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Been a pretty boring month. Hopefully next one is better.

I forecast @cyclone77 and MLI to get more snow than they received last winter.

I would take the entire historic season again!

Not pro, but some ridiculous crazy things were going on around college basketball in the 1970s - 1980s especially Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

This is why I only care about snow.

Yea, I personally don't see it as a big deal, but it certainly doesn't hurt the case for an official La Niña designation.

High of 72 after low of 45. Dew points in the upper 30's have made for a very dry day.

Chris, Thanks. I still don’t see why the reduction of sulfates would cause such a sudden warming in the Pacific over a short period in early 2023. That still seems odd and thus it’s pretty fascinating!

@CT Rain GenCast is an AI-powered weather forecasting model developed by Google DeepMind that uses a diffusion model to generate probabilistic 15-day global forecasts

Not even out of October and Wiggum has us buckling up...

Lamar practiced yesterday and today, but was limited. Really need to see him be a full participant tomorrow to be confident he will play Sunday. Bears lead the league in forcing turnovers. Cooper Rush will fumble twice and throw 4 picks lol.

GENC it's all the new AI crap I think

INS (INeedSnow) Ensemble.

I remember seeing something like this on the Ens a couple of weeks ago too.

I wouldn’t at all be surprised if IOD were to go positive as early as January based on past seasonal patterns and the recent positive favored IOD era we’re now in. If El Niño is going to occur next year, I’d think that would probably also help it rise.

What model is this?

12z Google DeepMind And 12z Google GenCast The *current* consensus is to slide it towards Western Jamaica before it turns north

Yea, the healthy -IOD bolsters the case for not jumping ship due to the subsurface...I didn't get into the IOD and GLAAM here because it was just a brief updated synopsis, but I definitely will in the seasonal analysis.

While unlikely we watch!

Yeah, nothing to it.

The best guess so far is the big reduction in sulphur dioxide emissions over the last decade from China and shipping lead to less clouds over the Pacific which was masking the CO2 emissions warming. https://e360.yale.edu/digest/asia-air-pollution-sulfates-warming

Hey Brian, I checked the coordinates as Gilbert passed over Jamaica: It went from 17.6N, 75.3W to 18.3N, 78.5W over a 12 hour period. Per a lat/long mileage calculator, that’s 216 statute miles, which means a brisk 18 mph. That’s a whopping 6 times faster than the very slow average of 3 mph that Melissa is forecasted to move while adjacent to Jamaica! So, Gilbert held onto its strength while moving right over it at 18 mph. How would Melissa do moving a mere 3 mph but just south of the island? I don’t see how it wouldn’t weaken some, possibly significantly, at some point during that 48 hour period if it is initially at MH strength, even if not immediately due to drier inflow from Jamaica.

Hey Chris, If the sudden early 2023 spike was due to sharp mid-latitude Pacific warming, then what caused that sharp early 2023 Pacific warming?

Went from sunny to overcast real quick here. Currently 58 degrees.