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Thanks. Must have ratios cause gives me 9” on .6 qpf in

Euro is following the AI on the trend south and slower longer storm.

No. I have said I80 south is in line for the heavy snows. I’m sticking to that. Basically NYC/LI south. definitely stay very interested in southern coast, out to south coast MA

Cannot recall seeing these high probabilities in advance (especially for NC) and over such a large area----in several years.

Why is anyone talking about accumulation right now when we know that doesn’t get settled until real time. as of now it looks like another chance for some snow this weekend; and if all goes right, a significant storm. enjoy the tracking.

Anxiously following and pulling hard for you guys! Can't believe I might miss something special. Reel it in. 48 here in Cocoa Beach. That's not too bad until you factor in a north wind at 17 gusting to near 30. Coldest I've experienced here since 2006.

Yea, I'm not enthused......I don't see how big snow gets into my area. Easy for folks who live in CT to bun me, but I just don't see it. Man, I just can not win....when it snows in NNE, I'm part of SNE....but when it snows down south, I'm NNE....just a boning in every fu(king direction....just not sure what it will take, at this point.

Thanks to @NorthArlington101 for the link https://www.weather.gov/lwx/wintermaps Days 3-7 Threat

Not everyday we see a high in the low 20s with snow likely. Sunday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

He's been unhinged for years

You might wanna look for yourself

You are in a spot worth watching for something more than advisory. But odds go way down just north of you imo. Watch the mid level height field compress out of New Brunswick over time; with more of a -NAO tapestry in the east.

Anyone know where to find this graphic on LWX’s page? It used to be under winter weather, but it’s not there anymore

Well the pope still doesn't see it happening at all. He is all in on it staying south and being a DC event. From what I'm seeing, even from the professionals, there's a very good shot of it coming up, at least in a sudden New England

Great news. Wake me if they start showing Maine.

You have the qpf map?

I was there. I lived in Alexandria at the time. There were 4’ “drifts” by sloped roofs where it had bounced off and accumulated below. That was a glacier until March. Also- that storm was progged to be ZR and it ended up 99% sleet. Very very fond memories of that event up there, gave me a deep appreciation for a heavy sleet storm

You might wanna show us the 6z gefs and 6z NBM .

If we totally decoupled, it would have been colder but winds stayed ~3-7 mph most of the night. Low was 0.7. Almost made it below zero for the first time this season.

I would assume so.

I don’t believe the NBM has a Kuchie.

Good thing about the 6Z GFS coming into line is that this lessens the risk from the southern stream/cutoff. It was consistently the slowest and most guidance has trended slower and stronger with it over time. Gives some confidence in it not getting stuck or coming out too piecemeal. We have other potential issues, like interaction with the trailing NS wave, but the big failure modes are getting crossed off first.

Assume that’s 10:1 too?

More ridging but stronger surface high and positive tilt. I think the trend on overnight guidance was to load up this already-explosive setup by tightening the delta between the arctic and the tropics.