All Activity

Strange how DC is part of VA now. New Virgina County? And that I live in Montgomery County B, east of Moco A. AI slop base map aside, I like your forecast.

No it’s been there for 3 years now. I used to have it below the deck but on the brick walkway .. literally 12 feet away . I mean there hasn’t been even any fake rooftop or car frost any mornings . Everything is growing , so it’s just a microclimate doing micro climate things.

My front lawn is still growing a bit but the back has stopped. Which makes sense because during the summer my front lawn is usually burnt and brown, it gets much more sun. My backyard probably averages an extra couple hours below freezing this time of year. now i just mow to mulch some of the leaves.

Great data, thanks for sharing. What do you use to create the visuals?

10f above avg all week, no rain. Make it stop Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

The difference between the Cansips and current Cfs2 runs isn't that much really. Precip signatures are very close indicating coastal storms. With Cfs2 running 4x/day, it's far from "done" adjusting one way or the other. For those of us inland (as in you and me), we'll have our shots for sure.

31 this morning. The clock got me…so much for an extra hours sleep

A little bit sometimes…not like MVY does. Is this your first cold season with the Davis attached to the deck? Maybe you need it back in the field.

And coldest for daytime highs .. love to live it

They often radiate fake there in the sand . It is awesome. Just me , BOS and MSP

He might be the warmest location in all of SNE as a whole for overnight mins. Love to see it.

Global cooling is the next cycle. Enjoy the warming while it lasts.

I disagree with the nerds. I think there will be more cold outbreaks. Yes it will warm up in between but I think there be plenty of cold near.

Keep those lakes nice and toasty. Hopefully the stored heat in Lake Ontario gets unleashed on the Tug Hill starting in December. Warm lakes can lead to some epic conditions on the hill.

Even ACK was colder than you

Mins…sneaky 29° for ORH. Still a long way to go for BOS and Ditty

For sure. The YouTube pirates are at it in full force. Funny how they'll slide in late in a video how a vortex split could mean absolutely nothing to us... after sensationally leading with it as fact

Some pics from last week of the beautiful foilage.

Certainly has... a couple weeks ago

Yore

Now, I'm not disputing any of that. In fact I value your opinions on these types of things. This just feels like a good opportunity to add to that thought. It's an interesting topic, and some interesting questions. What is this exactly? It is different. It is of the bottom -> up variety. EURO is showing the same thing. With the temp anomaly pushing up from the bottom. Like you said, this is the opposite of the classical model for these. Which start up high and work it's way down. I've seen a theory floating around on why we might be more prone to that type of thing currently. I don't know how true this could be or not, but it seems like a good time to bring it up. The increased water vapor from the Hunga Tonga volcano several years ago. It's still been cycling through the stratosphere along with the QBO. While it very slowly attempts to dissipate. It is a little interesting that closer to 100mb is a bit drier than higher up. Could this be the reason for the bottom -> up activity? NASA has a great site that keeps track of that, here it is on the following image. So, if el nino ultimately is behind this strat event this year? Which I think that is probably likely. If so, is this the type of warming event a steroidal el nino would normally provide minus that eruption? I'm not so sure. Intuitively, it makes sense that something about this could be unfolding differently had that eruption not happened. What that could be, I have no idea. Maybe it wouldn't... It's an interesting question. What are the ramifications of this particular event? We don't have many samples, and maybe not any. Will be interesting to see what models do with it once it's underway.

This is abnormal. When nothing else compares, I’d say it’s abnormal.

The mean 500 flow isn’t really ridging on the models. However, there is split flow there so there could be some in the means…but also the high heights is a sign of anomalous warmth too.