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41.5 up from a low of 37.9

Hubby swap at the homestead?

Ah yes...the good, 'ole "front-anal action always works out well....

Looks like some accumulating anal frontal snows Thursday Pm

"Rain, changing to snow before ending" 1980s weather forecast fraud

jelly^ glad you're ok and amazing how real this one got for a few of our regulars

Big anafront event incoming

No. They were mangled, wet and bags were torn open, but had frozen solid. It wasn't worth it to me to try to save them. Nick scooped them and put them in the compost pile.

Probably nothing accumulating. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see some flakes flying, or a white rain shower on the back end.

I feel you. Probably only the second time in my life I felt anxious during a storm (first was Nov 2013 in the LAF). Things happened so quickly here. Watching the radar and thought the core of the cell would miss me to the northwest. Then it developed and right turned. Told my gf to grab the dogs and shelter. Called my dad to tell him to get into the basement. Of course I go out in the back to see it unfolding. Could see (and hear) the rotation/tornado to my south, which I'm guessing was when it first dropped here. My viewpoint wasn't great being in the city, but I had enough to see things get going. Took some video, but it doesn't really show as much. But the hail..just incredible. I posted the photo of a 4" stone here, but there may have been bigger. But when softballs are falling from the sky, you can't be choosy.

did you keep them ? 42/39, stayed above freezing all night

Looks like it. DIT going 1 to 3?

41/38 here this a.m. After what I'd call a solid B grade winter, I sure am ready for spring. We spent yesterday afternoon cleaning up shit in the front yard from months of collected litter (FUCKING SLOBS, and... nip bottles should be banned!) Back yard still has a few inches of pack in many areas but disappearing quickly. We also found asphalt damage in the driveway where Mr. Shitfaced Asshole flipped his truck into our yard. Glad the adjuster has been delayed... It's been added to the list, it was hidden under Ice and frozen bags of wood pellets that spilled from his truck.

east coast winter never forget

6z euro is pretty darn good for dc Balt.

Yeah, we are clear here despite northeast winds. Hopefully it lasts. Flakes tomorrow night?

verifying

The record high of 80° at Central Park was the earliest 80° day on record. First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 03-10 (2026) 80 - - - 1990 03-13 (1990) 85 10-14 (1990) 80 214 1945 03-20 (1945) 83 10-19 (1945) 80 212 1921 03-21 (1921) 84 09-30 (1921) 87 192 2021 03-26 (2021) 82 09-18 (2021) 84 175 1998 03-27 (1998) 83 09-27 (1998) 89 183 1989 03-28 (1989) 82 09-23 (1989) 81 178 1977 03-29 (1977) 81 09-19 (1977) 81 173 1985 03-29 (1985) 82 10-15 (1985) 80 199 2025 03-29 (2025) 81 10-07 (2025) 80 191 1917 04-01 (1917) 83 09-20 (1917) 84 171 1978 04-01 (1978) 82 09-21 (1978) 83

another quality soak, soils nice and wet heading into leaf out

Well the backdoor came through a couple of hours ago but skies are SCT/BKN. We’re still wedged and hanging around 40° too while other areas mixed out to near 50° before falling again. Looks like it may end up being warm SoP.

It’s gone already on the 6z GFS. But given those antecedent conditions/boundary layer temps on the Equinox, you would need the off shore coastal low to absolutely bomb out quickly, with very strong UVVs (lift) and strong dynamic cooling to the surface to get any snow out of that

DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Today`s forecast remains a very challenging one in regards to the potential for severe thunderstorms. At this point, there`s a wide range of potential solutions on the table, with very low confidence in which solution will ultimately verify. However, ahead of any thunderstorm threat, very warm temperatures again this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Record high temperatures may again be in jeopardy (see Climate section below for more information). This is ahead of a powerful cold front, which will bring a substantial change to the weather thereafter. Now, shifting gears to the more pressing topic, which is today`s severe weather threat. First, current conditions differ a bit from the previous forecast, with no morning convection to deal with at this time anywhere in our forecast area. Looking upstream though, a piece of shortwave energy branching off of the southern stream energy over the southern Plains sparked a few showers overnight across the MS River Valley, but those never really got going. However, there is some cloud debris from this activity that is heading in our general direction, currently over the OH Valley. The more potent convection has generally followed the evolution portrayed form the 00z NAM, keeping us clear from convection this morning, unlike some of the global guidance. Latest runs of the HRRR are also capturing this pretty well, so at least for now, that may be a good point to start from. Now, looking into the future, there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the evolution today, but the lack of substantial convection this morning does lend me to believe that we don`t get completely capped today, so will lean generally in that direction with this morning`s forecast. The primary feature at play today is a potent northern stream trough, which will continue to amplify as it tracks eastward from the Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes today. A corresponding surface low will deepen as it tracks northeastward from Lower Michigan across the Lower Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley. The low-level mass response to the deepening cyclone will lead to strengthening low-mid level winds, as a 700 mb jet of 50-70 knots develops over the Ohio Valley this morning before spreading over our area by peak heating this afternoon. Southerly flow at low-levels will draw deeper moisture (low 60s dewpoints) northward into the area, which when combined with daytime heating (surface temps climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s) will lead to surface-based destabilization (MLCAPE values around 500-1500 J/kg). Assuming that storms occur, the environment in place with MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and effective bulk shear values of around 50 knots (with nearly all of it below 700 mb) will be very favorable for the development of severe storms. Per the most recent guidance, and using the guidance with the best current initialization, this is the current thinking for convective evolution today. First, the showers over the OH Valley are beginning to increase in coverage, but are generally moving towards PA and should largely stay north of our are this morning. Some clouds are likely to move into our area as a result. The biggest question is, will they clear out enough to realize the aforementioned CAPE value this afternoon? Looking at forecast soundings, even in those that don`t really initiate convection, leads me to believe we will, and that the storms moving out of central WV into our region by early-mid afternoon do have a decent chance to maintain or redevelop on our side of the Allegheny Front. Assuming this does happen, the available shear/instability support both multicell structures, as well as discrete supercell structures. All hazards will be possible, including tornadoes with any storms this afternoon. The environment in place will make damaging winds possible with any storms that form. However, that threat would likely be maximized in scenarios that produce a more linear convective mode, with a QLCS or smaller bowing segments. A more cellular mode would likely lead to supercells, a greater threat for both severe hail and tornadoes, and lesser areal coverage of damaging winds compared to a linear mode. Storms spread east through the afternoon and towards the I-95 corridor by this evening. The eastward extent is also in question, and will likely depend on what from convection takes. The Storm Prediction Center maintained the SLGT risk for severe today, but did expand their 5% tornado probability outline for most of the area, and maintained the CIG1 hatching area (suggesting a reasonable maximum tornado intensity of EF-2, if a tornado were to occur). That hatched area with 5% probs is an indication of the level of uncertainty still in the forecast, but also the high-end nature if things do tailor towards the worst-case scenario. They also have a 5 percent hail contour, and a 30% wind contour (which is driving the SLGT risk category). There is no CIG 1 hatching for wind, but hurricane force gusts (74+ mph) are needed to justify wind hatching. It wouldn`t be a shock to see some 60-70 mph gusts in any bowing segments. The main line of showers that will accompany the actual cold front itself will largely fizzle into showers with a shift in synoptic winds in its wake. This is because it comes through overnight, with no instability left to work with. A brief summary of the main takeaways follows below: -Forecast uncertainty is very high tomorrow. Plausible scenarios range from no severe thunderstorms at all, to a very impactful severe thunderstorm event. -Any storms that do form this afternoon will likely turn severe, posing at least a threat for damaging winds, and potentially large hail and tornadoes too (if the storm mode is supercellular). -The timing of the most intense storms is expected to be in the afternoon and evening hours, with the strongest storms (if they occur at all) expected to move through the I-95 corridor between roughly 3 and 8 PM. -A squall line will likely approach from the Ohio Valley and track toward the Alleghenies tomorrow evening, but will likely be weakening as it does so. Any severe threat with this line will likely stay confined to along/west of the Allegheny Front.