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A warming trend is present after hour 300. Is it destined for the reality of the previously modeled LR warmups? I think so. I don't doubt that we could see a warmup, but the MJO is parked on the left side or a bit. Any warmup should be short lived IMHO. As for the minor system affecting NE TN and SW VA tonight and tomorrow? Time of day probably keeps this from being much of a problem in TRI, but.....I am not unconvinced that eastern portions of TRI aren't going to see 1-3" of snow. Bristol, Elizabethton, Roan Mountain City, Unicoi, Erwin, and eastern JC. These are TRICKY little systems to figure out, and modeling supports snow in those areas - 18z 3K NAM, 18z HRRR, 12z RGEM, 12z GFS, 12z CMC. I think west of I-81 the dynamics get here after the best forcing exits. But we need to watch trends this evening. I have seen system like this score in amazing ways.

18z 3K Nam is a beatdown south of 64

Careful! @Terpeast said that and ended up with a kid! All said, that is one heck of a sharp cut-off both north and south. I don't see that robust of a snowfall, cut these in half and I think it is good. And if it does this, guess I'll join you on the shoe deal lol.

out to 60 dusting for you but the main batch about to move in.. wish it went out to hr84

3K Nam is a beat down up this way.. Nam Gfs Euro all going full slayer mode

3K will have nada

Lamar's decision making and accuracy hasn't been good at all lately.

Thank you Washington for the confidence-builder for McCarthy. I still doubt he’s the guy, but it is good to see.

He’s alive!

That is the most likely outcome

The worst part is that in our ever warming climate it is increasingly difficult to have a colder than an average month, especially during the winter. However, over the past few years every time we have a colder than average month it is mainly cold and dry, and we barely have any snow in this region. Our bad luck just won’t run out.

Looking forward to 3rd dusting

I did later check that and the 850mb lift is pretty crazy. Though I guess it could be onto something with the cold air press from the north? I don't quite have enough skill to understand it yet though. Either way the soundings for Cville as it snows has a pretty large and 90% RH DGZ layer with lift so I should see some nice flakes. Though lmao

days n days

snow here you get a bit on Mount Tolland

It’s on Frontogenesis. Everyone’s doing it!

Without looking lemme guess .. snow in Templeton

Winter starting early for much of the Midwest, Great Lakes area and a good portion of the northeast. Meanwhile our immediate area can't buy snow.

We need the rain?

Not sure what to expect here. Euro doesn't show much but has been trending better. GFS and the short range models have been looking great the last two days, but then the last NAM run did a complete 180. Could be anything from a dusting to 2 inches here.

we 18z NAM

Big flakes

What the hell is the 12k 18z NAM on because if I get even half this total I will follow @Terpeast and eat a shoe

That is amazing to know that! Thanks. Where can one buy a crystal ball like you have?