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This one is really interesting. It looks to have a more favorable environment in the Caribbean, and there seems to be two camps on the ensembles with one camp turning it northeast pretty soon and the second getting this further west. Too soon to say which one is right. This is a threat in the Caribbean, less clear it can impact the continental US, though I’d watch the troughing in the east at the end of October. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98): A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a large and persistent area of showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation, but is producing winds of 30 to 35 mph north and east of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are expected to limit development during the next couple of days as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph, bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands beginning later today and continuing through Monday morning. By the middle to latter part of the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while the system slows down over the central Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Jelsema

Well the Euro would be an all timer. Drought bustah.

I don’t track winter particularly closely until I need to but I’m actually cautiously optimistic. Just not sure it’s another cool one—though things look pretty similar to last year at this time.

So seems like we are canceling winter before it starts? Glad I don't have to wait on heartbreak later on but can just get it out of the way.

Same with the Connecticut river coming through Turner Falls and Deerfield.

The SOI never went strong during the 23-24 Strong Nino. Here's the monthly data: 2023 4 -1.20 2023 5 -15.26 2023 6 -3.19 2023 7 -3.32 2023 8 -10.85 2023 9 -13.87 2023 10 -6.63 2023 11 -8.38 2023 12 -3.78 2024 1 3.96 2024 2 -15.55 2024 3 -0.35 From 2020-early 2023 we had 34-straight months of +SOI.... so this decade there has been a severe +SOI tendency compared to other ENSO variables. Oct 2025 is likely going to make the 15th straight month of +SOI, although none of those months have gone over +10.. it's been consistently weak Nina/negative-Neutral for 2 years now... and La Nina-like SOI for 5+ years, with a little blip to slightly negative during the 23-24 Nino.

Yea that lake water isn’t coming back. Maybe for the best. Let nature be nature

Blydenburgh County Park in Smithtown Friday afternoon

Blydenburgh was beautiful Friday afternoon. It's wild watching how fast the brush has taken over the lake bed.

It would not surprise me if it dies when it enters phase 7

Some nice color out in some of the county parks around here. The lower lying swampy areas have some really nice color, such as Caleb Smith state park and blydeburgh county park

UVA got super lucky today.

Lol Terps. Bruh this year is a different kind of losing...talent to win but yet they don't. Hat trick for MD sports just got a little more likely!

I'm always kind of surprised at you saying the WPO was very positive last Winter, are you referring to an actual index number? The 500mb looks neutral to slightly negative WPO.. Japan had a cold Winter

Finally got below freezing, first of the season.

DC hit 82 in February

Wasn't this the March that featured the intense Greenland block that retrograded and caused extreme cold and snow ( as you mentioned.) I recall many school closings that March.

Don, I want to make sure I’m following you correctly. You’re saying the errors increase at depth but that the at depth data is still reliable?

I think the only difference between this year and last year is 2nd year La Nina's have a little more Winter -PNA than the first year, and 2nd year -PDO's, when they don't correlate the first year, correlate the 2nd year at +1.24x. But La Nina is struggling right now.. it's starting to look like at the surface it won't make the 5 consecutive ONI month criteria. Subsurface is also weak right now.. barely -1 to -2 subsurface anomalies, and the SOI is weakly hanging around +5. Border line weak-Nina/negative-Neutral. Also last Summer we had a strong 4-corners High pressure.. that rolled forward to a pretty cold composite for the eastern 2/3 of the US for December and January (+PNA).. the SW, US High pressure wasn't as strong this Summer. However, 9 of the last 14 months have been +PNA [CPC], despite negative-ENSO. The Aleutian ridge hasn't yet gone back to levels it was before the 23-24 Strong Nino fwiw. It would surprise me if we saw a strong/persistent Aleutian ridge this cold season. It seems like it would have to kind of come out of nowhere.

Yeah there are a ton of variables in the global atmosphere and a lot of things going on currently. I think ill wait and see how things evolve from mid October through the end of the year. I do know the sentiment about this winter is very negative.

Lots of lightning and crashing thunder with the line coming through. Picked up a quick 0.64" which brings us to 0.92" for the day so far. EDIT: Now 1.19" for the day. EDIT2: 1.72"

Im not familiar with the towns, but 287 north of route 80 was beautiful on Thursday driving to Pearl River, NY. Im sure some of the state parks in NNJ are probably popping nicely.

It says he did save the data, and to send him a PM.