to be watched. If I had to take an early guess I would say we run the risk of continuation of the current pattern as the the downwelling, were it to occur, would just enhance the already lower atmosphere -AO pattern. That early wave 1 warming did quite a bit to help as bluewave pointed out while it would be nice to extend this cold/snow pattern i'm fine with winter breaking down around presidents day. lol After tomorrows snow (8-14" looks to be the range for us) we should be less than 10" away from hitting average with some solid potential trying to show up. Let's see what happens as the cold starts to relax a bit.

I get that this storm will have a dry slot, but come on, right? Too consistent run to run... it's like the British are screwing with New Yorkers.

might have some damage here

Latest Ice forecast from LWX lowered for my area in Nelson County. Had previously been at 1/4 inch.

i think some areas will get those amounts, and with sleet on top removal will take time. but those are not the most densely populated areas, at least in nj. the rest of us will be ok. but sleet is deceptively dangerous. its not only this storm, i will read headlines now about storms in other parts of the country and it will be like 6 inches. come on folks...

Crazy.

Man, I really hate ice.

Finally getting bigger flakes! Some quarters, first time had only been graupel and tiny flakes until now. Awesome, I thought I might not see larger flakes with this storm. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Some explode.

I remember years ago Bernier said, what happens in Nashville, will happen in Richmond. I’ve always remembered him saying that.

Currently sitting at Papermill Road Knoxville and temp has gotten up to 35°. The snow flurries have seemed to tapered away for now. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Keeps creeping up... This is at 14:1(EEN is closest airport to me) Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Guys clean up this thread. Take it to banter.

When we lived in Fort Kent, we saw the clear air sparkles several times. Needed to be flat calm and -20 or colder. There's a French term in the St. John Valley (perhaps other places, too) for the phenomenon that translates "the cold coming down".

Are you just going to post this every 30 minutes like the TWC forecast? .

I’ll take a turd duster to freshen things up as we continue our barrow, AK climate

https://x.com/daniloevan11/status/2015099737947382146?s=46 .

Last few frames of CC show the warm nose really starting to rise north: