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Yeah, seasonal models showing -200dm monthly +PNA in the N. Pacific doesn't seem likely. They are heavily ENSO-bias, need to be reprogrammed

As 40/70 Benchmark would say, the kiss of death for the Winter

Another core penetration by Josh. new update from him on FB "8:15 pm Hearing distinct howling in the distance. Things starting to bang. Hurricane POLO in Las Barrancas." That 8:15pm is his local time

Final total event of 7.93".

@weatherwiz posts are solid and make excellent points. Good debate/discussion material! "just because the lead story was on the storm does not mean it was hyped," Wx is almost always the lead story. Even when nothing is going on, the newscast will throw to the wx right away and talk about how sunny it was today, and never not let an excuse happen for them to say "WE'RE TRACKING!" even if it is clouds or a slight change in temp! This is fluff and obvious to the viewer. That time could be used to report on much more important news out there (not like there isn't enough out there). "Cancelling events ultimately is the decision of the person or people responsible for that decision." Correct, but there is cause and effect here. When you hype things to the max, turning the ordinary into the extraordinary, that has real psychological impacts and skews perception big time. Even if you know better and are well-versed in the basics as to wx, say as an EM, this still will sway your objectivity subconsciously, and result in decisions that are not always the best. Also, even if you know better and do not let this influence you, external pressures socially/politically/economically amped up by the hype are a factor and make you do things you otherwise would not do. Do not underestimate the bandwagon logical fallacy. That is, if "everyone" says this or that is true or is going to happen, then it *must* be true or going to happen! This is known social science and human psychology. Also, as mets and wx enthusiasts, we can't let our wx knowledge bias us here. Yes, WE know the deal and how to interpret/read between the lines when a wx event is fcst, scaling and quantifying things correctly, but the vast majority out there have no idea, and given the info overload these days and not knowing what is what from it, you can't really blame the public for being skeptical/distrustful, which leads me to this: "Also, there is a greater trust in weather forecasts these days which factors in as well. " I don't know about that. In some sectors/fields, yes, but from a public POV? I'll never forget what I heard in a grocery line some years ago. A storm was coming, and one person talking to another said, "last time they said it was not going to hit, and it did, so maybe this time it won't b/c they say it will!" What kind of logic is that!? But you see the notions and perceptions out there!

Josh is about to be hit hard by very compact Polo as he was only 21 miles from the center 1/2 hour ago with only light rain and just some breezes:

When you say "local TV stations" I assume you just mean those that you get in your viewing areas in CT.? Not every TV market is the same, some are more out of control w/ hype than other and intense (you should see the OKC market!). Not all markets have the same caliber OCMs as to overall met knowledge or the OCM able to do things in a reasonable/balanced way for wx presentation as the news director is breathing down their necks micromanaging and saying hype to the max. Since wx is the #1 reason why ppl watch local news, I don't have to say how intense and competitive it is these days at many TV stations.

Considering I’m 42 and hes 38, I applaud this…except calling him old

Two whole tropical storms in the Atlantic!

Records: High: EWR: 87 (2014) NYC: 88 (1881) LGA: 84 (2014) JFK: 82 (1948) Lows: EWR: 38 (1947) NYC: 41 (1947) LGA: 42 (1947) JFK: 44 (1989) Historical: 1836 - The first of three early season snows brought four inches of snow to Hamilton, NY, and two inches to Ashby MA. (David Ludlum) 1837: The first recorded storm to rake the entire Texas coast was Racer’s Storm, named for a British sloop of war which encountered the system in the extreme northwestern Caribbean on September 28th. It is remembered as one of the most destructive storms of the nineteenth century due to its extreme duration and 2000 mile path of destruction. 1874 - A strong category 1 hurricane went by Charleston and Georgetown, South Carolina. The tide was unprecedented height, inundating the entire riverfront of the city of Charleston. 1893 - Albuquerque, NM, was soaked with 2.25 inches of rain, enough to establish a 24 hour record for that city. (The Weather Channel) 1917 - A hurricane hit Pensacola, FL. Winds gusted to 95 mph, and the barometric pressure dipped to 28.50 inches. Winds at Mobile AL gusted to 75 mph. (The Weather Channel) 1929 - A hurricane-spawned tornado hit Fort Lauderdale, Florida. While the path length of this estimated F2 tornado was 0.8 miles, it caused 16 injuries. 1947: Boston, Massachusetts recorded its highest September pressure of 30.66 inches of mercury. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1974: Belleville Ill.--Lightning killed a man who was playing football in a park. Orlando, Fla.--A 20-year-old Naval Training Center student was killed while jogging. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1984: Coolest September day ever recorded in Washington, DC. The maximum was 51 °F and the minimum was 47°F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records) Richmond, Virginia had a high temperature for the day of 52 °F making it the coolest September day on record (records since 1897). (Ref. Richmond Weather Records) 1986: Flash flooding swept a car off the Kamehameha Highway on Oahu, Hawaii, and into a swollen stream. The driver held onto some branches until help arrived, but the current did strip him of his clothes and watch! (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced up to ten inches of rain in southern Kansas and north central Oklahoma overnight. The Chikaskia River rose 2.5 feet above flood stage at Blackwell OK during the day causing flooding in Kay and Grant counties of north central Oklahoma. Early morning thunderstorms in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas produced 3.07 inches of rain in six hours at McAllen. Thunderstorms produced up to six inches of rain in southeastern Texas later in the day. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front in the central U.S. produced severe weather from northern Texas to the Lower Missouri Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours. Hail three inches in diameter was reported at Nolan TX, and wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at Lawrence KS. Thunderstorms drenched downtown Kansas City MO with up to four inches of rain, leaving some cars stranded in water six feet deep. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms over northeastern Florida drenched Jacksonville with 4.28 inches of rain between midnight and 6 AM EDT. Unseasonably cool weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S. Five cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Binghamton NY with a reading of 30 degrees. Morning lows were in the 20s in northern New England. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S., with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and 80s. In Oregon, Astoria reported a record high of 83 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1998: On the morning of September 28th, Hurricane George made landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi with maximum winds of 110 mph and a minimum pressure of 964 mb, making it a Category 2 hurricane. After landfall, Georges moved very slowly across southern Mississippi and weakened to a tropical depression by the morning of the 29th when the center was about 30 miles north-northeast of Mobile, Alabama. The storm dissipated near the northeast Florida/southeast Georgia coast by the morning of October 1, 1998.

