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Ha my wife is watching a youtube vid on Kate right now.

The SE Ridge is the main culprit here

I'll take zwyts favorite model the RAP to go please

Outside playing with my 3 yr old and can it ripping just to my north.

Is DadAteMyShoe available?

95-96 would be great as the warmups were short lived. Below average Temps Dec, Jan and February. Blocking was very prominent then.

Come on--just 50 miles south...

Just a flurry here, squalls must have got wrung out on the trip east.

Well...we got our first WWA. So there's that. I guess. Seriously, I will be genuinely happy to see snow falling tomorrow. Not expecting much. Congrats @Terpeast Hopefully the skies will open and puke snow on you and the new family. Also, sign that kid up for the weather board now so I know who to bully when he starts posting.

Yeah, if it goes to high amp 6 most definitely. If you want a cold late December and much of January better hope that doesn't happen as high 6 Pattern will be hard to dislodge if blocking is gone, the PNA negative and the AO Positive particularly if it traverses into the colder phases at low Amp afterward.

At this point I don’t think the question is “will December be cold?”. Very likely to average cold. I think the bigger, million dollar question will be snow. As of right now, the pattern does not look conducive at all for east coast, I-95 corridor snowstorms. I agree with your take in the post you made earlier in that regard. If December ends up colder than normal with below average snow, I think most on here would consider that a loss

Been mostly clear here in Bergen County. Wind is picking up. Snow drying up as it approaches.

Wakefield's latest.

Amateur! I'm hiking Washington in shorts, a t-shirt and crocs. What could go wrong? An aside: in Jan 2015 I ran up Mount Madison in a t-shirt, xc ski tights (basically yoga pants) and trail runners (with microspikes), a puffy jacket in reserve and some water. Of course, I had looked at the sky and read the forecast (this was the storm a couple days before "Bomogenesis, baby" which had a sharp cutoff in CNE; from the summit the view south was dark clouds behind Washington, the view north was blue skies over Quebec, about 25°, basically calm winds). I was also meeting up with AMC staff who had a radio and keys to the hut should anything have gone awry. The Valley Way is so much nicer when it's a packed out snowy inclined plane instead of a jumble of boulders. Three weeks later Kate Mastrodova was all geared up for a day no one should have been on the summits: 5 and windy in the valley should be a good enough sign; -35 and blowing 120 on the summit is not really survivable.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I've always felt 95-96 was somewhat unique in that whenever it got cold it actually seemed to snow. Jan and Feb that winter were below normal, but only like -2 or -3 here in middle TN. Yet every cold shot seemed to bring snow. On the other hand I've heard the dreaded 13/14 winter brought up by BAM weather in the last couple of days. That winter featured at least 7 different significantly cold shots with barely an inch of snow total in Nashville. January was -7 for the month with only .4 of snow, February was -4 with only .1 of snow. Meanwhile just north of us they were setting yearly snowfall records. That's probably why BAM(based in Indy) would like to see a repeat of that. I think east TN scored a couple of times that winter so some of you may not react as negatively when its mentioned.

WWA expanded north and west and east into D.C. up to Btown

Its in the 40s today

Too many cars on the road. Snow won’t stick.

Ha I didn’t even realize you posted before they did pull the trigger

I hear your point about the dangers of oversimplying ENSO-PNA relationships, Don, and wholeheartedly agree. However, from my perspective there is increasing evidence the PNA will average neutral overall (with some periods of slightly positive PNA, especially Dec 7-9 and Dec 14-20) the second and third weeks of Dec. True, the EPS pattern days 3-7 and 11-15 is not fully in line with a canonical +PNA (the positive anomalies are shifted south and west vs. the typical position over western Canada and the NW US, the negative anomalies are concentrated over SE Canada and the NE US vs. the mid-Atlantic and SE US, and the upstream negative anomalies are in the e. Gulf of Alaska vs. the typical position further SW in the north-central Pacific). However, both the EPS and GEPS have been trending toward a more neutral PNA in most of the next two weeks (e.g. Dec 7-10 and Dec 14 and beyond). The charts you showed were from the GEFS, which has the most -PNA (and SE US ridge) biased of all the models recently. Also, looking at the EPS individual members it is evident that a few members with a highly negative PNA are skewing the mean downward Dec 14 onward. A slightly majority of members (about 55-60%) actually show a +PNA during that timeframe! The GEPS is not as aggressive, but still has about 40-50% of members showing a +PNA in the same timeframe. Regarding the last third of Dec, there is too much uncertainty to comment much on that period. While I favor the SE US ridge returning to a degree, I am skeptical of the strength of the NW/N-central US trough and SE US/W Atlantic ridge shown in the past two EPS long-range runs.

need some posts here with people worrying about temps the day before the "storm"

Got to admit it’s getting better . Getting better all the time-won’t get no worse.

Great path except it dies as it gets here.

Noise at this point