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lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

Snow showers incoming

I’d be skeptical of advisory amounts outside of SE Mass and the Cape. System is unbelievably paltry until it gets an ocean assist

Lol..I’ll take my one inch.

An advisory with this map?

Frequent light to moderate snowfalls reminds me of when I was a kid. It's not terrible if the warmups aren't too much. One of my earliest memories, which may have been exaggerated by the years, was of it seeming like every morning waking up to a new snowfall. Mid to late 60s, maybe early 70s it would have been, probably more than 1 winter. Don't care whether that was quite the reality, I'm hanging on to that memory... and 1978.

He sharing his good stuff with ya?

A little fuzzy from the holiday drinks but I think I'm seeing the same...

Skynet is pretty weak sauce on the warmup out beyond the 7th. I don't think CNE-northward ever sees any liquid precip.

This is a pretty good trend from an albeit not-the-best model of reliability....This d11-16 5d map from the 12z GFS. That is a big time winter pattern if it verifies.

Same here. 23.5 was low. Proper winter morning

Rip and read?

Yeah I don’t think 4” is reasonable but 3” wouldn’t be shocking

Gonna need big ratios I think though to be seeing 3-4" numbers...it's a pretty dry system. Even the upslope spots on the mesos are having trouble squeezing out 2 tenths of liquid.

Lol ya me and wolfie are BFF's now

My idea for December was a very cold and a very warm period - worked pretty well.

Low of 24, much colder than expected.

Who knows if the 12z GFS is right or not. I certainly don't. But for the sake of discussion...if that cold front comes in at the angle and slow speed that it does on that run, that is prime for over-running sometime after the 11th. We have seen that repeatedly during the past few years with Nina winters.

My bad yes 100% misread that and you are right..

Yeah it’s winter, there has been cold around. Just need to time something up. What people forget is that when a bunch of twitter Mets post rah rah rah amazing pattern buckle up…what that really means is that the models think there may be a good pattern in 10-14 days. But we all know how good models are from that far out. If you buy every declaration of amazing pattern you run out of money fast. It’s best to just remember it’s winter, it hasn’t been insanely warm, it can snow, just hope for some storms. When something gets to within 3-4 days get excited and hope for no rug pull.

The TOL and ORH hills down to Moosup do well on SW upslope . We’ve seen it quite a few times over the years

seems like they think there might be some slight upslope ?

Thanks! .

We snow