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Bears game will be cold but temps in low teens and wind chill around 0? That’s probably an every few years occurrence (if not more frequent) in the NFL between there, Lambeau Field, Arrowhead, etc. .

We had some pretty flakes in west Cary.

Happy for you N/W folks! Also, happy that we have a variety of outdoor camera brands that now provide this kind of on-the-spot coverage...

Today a coalition of DC Snow Enjoyers announced a plan to curtail the down sloping effect by LEVELING THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. In order to preserve cold air damming (when needed), the mountains will be replaced with a retractable CAD wall. We are not asking for public funding for this project. All we ask is for exclusive rights to develop a mixed-use, walkable community atop the Great Appalachian CAD Wall.

Natural gas is down still another 3% on the day, which brings the total drop since the peak of 8 days ago to a very steep 25% on an anticipated much warmer E US pattern (though maybe not to a torch in the means as I stated in my prior post) starting mid to late next week and continuing for the foreseeable future! At least that’s some good news for future heating bills. @Stormchaserchuck1

Back to cold now for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day on the GFS

Cool to see several reports around or even over an inch of snow from yesterday's snow showers in Morris, Warren, and Sussex counties. That made two days in a row of accumulating snow for the higher elevations. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=PHI This was pretty well modeled.

and those gradient patterns are better for upstate NY and central/northern NE. 93-94 is an exception when the gradient was south of NYC

We’re not used to snow before Christmas. I think I golfed this week last year

Almost zero chance we avoid some way above average days starting at the end of next week. Whether its sustained or not is a different animal.

Like Baltimore being in a good spot rather consistently on these runs so far...only 40 hours to go, lol

Bah Humbug! This fits better in severe than general December, where we have one more clipper / frontogenesis north of I-40. Warm themes could lead to severe. Please don't share commercial, but it's not a huge surprise. Everyone can see the weekly models. Straight North American pattern recognition.. forget all the teleconnections TCs.. Pineapple Express ends mild downstream. Current Pac NW firehose is why our Sunday cold front will be history by Tuesday afternoon. But the TCs are going to the dogs too. North Pac ridge going to the Aleutians not eastern Alaska. -PNA +EPO torch regardless of the WPO. Guess Jax and I are going to end up chasing the OV Midwest.

It makes sense to have the pendulum swing after a persistent cold first half of Dec but unfortunately the next pattern will prob be persistent for several weeks at least and it's one that pretty much closes the door on snow chances. The closest analog is second half of Dec of 2021. Jan 2022 did produce a storm but it was a weird one. My Rockville yard loved it but it was another of a long string of small maximas and forum dividers. Not saying I expect a repeat or anything just that the trip out of the current progs has produced in the recent past. We'll see how things unfold over the next couple weeks but I'm not a big fan of a persistent GOA low with no blocking. I really don't want to see that become the winter personality. My gut says blocking will return but that's just a guess. I'm not expecting a quick flip back to deep winter based on current progs. Would likely be more of a frustrating grind through the first half of Jan. If the GOA low becomes a mainstay, posting quality and fun factor here will decline precipitously lol.

I’d buy that

12z GFS says what Christmas torch?

Wow, central PA getting the screw job there.

Waste of bandwidth.

UKMET looks okay for 2-3 inches more to the south Jersey

Some weird restriction AmericanWX has, You'll need to compress it or embed it. Maybe someone else can share on how to embed via link because I have never really figured how to embed.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1141 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 OHZ039>041-048>050-057-058-PAZ013-014-020>022-077-078-WVZ001-002- 130215- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0024.251213T1800Z-251214T1800Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Lawrence-Butler-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong- Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke- Including the cities of East Liverpool, Steubenville, Aliquippa, Salem, Cambridge, New Philadelphia, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Follansbee, Ambridge, Indiana, Ford City, Ellwood City, Zanesville, Beaver Falls, Cadiz, Carrollton, Armagh, Columbiana, Butler, Dover, Malvern, Weirton, Monaca, Wellsburg, New Castle, Kittanning, and Coshocton 1141 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio, southwest and western Pennsylvania, and northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow bands may prompt some counties to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Please report snow or ice accumulations by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using X @NWSPittsburgh. && $$

The NYC metro area is going to warm up. We are not New England

Went back and looked at the reanalysis maps of the Dec Christmas Eve tornado in 1988 in TN to see if that was possible with what the models seemed to hinting at a couple days ago,i used the day before,guess four words should be noted"GOOD LUCK WITH THAT" This pattern we are in is just like we seen last year when we was off to a fast start but collapsed when the blocking into the Western Aleutians/Being Sea set in after the tornado outbreak in March this year All this does is pull the JS further northward makes the severe shift up into the OV,in which is what we seen CIPS yesterday morning had some good analogs for tornadoes around Christmas from the LMV into the Mid South,but the models yesterday afternoon crapped that out building the subtropical ridge further northward Still over 10 days out,this could always change again.We more than often get severe before cold in the cold season.I.E the severe outbreak last winter where Vortex is at in MS. in late Dec

Yeah, the Euro got taken to the woodshed on that one. Kept trying to show southeast CT/RI/MA blizzards.

The Euro Weeklies suggest the most intense and persistent torching will actually be concentrated well to the W and SW of the E coast. So, whereas a big warmup vs the current very cold pattern is coming on all models, that big warmup in the E US appears to take it to only moderately warmer than normal instead of downright torchy when averaged out.