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  2. mitchnick
    Aren't the + signs supposed to be - signs?
  3. bluewave
    I only posted the highest peak departures during each of those months. Numerous surrounding stations were also over +10. So you are correct that it would probably take hours noting every station to reach +10 or more since 2015-2016. It’s anyone’s guess at this point exactly where the highest monthly departures will occur during the winter months this coming season. 2015-2016 was unique that it combined with the MJO 6 getting the greatest absolute temperatures and departures all the way to the East Coast. But the CONUS record for warmest December set in 2015 was already exceeded twice since then with two years coming very close. December 2021 and 2023 actually had more extensive warmth and greater coverage of the high departures than 2015. Most of the time the highest departures during super El Niño events occur from the Upper Plains into the interior Northeast. Top 5 Contiguous Warmest U.S. Average Temperature December December 2023 39.76°F 131 December 2021 39.34°F 130 December 2015 38.64°F 129 December 2024 38.16°F 128 December 2025 37.83°F 127
  4. mitchnick
    How big is the bridge? Asking for a friend.
  5. dendrite
    So many 10mb maps on social media. You hate to see it.
  6. GaWx
    The chart below has 10 mb/60N anomalies back to 1949. According to it, Nov 2026 is going to per ERA obliterate the old record (all of the way back to at least 1949) earliest SSWe whether it gets down to 0 (major SSW) or stays just above. The earliest SSW on record is 1952’s ~Nov 15th SSW. So, 2026 is headed to possibly beat 1952 by ~11 days! ———————— Looking at the above chart for only El Niño Novs, the only other three that got to +5 or lower per ERA5 in Nov were 1968 (-5 on Nov 27th), 1976 (+4 on ~Nov 15th), and 2009 (+5 on ~Nov 15th). These three had the lowest DJF AO of any winters since at least 1949-50. Thus, these very strong winter -AOs were quite possibly connected to a large extent to the very weak Nov SPV period. Thus, a case could be made for a better than average chance for a strong -AO averaged out in 2026-7 despite the lack of seasonal model support: 1968-9: AO -2.3 1976-7: AO -2.6 2009-10: AO -3.4 @Typhoon Tip
  7. SnoSki14
    It should get a lot more active. NAO/AO will be dropping, PNA rising. Ensembles are getting a lot wetter.
  8. michsnowfreak
    Its interesting that all he can do is quote posts from before the last flakes even fell LAST season.....8-9 MONTHS before winter arrives. Your quoted posts of his are from right when winter was on the doorstep last year.
  9. snowman19
    I said it before and I’ll say it again. I think the PDO flips positive. Likely weak positive but positive none the less. On a side note, I also see a rapid recovery and restrengthening of the SPV after the dip next month. The background conditions are much too hostile to sustain a weak SPV As far as 2009-10 lol If anyone actually believes that, I have a bridge to sell them
  10. jconsor
    I don't think Dr. Judah Cohen is a kook. Some of his ideas are unconvential, sure. He always explains his reasoning in his blogs... he's not just pulling 2009-10 out of a hat. FYI His company's subseasonal model beat all other entrants in the ECMWF AI WeatherQuest competition in fall 2025 and winter 2025-26: https://news.mit.edu/2026/decoding-arctic-to-predict-winter-weather-0108 https://news.mit.edu/2026/researchers-improve-weather-forecasts-looking-two-six-weeks-out-1014 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-03077-0
  11. michsnowfreak
    bluewave probably spent hours trying to locate one station for each month that had a +10 anomaly. There is a big difference between an isolated station versus an entire region ala Dec 2015.
  12. michsnowfreak
    Always so many factors. There are a handful of late 19th-early 20th century winters that featured incredible warmth in parts of the north/east U.S. I have no idea what the weather patterns/indicies were in place, but they featured extraordinary warmth, a few of which has never been exceeded in this region since then- 1881-82, 1889-90, 1931-32 (these are the 3 warmest at Detroit and many other nearby locals). Other warm winters included 1875-76, 1877-78, 1879-80, 1905-06, 1918-19. If you add some mathematical formula of X per decade of warming if we had the same identical pattern today, youd get an astronomical number the likes which we have never seen. So I don't think thats always the answer. This El Nino may be a bit warmer over the CONUS as a whole than under identical conditions a decade or two ago, but that still means nothing for individual areas.
  13. FPizz
    I see now. But, he a kook we all make fun of and have for years? We all know that, so why even post about it? It is like 2 or 3 people that mentioned something, when 5000 others say warmth. I just don't get it I guess.
  14. jconsor
    Dr. Judah Cohen did mention that he feels 2009-10 may be the best analog in the past 30 or so years: https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html
  15. FPizz
    And you probably would follow the weenies that would post that
  16. jconsor
    Having a weak stratospheric PV in Nov is quite uncharacteristic of a strong El Nino: https://x.com/rjameswx/status/2115111708884869209
  17. ravensrule
    UMMMM, it all of a sudden became a high ankle sprain. It's complete BS, they're trying to cover for him because he has them by the balls. Right after it happened they said if it was a playoff game he could have went back in, all of a sudden 3 weeks later it's a high ankle sprain. I have a bridge to sell you.
  18. FPizz
    Who the hell do you follow to see those claims and why do you still follow them? I haven't seen any of the sort. I feel like you see it from one person then act like all of twitter is posting that.
  19. michsnowfreak
    100%. Completely ignoring how weather patterns work because the earth is warming is a complete disservice to meteorology, and most here know that, so the trolls continue to look foolish. The obsession is strictly over a seasonal (or annual) mean which totally ignores day to day, week to week weather. Why even bother with the hobby then? I just ran the #s out of curiosity, knowing the spell of mild winters we had in the 1930s-50s, and sure enough, Detroit has averaged MORE below zero days in the 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s than in the 1930s, 1940s, or 1950s. Wanna grasp at a straw that the site has changed over the years, then use nearby Ann Arbor. They have been at U of M site unchanged since 1880...and they too saw significantly more below zero days in the 2000s-2020s than the 1930s-1950s.
  20. SnowenOutThere
    Guess it makes sense that if you keep increasing poleward heat fluxes you'll start to mess with the polar vortex more. No clue how that plays onto the rest of winter but I'll ask my climatology professor about it tomorrow.
  21. soadforecasterx
    Based off this chart really looks like we have our best shot at seeing a positive PDO since the 15/16 season
  22. LakePaste25
    My peak of +3.2-3.7 RONI and +3.7-4.2 ONI prediction I made a couple of months ago is looking alright. Might have even gone a little too low.
  23. Today
  24. Upstate Tiger
    Yep and the 70's that are showing up across much of the lower 48 this week get more and more compressed next week and completely disappear except for Florida and parts of the SW by the second week of November.
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  26. bluewave
    It’s as if these two super El Niño are linked together through some shared underlying mechanism since the Nino 1+2 365 day mean SSTs never dropped below neutral following 2023-2024. The trades also didn’t fully returned to normal north of the equator in the ENSO regions over the same period. Much different than all the previous super El Niño events of the past.
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