All Activity

It is dead still outside. Makes 45 degrees seem kind of nice.

tacoman - thanks very much for your post, and good information you shared. I probably went off the deep end a bit due to my frustration over the anemic pattern we've been in. I hope you're right that it changes soon!

We didnt get a KU would be the answer.

This is the actual 500mb pattern last winter on the 11 days which .20 or more of precipitation fell from Philly to Boston. Very fast extended Pacific Jet along with a Southeast ridge linking up with the Greenland block with a warm storm track through the Great Lakes. So the NYC average temperature last winter during the days with the heavier precipitation was 41° which was too warm to reach anywhere near average seasonal snowfall. Long range models consistently missed this pattern beyond 1 week out. Has nothing to due with luck or Monday morning quarterbacking. The storm track is a function of the pattern. I still think it’s possible to change things up a bit. But I am not going to make that forecast based on a week 2 or 3 model forecast. it has to show up in the short term in order to be believable. 11 day 500 mb composite DJF 24-25 when .20 of precipitation fell from Philly to Boston

The Washington DC Metropolitan Region will get beneficial rains from the system that just missed us. You guys are downstream of us and will benefit from this weather system as it continues to develop as it translates E/NE with time. Another rainmaker will help Washington out right after that. Same reason come December/January/February you will see snows from the intersection of moisture contributions from Texas and the Gulf of Mexico and cold air. Our misses and failures will become YOUR BIG STORM DIRECT HITS ON YOUR ENTIRE SUB this entire winter! First beneficial rains, later translating into really good snows that will pile up and wear out your backs as you will be forced to dig snow after snow after snow!

sure, we can play Monday morning QB and say "nooooo those patterns were actually bad because they didn't produce snow!" but that's disingenuous

not to harp on last year, but models actually did a good job showing the amount of high latitude blocking that developed. to say that a good pattern never developed is just incorrect

The storm track pattern most of the time since 2018-2019 has been Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream. This has been a result of the record WPAC warmth both in the subtropics and midlatitudes with a much faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet along the thermal gradient between the Siberian cold and WPAC to south of Aleutians warmth. Storm track #1 features a trough in the West and a Southeast ridge. So the low deepens crossing the Great Lakes with a warm storm track and mostly rain along the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston. Track# 2 features poor wavelength spacing in the fast Pacific flow so the storm hugs the I-78 to I-84 corridor favoring the interior regions away from the coast for the heaviest snows. Both these tracks feature too strong of a Southeast Ridge. Track #3 has a kicker low coming into Western North America in the fast Pacific flow keeping the Southern Stream suppressed and preventing a true 40/70 benchmark snowstorm track. Southeast ridge relaxes too much and the low slips to the Southeast. Even with a winter average temperature closer to the long term average last year, there was no deviation in this storm track pattern. Many times since February 2022 the long range forecast models have show big pattern changes during weeks 2 and 3. But we are yet to see a big change in this model bias. So this is why I like to temper long range expectations and wait until an actual pattern change shows up in the short term for it to be believable. RMM chart forecasts showing solid MJO 8 passages beyond 10 days out have either weakened before phase 8 due to the warm pool near the Maritime Continent or made it into 8 with lingering forcing hanging back near the Maritime Continent. So we didn’t get the true MJO 8 like we last had in January 2022. There have also been several events involving the stratosphere which haven’t panned out for snow or cold here. So this is why I don’t trust long range models to actually show pattern changes during weeks 2 and 3 since we have been through this numerous times before. But if we can actually get a shift in this pattern into the under 120 hr model forecast, then it will be something to be happy about.

explain to me how the pattern from last year never developed. i want receipts

Bastardi with a list of similar MJO Rotation Year's. Interesting. https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1991636264131375456?t=RlTjHjywEdZ-E3BZU65rwA&s=19

Ya, it can be understood a couple different ways. I was thinking if 17F is the highest, and -4F was the coldest, the difference between the two is 21 degrees, and that would be the “Range” is what I was thinking. But again, maybe I misunderstood?

Nah...very, very predictable. To be followed up with a "like" emoji by Snowman.

I'd be okay with something like December 2017, when the warm-up was very brief, and the majority of the 2nd half of December is cold. This is certainly possible. I mean, we're overdue for one.

Down to 31. Frosty outside on the deck.

You always post the same day 15+ ensembles that show a supposedly amazing pattern that never comes to fruition

Bet the over on that 25 years for some of us…

18z gfs would push the 62° on Thanksgiving too if they could pop some sun in that warm sector.

I haven't seen many lightning videos, but the rain and hail videos were something else.

We have had numerous model forecast attempts beyond 10 days to try and shift the storm tracks pattern since February 2022. But none have made to under 120 hrs on the models It’s still possible that something could eventually shift. But it won’t be believable until it shows up under 120 hrs.

BOS will prob get colder post-Tday on that weekend. Into the 20s I’d think.

Also I'm on my nightly 5 mile jaunt while the kiddo is swimming and it's misting out. Winds are calm but I'm figuring there has to be some low level moisture being pumped in from the coast Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Unless it’s playing the B1G. Hopefully we see a big midwestern OL steamroll that ridge in a couple of weeks.

I read it as the November lowest temperature has ranged from 17F (in two years) to -4F as the coldest.

Are you staying Friday or Saturday night there? I can see us back here with a few fluffy inches watching as some death band spitting out giant half inch dendies so hard you can't even hear the PA system Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

That map blizz had with the snow ripping up that way was for 18z Saturday Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk