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There you go again John... Using "logic and analytic content!" That has no place in a wx forum... Be better... Lol

Heh Yeah, severe around here. It is an aspect we can do. Just per climo and common experience, it's not as often observed. We all know this... still good to set up expectations ( that'll be ignored the first hash outta SPC the sets up in early May ...) We do just about everything else there is in the spectrum of weather impacts, much easier. Although, big heat is debatable. As an aside, big heat around here is weighted down by a continental bio-mist, confluent DP sources, and industrial fart ozones. It's amazing we don't have elevated cancer statistics compared to everywhere else, being that this region is akin to the atmosphere's colorectal exit canal for the continent. But as far as sending temperatures very high... in the many years I've lived through summers in SNE, there's always always ...100% of the time, something holds down between 1 and 5. When dealing with the big numbers in deterministic weather forecasting, ...maybe this has happened and I just don't recall, but I know it is rare to see high predicted to be 100 (in the first place), and have it end up 105... That happens in Iowa, our same latitude, far more often than here. But we'll put up boat loads of 98s.

We have seen a few instances this winter when said indices were poised to produce and the surface reflection didn’t pan out at our specific location. I suppose when they are unfavorable, some look past the less than ideal canvas for a doped up OP run that shows a bomb. When the backdrop is favorable it doesn’t necessarily mean it will be realized IOBY, however when it is not, the chances are reduced greatly and that is why the more experienced Mets are smashing their faces into the keyboard and ultimately have a better grasp of the reality of whether or not a storm even has the ability to form.

Flurries

Nothing like that really. This is also probably more WOR. Someone though could probably pickup 1/2-1" or so.

I believe we are headed into a stretch of normal winters like we use to have. Let's see what late Feb and March holds.

I would generally agree. Wake County got screwed this year and that is what we will remember.

Flurries in DC

WB 12Z 12K NAM is a weak, southern slider.....need to see improvement within 36 hours or we can finally put this threat to bed.

1-3”?

You can pull it, just make sure you’re not on a Zoom call.

I just don’t feel like taking out a loan to do this. Skiing is out of control ridiculous.

Just can’t be pulled yet . Maybe by 18 or 0z

How’s Bretton Woods for learn to ski type stuff? Thinking about it for next week but I’m not sure what I’m gonna do.

Drought severity expanded in NJ and other regions. Not a shock since all we had was a snow shower and some freezing drizzle in the past 2+ weeks. A warm March would be very bad unless preceeded by rainy weather. Snowpack melt helps a bit but won't be enough.

I wouldn't care if we had gotten some snow on top of the glacier, but most of that cold was wasted, other than keeping snow/ice cover otg for an extended period. At least our dry streak continues lol.

Might explain why the mean is 2"+ over a large area, but reduced from 0z by 1/2" generally.

The same euro has the warmup canceled out by another cold shot a week later.

31 currently. And I think I am going to start rating these cold snaps in bags of bird food. Currently on my 3rd bag since the snow back in January. While it is mainly to feed the birds in the winter it is also cable for our cats. Between suet cakes and the feeder and spreading seed on the snow covered deck they have had a steady stream of action. Even getting the squirrels up which prompts quite the frenzy at the back door.

The winter carnival is underway here and it’s a great time for it. Over 7” of powder the last few days. Torchlight skiing on tap tonight. Still snowing. The ice palace is quite nice.

If you keep saying that's all she wrote for winter, eventually you'll be right because that's the nature of the seasons. However, just want to point out you were saying winter was cooked in January before our coldest stretch in 10 years... definitive statements in long range forecasting is fools errand.

This event was meh.

A better representation of the SE US to minimize the warming effects of UHI as well as warming from increased traffic on airport runways (big problem at ATL for example) would be to use a rural station like the far N GA small town of Blairsville, GA, which has a pretty long record (back to 1931): Per my counting (hoping I didn’t miscount…if I did it should be only minimally off): Since 2020 including ties, it has had 24 different days with record highs and 7 days with record lows. Since 2010, 65 with highs and 25 with lows Since 2000: 87 with highs and 42 with lows Daily records from here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ffc

Dropped to a surprising 29 this morning.

The coldest is definitely behind us but cold enough to snow at the end of the month-hopefully and get it to time up with some moisture. We need some luck since we’re back to the garbage hostile Pacific pattern of the last few winters.