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I like seeing High pressure set up in southern Quebec to feed in the cold.

Man let’s get these busts in winter.

Gfs had nothing yesterday. AI ftw

Mann Canada is cold on the guidance. Let the highs build down and the CJ‘s began after the first week of December.

Actually, that was a nice coastal. We take that.

That's a major +NAO. The cold anomalies are from -EPO that happens days before. By the end of the run, it's neutralizing and more of a -PNA is trying to build. There is a few day lag between the evolving Pacific pattern and US Temps. It's pointing to an above average 2nd week of Dec. At 384hr you can already see the SE ridge trying to build.

that is why i will move to new england when i get the chance

.40" in the gauge this am, most in a 24 hour period this month and brings monthly total to 1.03". Quite warm for a late November morning, 56.5/55.6 with rain continuing to fall.

Yes and it’s congrats Ray north .

I didn’t see any change. Stop looking at twitter. Euro had a nice SWFE

Where the eff did this come from?

6z GEFS No western trough but a Great Lakes trough . You are overthinking this. Everything still looks fine going forward.

Rarely has anyone captured the pure excitement of our recent run of weather, so well and descript in written word.

I wanted to illustrate that CPC isn’t panicking. This map at that timeframe is along the lines of what many of us are thinking. It’s very close to my baseline scenario.

Ice Ice baby. Just like Decembers of lore Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Crummy day.

My cousin and her fiancé were there last winter and he proposed to her under the northern lights! They said it was a truly amazing and unique place.

37F and rain, as November feel as you can get. .10” so far

The 0z Euro & GFS now show a chance out on December 4th. Hopefully that’s the beginning of the Winter tracking fun & games.

Not a great look into the first 5-10 days of Dec overnight

Yep already saw that. Insane how they live. They are the true winter weenies

If we roll through phase 7, 8 and 1 later in December, we should have a pattern with chances to score Winter weather.

Overnight, it looks like the GFS started to get rid of the feedback over the SW. The 6z run pretty much eliminates it after the 6th. There will be a cutoff out there, but the GFS(and its ensemble) kick out everything after it. Is this because the model has a progressive bias? Maybe. But it would also be the first to fix whatever is going on(if indeed there is a feedback error which seems to be growing more likely).