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Good data! The NAO looks to be negative for this potential event but you are correct that the PNA is the teleconnection with the largest impact on SE winter weather IMO. This is 10 days out and the teleconnection forecasts can be tricky so maybe it will change. I haven't looked at the MJO forecast.

2-4 Saturday . 3-5 midweek biggie next weekend. Lots of snow coming for all here

Ha those were fun and I only attended 2. I heard the Eastern ones were a good time If @H2O and I were bad friends we would def share at least one loltastic photo of @stormtracker but we’re good people and won’t do that to him

The RGEM is booty cheeks

Flakes were huge, but it has switched to rain in Boone, at least for the moment.

Today is not the day to stand near a slanted roof. I saw a major avalanche from my classroom window.

I read their cocorahs report and it mentioned morning snow and then again at 11pm. I wasnt home in the AM to know if it snowed and it wasn’t snowing (at least at my house) at 11

2/7 looks likely but prob not much…like C-2” type deal. Though I’d watch your area for a bit more. Wednesday seems least likely for anything. Several pieces of guidance have nothing.

I do think an ENSO Feb mismatch in the NE is plausible when it comes to the surface temps vs. H5. Nina-like aloft at 500mb, but Nino-like below normal surface temps.

We need to start an American WX winter season thread bingo card. East coast pattern zzzzzzzz (Next month) be rockin' CAD (Beavis rant) ...etc.

Longer. A lot of the public has gotten used to blowtorches and 25% climo snow since this crap started in 2018-19. Now we’re getting a classic NE winter and folks are freaking out.

Separate topic… What does everybody think about starting a new discussion beginning in November of this year? Next year is supposed to be even more active possibly with El Niño it may be nice to start a new one it hasn't been started since 2023.

Snow was freezer burned last week.

I've been talking about this for a few days now. Friday and Saturday are going to be interesting weather days. Strong cold front moves through with snow showers setting up in parts of Richmond, that could leave an inch of snow Then on Saturday we could see wind gusts as much as 50 mph in RVA and up to 70 mph as you go south and east to the beaches. Hampton Roads, NN, Va Beach etc. etc. Windchill values could be below zero on Saturday. Not being talked about enough imo on the news etc, but could have power outages on Saturday in the daytime unfortunately.

Snowing in Oneida. Very uncomfortable outside. It’s sticking.

Yep, the snow melt we’ve had is largely from the sun at a slightly higher angle every day.

Cracked freezing today for the first time in 13 days altho not by much (hi was 34). I must say it feels like it's about 60 out lol. Amazing how the body adjusts to temps.

Snowy snowier snowiest

^I thought that was CAPE or SRH at first glance and did a sharp double take

This is where being the only board pervert comes in handy.

February 18

Has anyone ever studied the relationship between Nor'easters that go out to sea and the sudden weight gain of ducks? I had to get rid of a lot of bread that I purchased before this past weekend's storm.

Nam looks good. Still need to fine tune dong placement.

The brief return to freezing temperatures hasn't been all that impressive. From the point where we went below freezing at 7pm on January 23, we were consecutively below freezing for 234 hours ending at 12:45 PM on Monday. Through now, there have been 9.5 hours out of the past 293 that have been at or above freezing with a maximum temperature of 34° : Monday 2/2 Above freezing from 12:45 - 4:50 pm (4 hours 5 minutes) - max temp 34° Tuesday 2/3 Above freezing 10:15 to 11:00am and 1:30 - 1:45 pm (1 hour total) - max temp 33° Today 2/4 Above freezing 11:10am - 3:30 pm (4 hours 20 minutes total) - max temp 34° Current temperature is 31.6° (3:58pm)

The EPS hasn't been amazing this season IMO. I'll take a blend of everything at 10 days and not even focus on one model suite.