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Yaaaa I’m not liking the look of this. I better go clean out my gutters

https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2073779464975098028?s=20

Intense storm yesterday for northern Anne Arundel. Rain total 1.25. Power surged twice and somehow made the air conditioner stop turning on. Great!

I started to say I agree, but I just couldn't get myself to do it. Lol j/k So, the latest Cfs2 for December! Lol

That’s a very honest answer, ha. I feel that. These events are always going to have surprises when convection is involved. My one pause is always the consistent bullseye for days… nothing is ever that consistent this time of year. There’s always the haves and have nots… one town gets 0.92” in three rounds of 0.30” rain. While another town does 3.28” not far away.

That’s an impressive amount of rain in summer especially for a non tropical system

When Ryan speaks....I listen. Uh oh!

July 5 1999: Flooding occurs over the Arrowhead. The largest 24-hour rainfall total is 8.84 inches in central St. Louis County. Note: Here in Two Harbors, flash flooding from 5+" of rain in a few short hrs overnight caused 7th Ave (Hwy 61) thru town to turn into a river as Skunk Creek overflowed it banks right where it crosses next to the railroad bridge. The 400 Blk of 6th Ave was submerged, as the creek passes thru there. Very low area there. Waters overwhelmed the large culvert under 4th St at the 6th Ave/4th St intersection. The school bus garage/old football field area was also overwhelmed with running water across the road. As the creek mouth is at Burlington Bay, the water went over the Burlington Bay Rd , and washed away the entire beach area. I was awakened around 3 am with lots of thunder, and my basement was starting to flood a little. So as I dealing with that. When I looked outside in the predawn light around 5 am, the waters coming down 7th Ave looked like a rapids. Large amounts of gravel/rocks/driftwood were strewn all over the road when the waters subsided. At the Knife River Bridges on the freeway, water was flowing right at the bottom of those, and down on the Scenic Hwy, water was flowing over the bridge there, trapping wood in its rails. Similar event happened again in the summer of 2012. For Sunday, July 5, 2026 1891 - Sixteen horses were killed by hail, and many more have to be put to death due to injuries from a hailstorm at Rapid City, SD. (The Weather Channel) 1900 - A spectacular three day fire began when a bolt of lightning struck a refinery in Bayonne NJ. (David Ludlum) 1916 - A hurricane produced 82 mph winds, an 11.6 foot tide, and a barometric pressure of 28.92 inches at Mobile, AL. (David Ludlum) 1937 - The temperature at Medicine Lake, MT, soared to 117 degrees to establish a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1937 - Midale and Yellow Grass in Saskatchewan hit 113 degrees to establish an all-time record high for Canada that same day. (The Weather Channel) 1970 - The morning low at Death Valley CA was 103 degrees, and the high that afternoon was 120 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Severe thunderstorms raked south central Kansas for the second morning in a row. Thunderstorm winds again gusted to 80 mph at Clearwater, and in the Wichita area reached 100 mph. Twenty-five persons were injured at a trailer park at El Dorado Lake. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes in Montana and three in North Dakota. Baseball size hail was reported at Shonkin, MT, and wind gusts to 85 mph were reported south of Fordville, ND. Twenty cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Fargo ND with a reading of 106 degrees. Muskegon, MI, equalled their July record with a high of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Moisture from what once was Tropical Storm Allison triggered thunderstorms over the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, which deluged Wilmington, DE, with a record 6.83 inches of rain in 24 hours, including 6.37 inches in just six hours. Up to ten inches of rain was reported at Claymont, northeast of Wilmington. July 1989 was thus the wettest month in seventy years for Wilmington, with a total of 12.63 inches of rain. Alamosa CO reported an all-time record high of 94 degrees, and Pierre, SD, hit 113 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 5 Sun National Bikini Day 5 Sun National Workaholics Day 5 Sun Pet Remembrance Day 5 Sun Mechanical Pencil Day 5 Sun National Apple Turnover Day 5 Sun National Graham Cracker Day 5 Sun National Hawaii Day 5 Sun National Outdoor Lights Day 5 Sun Work Without Your Hands Day

South even worse. Yikes.

