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This is also a general winter and seasonal forecast thread. My post about DC snowfall was only introduced when a poster asked me about it. You even liked the post. The way any ENSO state is being expressed in our sensible weather has been heavily influenced by the sudden jump in SSTs and global temperatures. So the WPAC warm pool along with other basins has been becoming a greater factor at times than ENSO. We saw this many times in recent years when El Niños in 18-19, 19-20, and 23-24 were heavily influenced by events in the WPAC and IO. So just looking at a one dimensional slice of ENSO east of the Dateline has become less relevant than it used to be. The first two winters couldn’t couple and we got more of a Niña background state. 23-24 had unusually strong WPAC and IO forcing with the record SSTs there and the typical El Niño cold trough in the East wasn’t able to develop. This past winter there was talk of a 13-14 analog. But the Pacific Jet was much stronger so places like Chicago had one of their least snowy winters instead of a 13-14 outcome. Plus the 850 mb cold pool was the smallest on record for the Northern Hemisphere preventing the cold trough formation in the Great Lakes like 13-14.

I don’t see that for next week (the rainy party at least), but rain chance for tomorrow has popped up fast. Seems like someone will get some rain that rotates in from the low offshore. But a huge variation on where that happens. NAM deluges VA, Hrrr pushes it into NJ mostly. Euro targets the metro areas, but with light rain.

You seem to have an abundance of bl on your lot.

Congrats Alex on the freeze…30.7 HIE 31 LPD 32 SLK 29 Thankfully only 43.0 here

48 when I left the house. Crisp.

After a nice cool start to September, looks like we get to normal in a couple days and then above normal for a while. Below normal rainfall. .

I think they can beat the Packers, especially if they clean up the penalties and not lose yards because of them. Need to force some turnovers.

48.9 this morning!! Let’s go .

Sure is. That's all I'm cutting now I can sell it right away.

Crazy change in the forecast for next week. Humid, cloudy, rainy. This is why I don't worry about dry in the fall. It doesn't last long.

lol he was available. You really think Lamar would miss a pivotal play because of a cramp? During the post game presser said he was cramping, which is why he didn't push Harbaugh to go for it when he made the decision to punt. That's the only time that tidbit of info came up. Personally I think he was covering for his coach in that moment because he was essentially asked whether he thought they should have gone for it. And why not use a time out there? if they make the first down they run the clock out. Harbaugh really has no feel for when to be aggressive and when not to be. In game/in the moment decisions and clock management are so fundamental for a HC, and he sucks at it. https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/breaking-news/article/lamar-jackson-said-cramps-played-role-in-critical-decision-to-punt-to-bills-john-harbaugh-stands-up-for-ravens-defense-141316519.html

Lamar wasn't available for that play, btw. He had gotten blown up the play before and came out with cramping. Don't wanna use a timeout there either since you were gonna need those if ya didn't get it (and that likely wouldn't have been enough time for Lamar to get back in there) So without the threat of Lamar and just Henry behind that struggling O-line...ehhhhh that was far less likely to work, imo Lamar said if he had been out there he would've insisted on going for it.

Oh wow I wonder what that feels like

Trynna picture what happened between the 2nd and third frame lol

42 here currently. We will see if we can get into the 30s for the first time this year.

The NEPAC situation is a complete disaster out here lol. Maybe the warmth will mean a more active Pac jet at least.

was in the 50's in nyc this morning where 90% of the people i saw was wearing one or a hooded sweatshirt..and tomorrow morning will be exactly the same..

National Hurricane Center

Yeah, that NEPAC Look would help augment and support a +PNA this Winter . Probably +TNH Episodes as well , looking at the whole Pac Profile. If we get some more improvement in the NATL we may get a better Winter Snow wise than most expect.

Well then... Can't say I Google members names but that's pretty effed up. I can't do anything but remove/hide his posts and will do so until he explains himself to someone with a higher pay grade. In the meantime report his posts that get by until they make a decision.

Yup...me too. I went through a direct hit from a tornado in North Texas when I was 6. I went through the eyewall of Hugo in Sumter, SC when I was 9. Neither one traumatized me like Helene. I'm rebuilding a house on the Nolichucky next to a memorial for an entire family. I hope we never experience anything like Helene again. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

lol Bears. They were in complete control and then just collapsed.

Enough with the chav speak and pretending to be street from the UK. This is a weather forum, not some TikTok twinkle toes dance off. Bad enough you use a famously racist troll account name as your user name here. If I ran this place I would have banned you immediately for the chutzpah of bringing that bad form into a serious forum like this. For those not familiar with the Barry Stanton racist Twitter persona, here is more information about it. Plenty more of this on Google. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13802719/amp/British-grandfather-left-terrified-police-arrest-cruel-social-media-trolls-use-pictures-family-online-spreading-racist-messages.html .

43/68 here today. Beautiful. Anybody else getting extra anxious every time the models spit out a gulf hurricane this year? I know any given run is unlikely, but I'm way more nervous than I've ever been.

'gon be a loong winter.........