Nice for the old guys to get a win every once in a while lol

Made it to 67 today, despite lingering clouds hope to get to the low 70s tomorrow and then Wed - Fri 80s.

Happy to see Keenum play like he’s playing, what a night he’s having.

That's major problem these days. No accountability. Whether it be legacy media or social media, it always about what's *going to* happen w/ endless speculation, conjecture, and hedging that is over-the-top. Fcst does not work out as planned or not at all?, memory hole it and just move on to the next event or distract w/ other content. It is business model that is more self-serving than doing a service.

Good lord. Its finally leaving us. I hated this event. On the ground, there was nothing interesting. Just 4 days of rain. Another ruined weekend. And what's the best I can say about it? Looked nifty on satellite? Was well forecast? Even these rain totals aren't that remarkable for this long a duration event.

Eagles aren't what they have been the last several years. Almost lost to both the commanders and Titans and now are getting run out of Soldier field tonight.

Playing devils advocate, wouldn’t the current environment of hyping up weather events lead to increased “hits” in forecasting high-end wx events? It is incredibly hard for an event to “sneak up” on society these days.

Overall, things worked out exactly as forecast. What was atypical is that banded nature of the precip. A classic coastal just steady moves NE and intensifies, and the precip area comes in as a wall w/ a solid WAA blitz, and *then* the precip becomes more banded and showery as the upper trough and comma head moves in. But given this was an outlier event in terms of setup/pattern, none of what happened should have been a surprise. In the end, it delivered big many areas.

Can you image if this was snow w/ those kind of narrow precip maxes/mins? You never would hear the end of it! Meanwhile, @CoastalWx would have likely *actually* said, "this is TOO MUCH in Weymouth! I can't get out of my house!!!""

Despite being such a "warm" storm, it still managed to get that classic SE quad cool/cold air instability CU over the ocean we see so often in the weenie classics! When I first swt a VIS image of the Bliz of 78 as a kid, that cold air CU always stuck in my mind! One of more crazy cold air CU wraps was the Bliz of 97. @CoastalWx PT!

.71" rainfall on the day in Methuen, 1.06" Sunday, .58" Saturday, .03" Friday for a 4-day event total of 2.38"

"communicated quite well," yah, to the point that ppl were ticked that so many *indoor* events were cancelled and ppl treated it like a snowstorm raid the grocery store! From a fcst model perspective, they nailed it, as you said. It indeed did end up being the biggest Sep nor'easter on record for the region, not only for rain/wind, but also for duration as well. Sometimes I find this overlooked, which is should not be. Our ability to fcst high-end, outlier wx events has become excellent in the last 10-15 years and that has translated to a lot of $$ and lives saved. Contrary to popular belief, the wx is not becoming less forecastable or "unrecognizable" w/ warmer mean temps. I have to state this at times in discussions -- the laws of physics and thermodynamics do not change b/c temps on avg change (up or down). Water still freezes at 0 C, latent heat of fusion/vaporization/sublimation remains the same, the sun angle at any given latitude is still the same every year on any given date, etc.

It was memorable but nothing we haven’t seen