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Crazy how quick things change in weather. Went from looking like a great period to cold and dry, mild week with some rain chances mixed. Thankfully we still have half of the month even after the warmup

Great find.

Bone dry hope we can ger dustings Wed morning and sat morning

We have snow flurries as well.

Well technically it doesn't only affect the northeast coast of the U.S. it has an effect everywhere but the effects (or the results) or just the by product. For us a byproduct is just shitty luck, for areas to our west and south the byproduct is increased potential.

Yeah I'll check this out more, Phys.org is pretty great. And thanks for the last paragraph, that is precisely what I was trying to illustrate but could not put into coherent wording. I think having a sound fundamental background in this understanding can go along way in medium range forecasting. If there is one thing I would really love to study further and understand it's wave spacing and factors which influence wave spacing...and then how forecast models handle wave spacing.

IMO, the Wbell anomalies are too cold. If one moves up one category (e.g., -5 to -7 becomes -3 to -5), one will probably be closer to the final values. Having said that, the Northeast will very likely finish below normal. With the expected readings through February 14th, one would need a top 5-10 warm finish just to bring the anomalies to normal. So far, none of the guidance (even the CFSv2) is showing sustained warmth of that magnitude.

Although all of Wake was a screw zone this time for the most park lol.

After my 35th straight day of 45° and drizzle in May

Well whatever that all means…which is certainly above my pay grade. I guess it only affects the northeast coast of the U.S. then.

It’s the southern Wake screw zone to be specific. It’s been that way a long time. I literally made sure that I lived far enough north to keep my sanity! No regrets!!

The Alton Bay ice runway is open, per Facebook, with ice depths over a foot.

GFS has the Wake county screw zone so it must be correct

BOS did -10° 3 years ago this Wednesday. I think that was the first time they did double digits below 0F since 1957. But as for those yore top tier historical cold shots…those may be gone. The ones that bring sub zero temps to SNE in the afternoon or -10° up here…1855, 1857, 1917, 1933, 1934, 1943, etc. That next tier below like 2023 is still potent though.

Imagine ours would be available from Wakefield. Not an intentional slight, just based on weather office coverage.

Right now feels like all major ensembles are locked onto the idea 10-13is pretty mild...especially W of the NE/SNE, then 14-17 looks colder. Then it comes down to what happens with the indices. If the PNA/EPO/WPO go strong -/+/+ the month is probably cooked and it gets very mild just about everywhere in the CONUS 18-28, but does not mean March is done. If those indices can at least settle near neutral values we may be in business since I think the AO/NAO are favorable. Someone else too maybe in the SNE thread mentioned don't forget shortening wavelengths allow crappier 500 setups to produce storms. I always point out how 2/8/13 and 4/6/82 had very similar 500mb patterns nationwide. One event pretty much escaped east, the other almost cut over us and was rain. Its a bit easier to get snow here in lousy setups in March than January, but obviously that factor can be negated by temp issues.

With a fading nina I feel like this would be a better chance than we've had in awhile...but still, snow in March and all it's messyness, lol

The sunshine the last couple days has been mesmerizing.

The quickening flow is well past documentation and researched/papered ... I've supplied links over the years. One can go to Phys.org or where ever access point they use and bother looking for themselves at this point. Plus, why do we think all those air-land speed flight records have been set in recent decades re west-->east? It's not a question of whether the flow is fast or not.. Fiddling with Navier-Stokes, agreed - but the basic wave form of the Navier Stokes equations ( which are processed in the physical make up in the model), has the U component variable - which is the static velocity of fluid medium within which the wave propagation takes place. Increasing the value is going to do something to the wave spacing.

Since I moved back to the area, we've gotten zilch in March... so the WDI is off the charts.

Few flakes falling here now.

I’m sitting pretty in the snowfall contest…need just one more moderate event, so I’m all in. With that said, I’m totally ok with the snowcrete portion of last storm melting first. You literally have to stomp to walk on it, which sort of takes the hiking part out of the game.

A balmy 25F. Large sheets of 4-6" glacier sliding off the roof and crushing everything in their path.

Could definitely be an under report Brockton CO-OP. I could definitely remove it if you think it seems low, and based on the surrounding reports, it does.

JI ain't going anywhere.