All Activity

beautiful day despite lake cooling

The squirrels are chewing these little branches with tiny Oak leaves all over . Making a mess . Just the worst animal alive in terms of lawn destruction

One angle I don’t see discussed much is how “feels like” temperatures are changing relative to actual air temperature. We usually focus on raw temperature trends, but that’s not necessarily what people experience. In winter, wind chill matters; in summer, humidity does. So I pulled PIT data back to 1960 and looked at mean “feels like” temperatures (wind chill in winter, heat index in summer) alongside the air temperature trends. A couple of interesting contrasts: January: Mean “feels like” temperature is increasing at ~10–11°F per century, versus about ~6–7°F per century for air temperature. So winters aren’t just warming — they’re becoming less harsh even faster than the thermometer suggests. July: The heat index trend is also higher than the air temperature trend (by roughly ~1°F/century on average). But that actually understates the real effect. Nighttime heat indices are typically equal to the air temperature (they’re not additive until you get into ~80°F+ conditions), so averaging over the full day mutes the signal. That implies that daytime heat indices are likely increasing on the order of ~2–3°F/century in addition to the air temperature trend.

Seems like everyone here has been to Switzerland lol. Super easy - almost everyone speaks some English. Echo the travel pass recommendations. Interlaken and Grindelwald are like my favorite places ever so have fun in that area!

I don't care but let's hope it last. Weekend still looks great so all systems go as far as I'm concerned... 58F/Sun breaking out little by little

Here are the trends since 1960 by month, sorted May to April. Month Trend (°F/decade) Trend (°F/century) May +0.60 +6.0 Jun +0.47 +4.7 Jul +0.56 +5.6 Aug +0.45 +4.5 Sep +0.54 +5.4 Oct +0.42 +4.2 Nov +0.22 +2.2 Dec +0.92 +9.2 Jan +0.68 +6.8 Feb +0.94 +9.4 Mar +0.60 +6.0 Apr +0.74 +7.4

Exactly. Everything needs to be 200-400 Miles further East. That would be a Drought denter.

Trying real hard to not kick heat on. Go pellet stove go

At least those mid-60's are coming for us tomorrow, but yeah, today is in the shitter.

Less than 2 inches of rain in 16 days in late April/Early May is closer to average than being wet.

+6C subsurface anomalies showing up now

I was looking at some data for Pittsburgh and, with GPT’s help, calculated the annual and monthly trends for periods starting in 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 (all using May–April data). For the first four start dates, warming is pretty insensitive to the choice of starting point — it comes out to roughly ~6°F per century in each case. However, starting in 2000, the trend is nearly double that rate (see table of trends below). Start Year Period Trend (°F/decade) Trend (°F/century) 1960 1960–2026 +0.59 +5.9 1970 1970–2026 +0.60 +6.0 1980 1980–2026 +0.62 +6.2 1990 1990–2026 +0.58 +5.8 2000 2000–2026 +1.14 +11.4 The obvious caveat is the shorter time window. I intentionally didn’t go any shorter than 2000 because it quickly becomes too noisy to draw meaningful conclusions. With that in mind, I wanted to get a sense of what the climate might look like 50 years from now. The table/graphic shows a range: Low end: continuation of the long-term trend (1960–present) High end: continuation of the more accelerated warming seen since 2000 This shouldn’t be interpreted as a true “high-end forecast.” If anything, one could argue warming may continue to accelerate as CO₂ increases and feedbacks come into play. This is simply a trend-based extrapolation, not a model projection. A couple interesting takeaways: Winter shows the largest absolute changes Summer warms less in °F, but still shifts meaningfully given its low variability November consistently stands out as a relative laggard Curious what others think, especially regarding the seasonal differences and whether similar patterns show up in nearby regions. A couple quick notes on the table: “Recent” refers to the most recent 7 years (May 2019 through April 2026), so it should be thought of as a snapshot of the current climate rather than a formal 30-year normal. The 2070s range is not a forecast — it’s simply an extrapolation of observed trends: Low end = continuation of the long-term (~1960–present) trend High end = continuation of the more accelerated warming seen since ~2000 Importantly, this should not be interpreted as a true upper bound. If anything, actual warming could end up higher than shown here if the recent acceleration continues or increases due to rising CO₂ and amplifying feedbacks. This is just a simple trend-based framework to give a sense of scale.

relief for the downstate screw zone incoming?

A rare (the first this season?) warm spring day here with very calm winds. usually we pay a price with these 60s/70s, but thankfully not today

That’s not inconsistent at all—those are two completely different contexts. When I post here, I’m discussing weather in the U.S. on a U.S.-focused forum. That’s the scope of the discussion, and everyone does the same thing. But when you’re evaluating a scientific paper making broader claims about climate behavior, scope absolutely matters. If a study is U.S.-only, that’s an important limitation that needs to be acknowledged before drawing bigger conclusions. On the Canada point, focusing on a cold spell there would actually be the cherry-pick. Short-term regional cold anomalies happen all the time, even in a warming world. The broader context right now is near-record global warmth, so isolating one region’s cold period doesn’t really tell you much about the overall climate signal. So the distinction is pretty simple: Talking about regional weather → it’s perfectly fine to focus on the U.S. Evaluating climate claims in a paper → you have to be clear about geographic limits and not overextend them Those aren’t contradictory standards—they’re just applying the right frame to the right situation.

Many records set with the Tuesday morning cold Latest 24F or lower in Allentown, previous record 28F. Latest 29F in Harrisburg. Latest 17F in Bradford since 1981. Altoona 24F old record 26F. Scranton 24F old 26F All that just days after temps near 90

Well we are paying the price for last week. This is crappy weather for anytime of year but not abnormal for April. Hopefully the trend improves for may. .

You’re saying how this being U.S. only limits how broadly you can interpret it. But at the same time, many of your recent posts ITT have been U.S. only! You wouldn’t even consider the intense cold in Canada in March. You’re not being consistent.

May 2005 repeat being thrown around in the northeast forum. Nope don't want that not in anyway. Weeklies look brutal.

The south colder than the north…sucks ass here today..horrid!

Ensembles people. Also the rainfall potential this weekend was always paltry (few models more than .25), the wetter period starts later next week and has mostly held the course

Let’s hope we don’t get into a slow to erode blocking situation.

I notice sometimes northeast TN (Tri cities especially east of MRX) can get going in the early afternoon on what's otherwise a Carolina day. That's mainly later in the season. Carvers may be talking about other examples. All I know is that it frustrates me to no end. I'm not going to chase east initiation, because it creates a long drive home. Euro came in a little hotter Monday. Nothing major but definitely supports a severe weather D6 outlook. Winds from 850 to 500 turn pretty well nearly 60 degrees vs say 45 deg. LLJ is still shown weakening / lifting north. That latter detail and/or any midday rain keeps Monday off the crazy train. Definitely watch it though.

Thankfully today's ECM has 70's May 1st followed by only a few days in the 50's