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  2. At this point it's whatever. If it happens awesome, if not then spring is well on its way. Playing with house money on a solid B winter.
  3. I'm gonna have to disagree with that. Euro AI was one of the last models holding on to the idea of back-end heavy snow for most of MD
  4. Ill take a moderate event like 4-6. Enough to fall and be meaningful, should get us close to average, and wont be a pain in the ass to get rid of.
  5. We don't know if this is just a blip like the 12z Icon or legit, which I know you know. Unfortunately, we're back to biting our fingernails again every 6 hours for the next few days to find out. And then there's the "it's all downhill from here" issue since it can't realistically get better than this run. I wish I loved warm weather damn it.
  6. Yeah and it’s tedious enough that we could get almost nothing from this next 7 days too. Though I don’t think we’re done after Monday by any stretch. There’s risk for some warmth or rain but 18z GFS and some of these other random runs show you how it can break very very snowy too. Lots of cold lurking up north in the extended.
  7. Euro ai locked on to what would basically be the final solution for yesterdays event around 108 hours, but it had the general idea right of a storm tracking to our south well before that, and well before the other models.
  8. looks like the 18z EPS would have some fun members
  9. Yesterday
  10. Its a week system close to a week away - expect changes - as long as it doesn't turn into another sleet fest !
  11. this speaks for itself... AIFS-ENS is very similar to Feb 21. not advertising impacts like that, obviously, but it's becoming clear that this setup holds high end potential. we'll see how things trend in the coming days, but man that is uncanny
  12. If the AI can be right with this threat, I'll gladly call it a winter and welcome it's forecast at 360hrs off this run as well.
  13. Its a weak system on the euro and trended better. The model has been playing catchup all winter.
  14. Just rolled in here to see some serious weather porn. Damn peeps! Let’s get this MoFo and call it a winter. @stormtracker I hear you coughing from here.
  15. DT again keeps hating on this one saying the pattern doesn’t fit
  16. Potential for a March 2001 type run (I just mean activity level, not meant to trigger).
  17. Although today was AN mainly due to the low, it felt a good bit cooler, especially closer to the coast with a steady breeze off the cold ocean and most noticeably later in the afternoon. Looking forward to a chilly walk this evening.
  18. You are crazy... at 5 days I do not believe it even had QPF into Maryland... I ended with .5 inches of rain here in Central Baltimore County
  19. Its warm. Which I guess is a risk too. With a weak system nothing to pull the cold air down so we get light rain or white rain
  20. The EURO AI on the last storm locked in under 5 days. We are still a couple of days out from it locking in. It had a great run, that is it.
  21. when it gets to day 4, we think we've got a big one, but once we've reeled it out of the water, it's just a big boulder half of the time
  22. You’re definitely in a good spot.. but it’s nice to see it continue colder . I don’t think 3-6 you to SNH and 2-4 HFD north is a bad idea at this point
  23. I've never seen anything like it. 8 straight runs of the AIFS showing a significant to major+ snowstorm 6+ days out. I feel like we might be watching the meteorological equivalent of Dimaggio's 56-game hitting streak, lol.
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