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good question

The WPC qpf output is a lot more robust for seacoast NH than model guidance consensus. The storms developing near Rochester NY hold together and swing through this afternoon.

Looks steined up this way. Good luck to west/south

Am I crazy or do the models have very little?

FMH/MVY gonna steal my rain again

Good technical discussion from the AM OKX AFD: .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level trough digs down into the Great Lakes Saturday and swings across eastern Canada and the northeast US Saturday night. Ahead of this feature, shortwave energy will pass across the area this afternoon as a warm front lifts north of the area into the afternoon. A pre-frontal trough will follow late in the afternoon with the main cold front moving across the area this evening with the potential of another line of showers/storms. Severe thunderstorms and potential flash flooding are the main concerns this afternoon and evening. It is important to note the exact location of the severe and flooding hazards may not become clear until a few hours before the onset due to the aforementioned uncertainties. PWATs are progged to reach between 2 and 2.25 inches, which is well above the observed 90th percentile per OKX RAOB climo. Freezing levels look to range from 13-15 kft with deep warm cloud layers, supporting efficient warm rain processes. These ingredients support the potential for heavy downpours in any convection this afternoon and evening. There is still some uncertainty with the amount destabilization today, especially with lingering smoke this morning and potentially apart of the afternoon (see key message 2 for more details on the smoke). The passage of the shortwave should allow the smoke to move away from the area in the afternoon. The greatest instability may set up just to our southwest, especially as the shortwave moves across the area. There should still be at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, but surface based CAPE could be limited this afternoon, unless greater destabilization occurs further north. The mid level flow is also fast enough to keep the convection moving across the area, which may limit the flooding potential. The latest HREF has a small area of 30 percent chance of greater than 3 inches in 3 hours just south of of our NE NJ and NYC metro zones. This is close to our flood watch and most susceptible areas for flash flooding, so no changes were made to the flood watch. Peak hourly rainfall rates of 1.5-2"/hour are possible. Isolated instances of flash flooding in some urban areas across the I-95 in S CT and potentially western LI are possible, but not enough confidence for an expansion of the watch at this time. WPC has maintained the slight risk for excessive rainfall. SPC has expanded the enhanced risk into much of the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and NYC metro with a slight risk remaining elsewhere. As noted above, there is uncertainty with the amount of destabilization due to smoke and potential of a round of convection as early as late morning and early-mid afternoon. The 00z HREF is indicated a mean SBCAPE of around 1000 J/kg across NE NJ into the NYC metro, but an ensemble maximum of upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg this afternoon for these areas. Elsewhere, the mean is around 500 J/kg with an ensemble max of 1500-2000 J/kg. The max surface CAPE values are possible if the smoke clears sooner and if the first round of convection is weak or moves out quicker. Bulk shear around 40 kt continues to be progged and there is low level directional shear/curvature in the wind profiles. The main threat from any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts. There is also a risk of a tornado, especially if the warm front lingers nearby, which would enhance low level helicity and shear. If we are able to get clearing and the first wave does not leave behind subsidence, then the potential line of storms with the cold front/pre-frontal trough could also contain a few severe thunderstorms. The cold front moves through the area around midnight, bringing an end to the threat of showers and thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Smoke is beginning to filter back into the area from the south early this morning as high pressure has moved offshore. HRRR, RAP, and RRFS smoke fields all show areas of smoke lingering across the area this morning and potentially into a portion of the afternoon. The smoke should begin to clear out and move to the east as a shortwave and showers/storms move across the area. There will be reduced air quality and visibilities into at least the early afternoon. NYDEP, NJDEP, and CTDEEP all have air quality alerts in effect until midnight.

Sun seems more like actual sun and not a weird apocalyptic sun, this morning. Had to make a call about going to Hershey today, smoke looks to start clearing up there midday and storms not until way later, so we’re going.

