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For the time being, and relative to date, the NH T mean has risen warmest comparing other curves in dataset for this product, https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=nh

Multiple rumbles. Looks like we’re going to get 7-10’d.

Hot and dry. That’s how long range looks

Still seems kinda strange why you dont see the AAM and SOI synced up.Im not saying this wont be a strong NINO,even CPC today shows some pockets today of +8 down into the subsurface.The next WWB seems to be caused by a ERW into the eastern PAC,whicH we havent seen these strong WWB so far

Dew is 60 here

Its par for the course hear near RDU. Everything like to miss this small area for some reason. I'm glad we got the rain, although .52 for the event but areas about 15 mins NW got over an inch. Sitting a paltry .55 MTD

You are correct that better moisture today would have contributed to a likely good event. That said, the deep dry boundary layer has a lot of downdraft cape, and there is definitely at least some potential for wind.

Muggy? DP low to mid 50s

I completely, totally disagree. This Nino is already extremely well coupled and looks nothing at all like a La Niña

Good call in a sense... MRGL risk added for parts of the area

We seem to headed towards a WQBO into summer,while the AAM and even SOI is still not coupled quite well,they both look NINA and not NINO ATM

The drought angle has become a racket IMHO. It allows $$ to flow b/c there is an "emergency" resulting in graft/corruption. Having problems, real or invented, are profitable, and that one reason why we have so much hype and nonsense. The word "drought" in itself has become a pejorative more than it should. It's like the word "climate." Hear that word and ppl freak or think "bad." It's not like the word "drought" which has some bad by definition. "Climate" is a neutral word in this sense, but the media and politicians have turned into into fear-mongering Look at this nonsense in Washington state. This blog entry lays out all the facts about how it is definitely *not* drought emergency status. Yet the the powers that be declare one, and their reason is b/c snowpack is only 50% of normal Yet all other factors that go into drought states indicate no issues at all. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-is-no-drought-emergency-in.html And the U.S. Drought Monitor, which factors in everything (there are 4 types of drought), not even half the state is actually in a drought, and it is only moderate status. It like so much these days, throttled to the max. Use the most superlative wording by default. No scaling or perspective. It's not an "alert," it is an "emergency" by default. There is no severe, heavy, or disastrous/disasters event/damage, it's all "catastrophic."

Here’s the RONI plumes that Ben tweeted that @snowman19just posted: https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/2053479903761498266/photo/1 -4 of these 10 would be a new record RONI (goes back to 1950): CMCC, BoM, JMA, NCEP (CFSv2 keeps rising and is now +2.7 for seasonal peak as Prof. Eliot just tweeted). -Euro is close to a 1982-3 redux -OTOH, the UKMET, which has performed as one of the better models over the years, doesn’t even reach +2.0 for RONI monthly and peaks at only +2.3 for ONI monthly. So, the UKMET still isn’t even close to the record +2.7 monthly/+2.5 seasonal record RONI peaks of 1982-3 even though it appears to be a couple of tenths warmer than its prior run. -So, whereas the majority of the better models suggest at least a 1982-3 redux is a good possibility, the UKMET is still ~0.7 cooler than 1982-3 on a RONI basis even with this slightly warmer run. That along with certain May model runs (like Euro longterm and BoM more recently) still being subject to notable warm bias are enough to still keep me wary of the admittedly rising possibility that 2026-7 will at least get close to 1982-3. The chance of a 1982-3 redux or even warmer is rising but is still very far from a slam dunk. OTOH, getting a RONI super-strong peak is now ~60% chance in my mind. I’d have it higher than 60% if the UKMET weren’t still not reaching super even for a single month.

Sun finally breaking out. 63 and muggy

The best was 2011-12. Get the big snowstorm end of Oct, and then next to nothing and a torch for the winter! Scott was beside himself! 1979-80 was like this as well.

You do realize that since April 30, New England has had measurable pcpn every day. Not a lot, but it's not bone dry. More stuff today. Perhaps a NZW TRW?

We have decent mid level lapse rates (6.5), strong heating (8.5 low level lapse rates already), and strong increase of wind speed with height. Just don’t have any moisture! In the past I didn’t realize how much it mattered but after taking my courses this year at college the other half of cape is moisture availability. If only we had some higher humidity to generate cape today could’ve been a good severe weather squall line. Either way, if we get some added forcing we still could see a decent squall somewhere (maybe even relatively low precipitation so structure is more apparent?)

Orchard oriole…pretty cool

Yep... I put the drought monitor talk in the same bin I use for all the New England elevated fire danger statements!

It’s weird we can’t seem to buy even one nor easter or soaking rain event. Just constant weak NS waves. Honestly, it sorta feels like a winter pattern that just kept on lasting. Don’t know how we break out of it

Carbon copy over this way. Should reach low to mid 40's today. Upper 50's- 60 by late week. The older I get the shorter the summer season seems.

Last 20 years have been way above the long term average too. So it’s not like being a little BN with the newer norms is a big deal.