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24.6° -SN

I'd put higher probability on it. Or the time afterward, Jan 20-30 period. It's not much of a risk that the N. Pacific ridge currently extending into Alaska and the Arctic circle on models will trend into -PNA, donsoutherland has done research that 45-day -PNA periods in the winter, like the one we just had flip to +PNA 80% of the time afterwards. Also, there is a kelvin wave starting to move warm water across the ENSO-subsurface, and I have found that correlates to more +pna conditions as it happens. Greater probability is that the N. pacific ridge ends up north with a low even undercutting it, vs the opposite, imo.

H to the 3rd is really bad on temps . Any kind of ll cold or CAD it fails terribly

But it got the no snow idea right yesterday all of SNE. Everything else had 1-2

With all this ravens and Harbaugh talk, I'm only got one thing to say... ONLY 40 DAYS TILL SPRING TRAINING!!!!

Sad that it's come down to making appointments for secs 2 weeks in advance.

We may have no choice, but to accept a snowstorm during that timeframe.

HRRR has been abysmal period for the most part…glad it’s being replaced.

I hadn't seen your follow up post when you mentioned those states outside the northeast. Tis odd to call the scale what they did then.

Sad east coast society?

Man the HRRR was so bad today. Nam ftw.

Pretty much all models show the MJO ready to take a nice trip towards the left side. GFS has highest amplitude.

The 18z AI EPS. Some big dogs in there. Two separate storms. Windows are 14-15th and the 20th.

18z GFS shows a couple of opportunities between the 15th & 19th. The first chance is light this run, but could have been more if the pieces phased better. The second chance misses south this run, but again the potential is there.

So we are all set then Jan 20-21 secs

18z AI EPS also likes the 20th period.

Had some sleet earlier. Best part of it being icy tonight is I don’t have to travel to Branford tomorrow so that means I can watch the first period of this stupid 10:00 game tonight.

I still think 93/94 was better. That epic ice storm that set the floor for a snowpack that never died. I fell more times that winter than any other. Of course sandwiched between was that awful El Nino winter

Stay safe!

Definitely strange weather here. We’re supposed to have again tonight mist and fog developing. We had it last night and it was cloudy till about noon. The fog is already developing.

33/30 with sprinkles, had some frozen move through earlier, plenty of salt on the roads IMBY

But will you pong later?

I believe its still the only winter to have above normal snowfall each month from nov to april

We ping

I remember that well and how devastating it was. What others forget however was how quickly the snowpack was rebuilt again and how the ground remained snow covered in some of the forum, I can only speak for myself and those of us in the north, through most of February and March. That was a true Thanksgiving to early April winter.