Such a silly back and forth

Everything severe wise seems wagons south . Like South of 84. Hopefully this is not another miss with light showers

Hello again! Nice to hear from you!! I'm happy to give your comment the respect that it deserves. I'm not joking. First two sentences: I'm not concerned about events. Their not supremely important. I'm talking about the millions who work and or play outside. Back in the seventies, the best way to be fired from your job was to call your supervisor and say, I'm not going to work today or the rest of the week because the air is too dirty. Those who had been trapped in an office all day looked forward to being outside in the fresh air for an evening softball game. Some of those who worked and played in all that dirty air have lived to be over 100 years old. Last sentence: Now we know better. Do we really? I'm good friends with a person who will receive major surgery next week. Visiting and receiving phone pre-surgery guidance from about 6 people from the hospital during the past week was a roller coaster of contradictory advice. About 4 people directly gave about 25 do's and dont's. The other 2 directly contradicted some of the guidance from the first 4. Who was correct??? Watch out for those high winds later today. The SPC really enhances the threat around D.C. compared to Augusta County. Otherwise, enjoy your day.

Part of the reason we are getting the more typical 2020s summer +AMO/-PDO Niña-like pattern in North America is due to the Nino forcing being focused in the Southern Hemisphere. The forcing is usually the strongest in the Northern Hemisphere in July. This could be related to the record July El Niño strength coinciding with the Southern Hemisphere winter.

Ugh.. I thought the rain knocked down the smoke. I'm headed out for a 8 mile morning hike and it smells like electrical fire lol. Oh well. I can't sit in the house all day.

Only got down to 80 overnight here. I’d have to go back and look but that may be the all time max low temp IMBY.

I can smell it this morning again. Not as strong as yesterday

SPC has increased the risk of strong tornadoes for all of NJ and EPA.

Nothing but smoke and parched ground here. I'm not expecting any rain this evening either

Rrfs and nam are this evening now

Thundered for “what seemed” like an hour straight here around 4am. I did not expect that.

Still purple with AQI of 213 here

Eversource has a pretty crazy battery program available in CT and MA. They essentially pay you like 6x retail electricity rates when you discharge your battery to the grid during high demand. This is because New England still relies on tons of peak oil fired power plants. When those run electricity from them can be like 30x normal wholesale rates. These plants are crazy expensive because they idle 95% of the year and run off essentially diesel fuel. These oil plants are also used a lot in the winter when there are natural gas pipeline constraints in New England. ISO New England had an article a few years ago how New England burned something crazy like over $500 million in oil in 1 week during a prolonged cold snap. Here is some numbers from a powerwall in CT last year I saw online. The Eversource program is run through Tesla for payments. I think the math is these payments will pay for the battery in 5 years and they have a 10 year warranty. In 2025 there were 41 events during which my powerwall and solar setup sent energy back to the grid. • I received a check from Tesla for $1889.42 in February for these events. • On average, I sent 25.11kWh/event to the grid during each of these events. • I sent 1029kWh in total to the grid during these events. • For an average price of $1.84/kWh and average of $46.08/event. A kwh is currently around .30 in New England. Eversource bought the power from the battery at around 6x or $1.84 kwh during high demand. https://www.eversource.com/residential/save-money-energy/clean-energy-options/energy-storage-solutions

AQ still kinda ass tho even if the air looks cleaner

The storms were 4 hours early as a beefcake MCS is plowing through. Its been a long time since I've had a 'awn storm. You couldn't see the darkness coming til it was right on top nearly. Curious if the smoke caused that. Fr. lightning with constant thunder, going to be shy of an inch after its not moving fast and I see some backbuilding.

Eyeballing either side of 0.10” of rain in the gauge from a thundershower between 4 and 5 AM. Just enough to wet down things at the surface, air quality this morning for Columbia is starting off at about 186.

The Miramichi fire was mostly in NB but also involved some Maine acres. Since the Baxter Fire in 1977, Maine's biggest wildfires have been about 1,000 acres. Lorimer's work on forest history in Maine points to stand-replacement events occurring about 800 years apart for any one area. The state has very little fire-type forest and a cool moist climate with relatively even distribution by month.

Rare hatched tornado risk too.