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Nothing from MRX has been updated since 1:30 or so

RAP has snow here in Wake at 6:00 PM tomorrow night, while the others don't have precip here until after midnight.

Risky forecast giving a haircut on south shore down near PYM/Duxbury/GHG/Carver....while it's possible they get sleeted on, they could really stack it up from ocean enhancement too.

Mesonet stations out west showing temps really diving. Frostburg down to 20°, Bittinger down to 18°, with single digit wind chills.

I don’t like these trends

RRFS was definitely worse

I think we’re okay for now with the NAM. It seems to be motivated by synoptic stuff imo which seems unlikely for the NAM to lead the way on.

GFS just again plows the area lmfao

It went from the mantle to the garbage can, Some get shook pretty easy.

Man, Long Island is on a razors edge. Close enough where its still feasible a small change in track makes a huge difference but still, models almost always underdo mid-level warmth and low-level cold. I'm sticking with a general 8-12 island wide though... counting on the thump coming in like a banshee

Maybe the GFS is just right?

MRX not do an AFD around 4pm today? Noticed ice cumulation map changed

That’s ugly for the GSP metro area. Yikes.

This front is no joke. Frederick: 41 State College: 16 Bradford, PA: 0

GFS held serve. Man do I wanna believe. NAM's hard not to consider tho. 0z's gonna be boom r bust for LSV. If Euro holds, I'll breathe a little better.

Yeah that seems like a fair bare minimum. To their credit, they’ve realized that the FV3 core the GFS/RRFS currently run on won’t work, and the next version of the RRFS will be run on an MPAS core. Early indications are that will be much better. With that said, that they’ve decided to still move ahead with making the RRFS/REFS operational and turning off the NAM and several other models that go into the HREF while the RRFS still is running on the shitty model core that they’ve acknowledged they need to replace is certainly a choice.

Better: GFS RGEM Worse: NAM ICON Held: GFSAI

Wow

Gfs still not budging

Now that this is finally into 3k NAM range we can have a look at the sounding to see what we’re dealing with in terms of warm air intrusion aloft. Sounding for LNS (Lancaster) at hour 56 As you can see, the warm air intrusion is pretty high, situated between the 850mb and 700mb layer. That’s why at first glance the 850 and 700 mb temp maps might look okay for an all snow column. Could it be too aggressive with the WAA at that level? Sure, but I’ll forewarn that this was the exact situation that sunk the significant snow in a lot of NE PA back on 12/26. NAM was about the only thing that caught that. And it doesn’t matter how cold it is at the surface. When you melt a falling a snowflake it doesn’t turn back into a snowflake when it refreezes. This is a different storm setup to be sure, and again.. there will be significant snows before any mixing where it happens. And sleet will be the predominant mix type given strength and depth of the arctic air mass.

Icon for some reason is way way warmer in the mid levels than everyone else. I assume it’s just a thing it does? Even in Cvill most soundings show sleet besides it. CMC and RGEM have lead the way with this storm since Monday. We all laughed at the CMC mixing back then but lo and behold it was right!

TSA seems to be jumping on what the GFS is saying too. They upped the totals in the WSW text to 8-14" with local 18" totals. Blowing and drifting snow also expected. Wonder if they will issue Blizzard Warnings? My area has never had one. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=TSA&wwa=winter storm warning

WSWarnings from Mexico to Montpelier. Impressive

Gotta love this. What are chances that a weather model is going to be able to identify a 15 mile wide strip of land where “thundersnow” will occur 36 hours before a storm starts?