Yup, the big totals are gonna fluctuate here and there…but a very good soaking looks likely for a good chunk of SNE.

82 / 70 more sun , outside chance to extend the heatwave in places that see the most clearing

I'll take a consolation "best rain guesser" prize

Regardless of what happens with November and January, the signal for this coming December based on the last 46 years (1980) of climo for El Niño/+QBO, very strongly favors that month being warmer than normal

Thoughts on today?

Congrats Brett on whining to a 3K NAM Jack.

The cansips has been hellbent on cold. Im sure its too cold, but it has not changed much. Cfs changes all the time but it too has gotten colder. Nothing is screaming winter long torch.

Pleasant day on tap with a Lake breeze again. Highs around 70.

If the Eastern US is going to be cold in a strong/super el nino, I feel like the record warmth will have to be centered around the PNW or southwestern Canada. (2009-10's record warmth was centered around southwestern Canada, which had an effect on the 2010 Winter Olympics.) The fact that there is a warm signal in southwest Canada is promising.

Some rain totals from the storms last night. DEOS stations at Atglen 0.72" / Chester Springs 0.48" / Devault 0.66" / Glenmoore 0.60" / Kennett Square 0.42"/ Longwood Gardens 0.18" / West Bradford 0.51" / Nottingham 0.54" / Warwick 0.42" / West Chester 0.19"/ West Grove 0.13" / KMQS Airport 0.46"/ KOQN Airport 0.10 Our run of 90+ days should end today for most folks across the area. In fact looking ahead at least I suspect we may not see another 90-degree reading for the next 10 days. This week will feature below normal temperatures through Wednesday with highs tomorrow through midweek in the mid to upper 70's. It will however be a wet week with rain chances later today through Tomorrow night and again Thursday into Friday. The driest day looks to be Wednesday.

Some rain totals from the storms last night. DEOS stations at Atglen 0.72" / Chester Springs 0.48" / Devault 0.66" / Glenmoore 0.60" / Kennett Square 0.42"/ Longwood Gardens 0.18" / West Bradford 0.51" / Nottingham 0.54" / Warwick 0.42" / West Chester 0.19"/ West Grove 0.13" / KMQS Airport 0.46"/ KOQN Airport 0.10 Our run of 90+ days should end today for most folks across the area. In fact looking ahead at least I suspect we may not see another 90-degree reading for the next 10 days. This week will feature below normal temperatures through Wednesday with highs tomorrow through midweek in the mid to upper 70's. It will however be a wet week with rain chances later today through Tomorrow night and again Thursday into Friday. The driest day looks to be Wednesday.

HRRR has hardly anything until very late tonight, but can't rule out an isolated downpour before then. Really hoping for some good rain tonight and tomorrow -- we've had bad luck with the heavy rain missing here the last couple days.

Ugh, that June 2012 derecho event was awful! It was over 100 degrees that day and still at or near 100 into the evening right before the blast hit. Knocked our power out for 2-3 days solid which was miserable because the following days were still in the upper 90s. During Sandy we didn't have a power outage (or perhaps very briefly, can't recall exactly?) even with the more consistent winds. There was better prep during Sandy for sure as I recall...but also, the derecho ironically cleared out a fair bit of older trees/growth so that by October there wasn't as much to fall or get uprooted. (ETA: Interesting tidbit about the derecho event. Didn't get a lot of rain from that where I was, it was primarily a literal blast of wind in a concentrated amount of time. And there was a TON of lightning.)

Really interesting storm movement yesterday too!

Final standings including the 0.90" of total rain tiebreaker (DCA 0.02", BWI 0.82", IAD 0.04", SBY 0.00", RIC 0.02").

As others have alluded to, the lower dew points yesterday probably led to so much downdraft cape that the damaging winds superseded the heavy rainfall threat. With higher dews today, the HRRR in particular suggests a greater heavy rain threat, although it delays initiation later than several other cams.