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There is an enough variability in the long range not to worry about Christmas atm. As far as Sun/Mon system goes, as a few of us have said…Stay the course.

Yeah, I'm with you. Pretty steady on a 1 to 2 inch event. You can tell an inter-forum sentiment is brewing tho. Gotta keep the Ft Sumter moment from happening tho. But I wouldn't be surprised with this slipping north tho.

How quickly you forget Grinch 2020. 18-36 across CNE/NNE on the 15th to 17th, followed by a cold week. Then 2" RA at 55+ wiped it all out (and with the winds and dews even some manmade trails were scoured off). These are all snow depths; actual accumulation before settling was often higher. Woodstock Vt: 18"-->0" RUT: 18" --> 0" Peru, Vt: 31" --> 4" CON: 21" --> 2" GYX: 11" --> 0" Poland, Maine: 18" --> 0" PWM: 13" --> 0" Bradford, NH: 19" --> 3" Sandwich, NH: 16" --> 0" EEN: 18" --> 0" Newport, NH: 25" --> 2"

The lack of a southern jet is a semi-permanent feature that’s developed through the summer. Models looked like that was flipping coming into the month but nothing has changed. Until we get something coming from the southern stream the ripping northern and pac jet is going to kill us regardless of what cold is available. The ongoing drought is all you need to know about our southern stream energy through the fall. That’s going to be the biggest fail mechanism this winter I’m sure of it

All I know is that while we've got a few inches on the ground now, we are in need of a refresher. It's certainly not looking fresh as this point!

2” as opposed to 0”

It's a 1-2" event. What exactly is the best stuff lol

Be dramatic. This place is boring.

We just went over this a week or so back, I saw pics with folks that had decent pack, It was ugly.

so much for that prediction lol

GRR has had its 5th coldest start to December. Too bad a meltdown looks like it is coming.

I also had to plow my driveway and that always brings a smile to my face.

I have conflicting thoughts honestly. On one hand, the cold seems poised to stay on this side of the globe. Canada is frigid and looks to stay that way through at least the next month. We need a mechanism to keep driving it south. The Pacific is the main culprit here. Its roaring and record flooding is occurring in the NW. It can take a long time for the Pacific jet to behave the way we want it to after setting up like this. A lot of Mets who I respect still think January could be OK for us. There's a lot of uncertainty maybe more than normal due to the conflicting factors I have detailed. Another worry I have is the lack of a southern jet showing up in tne long range. A lot of the models and ensembles are going very dry for the rest of this month. My biggest worry is this pattern sets in longer than we want and the next thing you know its early February. Most of us haven't had an impactful winter storm in February or March in over a decade. I'm not sure it can come a major snowstorm late in the season anymore at our latitude.

Southern VT got 40". I trailered south for a ride as it was all melting. From this to this in a matter of a couple of days.

Was 6" when I left last Wednesday 12/3, and from what i'm hearing, we are aoa 9-10" otg. I'm 3 miles east of potter/tioga border and abt 15 miles S of NY border. Technically way west central Tioga.

This GFS run is a riot major coastal and a foot for interior, then 590 hgts 5 days later off the EC. That's a spring antic man. Typical on an extended range March chart

That shows exactly why I need to be sure to hold onto Pit2 as long as possible. The new Pit1 will suck in the winter!

Better enjoy the cold & snow now. Looks like our chances for a white Christmas are dwindling.

I don’t think a lot appreciated last winter enough bc we were missing the “big storm” but we avoided can kicking and essentially had threats to track almost the entire winter period and had a warning level snow in February. Long ways to go

Humor...That's all we've got left...

Need it to double-down. Not to be dramatic but if it shifts north more than noise I think we are cooked. Besides the ICON the entirety of 12z has gone that way (some good some bad). Gonna end up a SEPA-NYC special.

No evidence to back this up

It's literally not even winter yet. Calm down. It snowed almost a foot in Florida and the friggin Bayous last winter.

I decided to give the trails at West Woods not too far from NEOH and DTA a visit yesterday afternoon. The amount of snow on the ground in that area was shocking compared to what I had in northern Summit (was down to about an inch of dense snowpack yesterday afternoon), and the gradient is really noticeable between Macedonia and even Twinsburg and Solon. Also, hiking around here is not fun right now lol, need some more snow to cover up the old/packed down ice and mud. Had a 2.1" measurement (which doubles as a storm total) around 8 AM this morning, another quick burst a little after 10 AM dropped a fluffy half inch or so. We'll see if I can get any more bonus snow from lake squalls through this evening down here. Looks like some lake enhanced snow Saturday into Saturday evening with a W or WNW flow as the clipper goes by, which could favor the northern half of the snowbelt. Winds go more NW into Sunday as the coldest air moves overhead which should favor the inland snowbelt yet again. The moisture is definitely best with the first phase of the event Saturday afternoon and evening. The instability increases into Sunday as brutally cold air aloft moves in (850mb temps of -20C or so), but I have some concerns about a shorter fetch by then, drier air at times, and lower snow ratios due to it becoming colder than ideal. I don't doubt that LES will continue through Sunday and into Sunday night across inland portions of the snowbelt, but you may need to get under an upstream connection to get better accumulations in that window.