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For sure taken with a grain of salt. All we should be taking away from these ensembles is that cold air availability and moisture transport could be plentiful over the next 3 weeks.

2" nice surprise here on si....started out with a temp of 36° a few hours ago, down to 32° now. Snowing lightly currently.

Coming down moderate here now. Finally starting to stick to everything except pavement. 33F.

A shame the back edge is near. The snow didn’t last more than an hour here really, just more precip west. probably end with around .25”

After a high of 43, it's 36 with light snow

Wow 15 feet

I wouldn't expect guidance to pick up on any Strat shenanigans just yet....give it another couple of weeks.

Euro shouldn't be looked at anymore. Only the AI models

Wow that’s awesome. Very nice.

I guess you haven’t been on then.

Short range moving east again. Afraid it's too little too late

another animation, I know, but this is how you get a MECS. retrograding Scandi block, 50/50 ULL, PNA rising nothing is guaranteed, but this is how you pull it off

This ensemble mean was absolutely high on drugs though earlier this winter, it was showing like 6 inches when it was clear we were getting nothing. Hopefully this time it’s onto something.

Unfortunately I’m like 95% sure it struggles with precip depiction. But the more the merrier regardless- I’d just chop this down by a quarter.

We ended up with 4.5" here in East Nantmeal with our 9th winter event of the season. Total snow fall this month is 5.6" which is 2.4" above normal for the 2025-26 season we have received 17.3" which is exactly 7.0" above normal through today.

Euro is cold and dry then ends winter.

Gonna need to change my briefs after that 12z ensemble suite. Lordy.

Keep ticking, Actually could use a tock or two.

Yeah. I mean that would be a winter canceler after the high we've been on today.

For those wondering about how Ai is being incorporated by the Euro and GFS, they are being done two separate ways. Both are hybrids of the base system. Where they completely differ on trains of thought is...Euro is used for post processing and corrects the main models known bias's to increase accuracy and precision. The GFS is being implemented to increase the main models speed and lower computing power to save money moving forward. So that's why you hear people such as Spann talking more and more about the Euro Ai and not so much about the GFS Ai. As far as accuracy, what little that has been released publicly is so far the Euro Ai is miles ahead of everything, with only Googles DeepMind teams pure Ai system keeping pace.

Temp down to 38 with heavy rain and a few flakes mixed in. Event started as pure snow with temps in the low 40’s.

Agreed, I don't think we see anything significant, anything will be slight ticks. I do agree with him though about beefing up the dynamics, that is going to be important IMO, especially farther west into the region

Glad it's snowing nicely there. The vibes for all should be much improved this time tomorrow.

What a positive bust this is. We take!!

Just looking way out there, we may see a repeat of the upcoming 2 weeks reload and repeat the 2nd and 3rd week in February. With the first week in feb being a brief relax. You can already see the Pac ull start to pull back at the end of the EPS. Looks like the ridge is about to spike again out west. Follows the weeklies evolution. All while the Atlantic remains favorable. Maybe we see a Nina start to the winter and a Nino ending.