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Was a great run honestly. .

The good news, and we've seen it before ... Snow on th ground, fresh snowpack, will definitely help with radiational cooling and enhance the risk for sub-zero min temps assuming we can decouple. BUT, it can also provide a nice layer of insulation to prevent the intense cold from seeping in the subflooring. Let's hope so anyway!

With the Baja ejecting...we end up with a double moisture feed from the Gulf and the Pacific..if there is cyclogenisis (Ukie/GEM) the 850 winds (howling from south on those 2) are going to shove the 850 frontal right over top the low level arctic cold. A wave is only going to shove it right close to the southern border, 850 winds way weaker.

I think you’re right on this one. We’re past where Feb 20th failed

Euro out to 4 hours. Very little ticks do far

A lot of that is sleet and ZR south of 40

Falling in line with other guidance. Major mix storm for NC and major snow in Virginia

Euro starting. Most important run since Jan 2016. @stormtracker, lead the way.

That Canadian is a burial…wow. Can it find a nut again?

Euro has begun

I HATE ice storms with a vengeance in Buda. HOWEVER I will take it IF it will bring DCA 4 feet of pow.

X

I didnt think the GEFS was that bad,most QPFS Its shown in TN that run

Winter cancelled. lol

Just a couple of observations. After the storm the models are showing a pretty dangerous artic outbreak. Like pipe bursting stuff. That cold is legit. Straight out of the arctic. This is also going to be a historic ice storm somewhere in the south. Over an ich of QPF as rain falling into sub 20 degree temps is horrific. I have seen it once before. And it is no joke. Just a massive hit to a large part of the country. Historic if it is being modelled accurately.

Imagine the reaction image when the euro does this

Ukie with ratios would be 11-15 for the area.

00z AI GFS is slightly further south than previous run, heavier moisture and a tad colder, looks to be a significant winter storm.

That was the Ukmet scenario of 12z which it did hold. Tbh everything I’ve seen for 0z runs has moved in that direction (minus the ai gfs slightly)

I think a long duration storm is in the cards with this one.

Yes it is and now a nearly closed low Georgia area

Thank you, it’s all in good fun and it’s an amazing reaction image

0z Ukie is apparently very good as well!

22.1/0.9 at midnight with WNW wind at 9 gusting 19 mph. Wind chill 9 to 7.

Let's hope the Euro shows the "Greatness" thing that @SnowenOutThere was talking about.