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you better go adjust your numbers in the snowfall contest

I can't see plain rain anywhere except maybe the immediate coast, but a sleet-fest is definitely on the table.

Maybe the eastern tip of LI changes to rain but I highly doubt anyone else does unless we see prolonged onshore winds given the severity of the cold air coming in. I could see freezing rain happening if we get a shallower cold layer at the surface. Bottom line is hopefully this NAM run is wrong.

Selling the low tucking towards NYC before sliding east toward ACK.

RRFS is ass Although NAM is also ass in its own ways

just read the updates for upton and mt holly and they see a northern trend, esp on the gfs. uncertain about how much mixing but mt holly flat out says the I 95 corridor is gonna ping, and there will be rain south. still going 8-12 but keeping cards close to the chest.

Just got back from a run up to Carlisle. Had to drop off a package for the younger Ms. J. Went to lunch at the local pizza place just off campus. She told me that her College is all ready for this. The emails have been sent out with instructions and that the Dinning Hall will be open. Took her out for some supplies so that she is not caught off guard. Mainly her ESA Guinea Pig needed veggies. Good thing she did not move her car as any student who is parked on the main street is being told to move their cars to the lot she is in. It was getting filled up. Once I hit the PA line on 15 started seeing all the entrance and and exit ramps brined up and ready to go. Nothing in MD as of yet but I am sure it is coming.

Still rooting for the NAM. For a few times in my life LOL!

This model has been pretty solid this winter. Do we have a comparison with the prior run?

I'm a Dolphins fan I've become numb to disappointment

I hate it but usually just take the guidance that blasts the mix line fastest and furthest north is usually right.

Btw is this a case where if its snowing hard enough that it will be snow for the fringe areas?

18z nam blip, will come back to its senses by 0z.

Yup, Beware of the warm tongue more times then not.

Ive seen storms here literally cut in half,raining in soundview,the bx,snowing in Riverdale,the bx. This storm might be one of those. Southern parts of the city a bit diff then northern manhattan,the bronx.

That's 12Z, the new run is a lot further north.

Agree. Might even go a bit further South. Probably be more Snow particularly in northern areas than what is being forecast barring much of it doesn't fall as Virga.

is this slowly becoming a 4-6 inch snow event for the city? NAM always does this not sure if it's right or wrong!

These 18z runs continued that trend...that wasn't the issue...the problem was around hour 36 they go berserk with the primary to our west and amp the system like crazy. A little better high and damming won't offset that. That's like throwing a couple poker chips on one side of the scale and then dropping a piano on the other.

Mod/Heavy precip=Snow light Precip=Ice

I think its wrong. Nam is usually too amped. We are also dealing with very cold temps.

Yep. 20-30” or a torch In all seriousness, we watch the trends. Whenever they develop.

Compare totals from 18z to 12z - this was a huge step back in accumulation. Went from 15 to 9 IMBY as an example for the drop. That’s now NAM, 3k, and RRFS with pronounced warm nose. Not a good sign

3k keeps cf pinned closer to the coast Sunday late night vs 12k more inland in SE MA.