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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense since the drop is due to the El Nino being focused east of 3.4 right now, rather then any type of reduced expression of El Nino across the hemisphere
  3. GaWx
    The ONI peak in OND fell by the same 0.5 over the same period: Aug 1-10: ONI peak +4.15 Aug 30-Sep 8: ONI peak +3.65 and likely to fall further just like RONI as per the location of the blue lines So, the difference between the peaks of ONI and RONI didn’t widen.
  4. SethWx
    gas up the snowblowers folks
  5. Snowedin
    Meh by early-mid swamptober, we’ll be back to our usual deluges thanks to screaming nor’easters and stalled out lows by the Great Lakes. Embrace the relative calm before bratty kids and their bewildered parents are nearly blown away by another pre Halloween torch cyclone!
  6. GaWx
    I know ‘26 became the most E based of any Nino on record in early Sep as I posted here 2 days ago: Although 1+2 has warmed in Sep, it like RONI has also fallen in OND fwiw though by not as much (0.3 vs 0.5) making it slightly more E based in OND than it had before: Aug 9-18: 1+2 OND +4.2 Aug 19-28: 1+2 OND +4.0 Aug 29-Sep 7: 1+2 OND +3.9
  7. ChescoWx
    Thanks to requests I have one more add to the chescowx.com website. It now includes a current weather tab with current conditions at East Nantmeal along with the current 10-day East Nantmeal ChescoWx forecast system and a forecast verification scoring comparison to the current National Weather Service forecast. Along with a breakdown of models used by % for the ChescoWx forecast. Of note ChescoWx has been scored better on 13 of the first 14 days of review to date. https://chescowx.com/current-weather/
  8. ChescoWx
    Thanks to requests I have one more add to the chescowx.com website. It now includes a current weather tab with current conditions at East Nantmeal along with the current 10-day East Nantmeal ChescoWx forecast system and a forecast verification scoring comparison to the current National Weather Service forecast. Along with a breakdown of models used by % for the ChescoWx forecast. Of note ChescoWx has been scored better on 13 of the first 14 days of review to date. https://chescowx.com/current-weather/
  9. MarcmmKU
    Latest in the season overnight low of < 60 F for central park? No < 60 F overnight lows forecast for the next 10 days at least which has to be a record? Dews too high these days.
  10. Torch Tiger
    Smoothed anomalies, I expect like 60%
  11. FXWX
    I'm ok with that... Overall a great early fall Goldilocks pattern; not too warm; not too cold, not too wet and not too dry... Certainly not extreme... A little boring for sure but with the likelihood of an active East Coast winter, I'm ok with boring right now...
  12. Brian5671
    NFL pick em pool is up in the sports thread! Get your picks in
  13. TheClimateChanger
    @donsutherland1 I was playing around with Astra to see how well it could do to create high-resolution maps of past temperature data. I'd say these weren't too bad. I tested it on this past July and the "hottest month ever" (registered trademark) of July 1936. This was using unadjusted data with bias correction.
  14. SouthCoastMA
    I've been watering twice a day for the past 3 days, after overseeding on Monday morning. This dryness is killing my soul
  15. FXWX
    Agree...
  16. IWXwx
    Blowtorch
  17. Cobalt
    What've you got for the individual months DJF?
  18. gravitylover
    That's a Vega that's not an all out rust bucket on the right. Amazing...
  19. Today
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    You are 100% right as it pertains to the seasonal mean, but I think the trick is to try and focus on when the pattern may stray from said mean. I think that is where the more skilled forecasters have a chance to distinguish themselves. Same thing as if it we have a fall of 2009 type regime....that was a an obvious snow-season for the mid atl leading in, but when are the thaws??
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    @ORH_wxman @CoastalWx Check this site out....nice site for a quick and easy guide on pattern diagnostics. Nothing new to us, but it helps to illustrate when you feel like a pattern is good, bad or ugly.
  22. Brian5671
    Lawns still lush and green here-I think we'd need another week before anything needs water
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Cool site...def. adding this to my arsenal. Thanks.
  24. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  25. maley.chris78@gmail.com
    No. They need to take their steroids in order to win games!
  26. forkyfork
    many people are calling this the easiest long range forecast of all time
  27. forkyfork
    warm and rainy
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