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I wouldn't call it perfection but it's better than it was

Cane

Tomorrow will see temperatures top out in the upper 70s. Cooler air will return for the weekend. A rainy period could develop late Sunday and continue into early next week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool. The chance that the region could see its coolest air mass this fall arrive toward midweek next week has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -31.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.934 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.0° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Soakah.. and look at MTD after a very wet Augdewst . Drought gone there!

It is kinda uncanny in the MA around Christmas. It can be cold AF the week before and it still find a way to be warm during at least part of the holiday week. Especially xmas eve or day... lol. Christmas 2009 was the least memorable and kinda sad white Christmas I've had. Watching a 24" snowstorm just 7 days prior get literally nuked with fog and rain was a little depressing. And we rarely get a white chistmas. Like I cant even remember the last legit region wide one. But I can sure remember a lot of unseasonably warm ones haha. The WDI index has been screaming for a white Christmas for years but for some reason.... we never even get close. Often not even a frosty morning that you can squint and pretend.

Autumn firmly in place

My house and property are swarmed with spotted lanternflies now.

I got 0.09" today. Morning line fell apart, and this one was just a miss to the left (west).

rains for days at the end of next week on the 18z Euro AI

Brutal run if true

Just got 1.28 rain from this batch headed towards Harrisburg area. Complete with several bouts of thunder. It poured. 1.40 for the day.

CAUTION FOLKLORE—-> I know that you’re supposed to wait until after the first frost, but the persimmons have spoons and the one woolly worm I saw was black Don’t judge I gotta do what I gotta do when it’s the end of September and we’re still 20+ degrees above average every single freaking day

I think the warm Xmas puns a play off the warm December that is expected....I don't think anyone it honestly trying to forecast down to the day at 3 months out.

I don't think you are paying enough attention to antecedent conditions...of course the summer of 2015 was more redolent of El Niño....it came off of....an El Niño with a huge +PDO. You are also misunderstanding what I am saying when I compare to 2015...not just talking about the intensity of the GOA low, but also the degree of MC influence. There is probably a connection, but it's not 1:1. I doubt we see more MC influence than 2015.

Missing the good stuff. 0.01". Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

DC might be better at sports than we are at December snow.

Yea but 82/76 which is what I’m at now is really gross.

Indeed, the weighted avg of your graph, which looks like it is only ~+1.25 to 1.5, doesn’t at all jibe with the image below, which shows it ~+3.3:

Yeah IDK just thinking out loud one way I could see it go without too much thought. Actually, the -PDO October might be the best fit for that north Pacific and NA look advertised if we reverse this color scheme accordingly. I'm curious what happens that month as we're really getting into autumn at that point. Not much confidence one way or another.

Gfs has rain all week next week for the NYC area

I honestly don’t think I’ve ever seen one around these parts.

Misery Mist, useless.

18z gfs folds. Wet times ahead

The talks of getting to 90F quickly faded today. .