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Heavy rain here

What we really need is a stalled frontal boundary with multiple waves of low pressure riding along it. Instead we get lows going into the OH valley and mostly dry fronts leading to NW flow behind it and cool air.

Following the Op Euro. Still the best model ever created

It's the context in which you use it though: If you were saying it is biased colder because of the 3-year period after the eruption, that would make sense, but another pattern prevailed, opposite of the Pinatubo probability.

91-92 is one of those very rare situations, and I don't think it should be used for anything unless there's a major volcanic eruption, or if you have a hunch there's going to be one.

Confirmed smaller than pea size hail.

Big rain drops falling right now. Pelting my house. Now pinging... Possible hail.

I'm big believer in Global SSTA's the year before, May-Nov, being a great indicator for Winter WPO. A big one is the Indian Ocean - Warm SSTAs correlate with +WPO at 0.5 (75% chance of positive) and visa-versa for cold SSTAs, relative to the global mean.

Unfortunately, after nine days straight of a widespread wetter than normal signal in the SE US for the week April 27-May 3, today’s Euro Weeklies run was much drier in most of the SE: Yesterday’s run: 9th wet run in a row Today’s run: drier signal much of the SE

Good example of this winter could look with a strongly +NAO/WPO. I am with you on the NAO, but main question is the WPO...I could see that being a bit more negative.

Well I guess it all comes out in the wash, kinda. While I just watched the last 2 or 3 severe outbreaks in our sub blow by with nary a drop, we received .25 inches total in a couple of quick, severe warned downpours. One elevated cell around 11pm last night and another around 4am. Had dime size hail with the first and pea size hail with the second. They both lasted less than 10min and the wind gusted to 45 with the first. The ground slurped it up like a drunk waiting on the bar door to be unlocked. Farmers were out doing their thing by 11, dust everywhere again. That's .6 locally for April so far. Yay

As good a mindset as any

i proposed to my now-wife in Grindelwald!

LFG Flyers!!!

Wow. Looks like the high back home was only 53°.

It was cool through most of June…then it got hot.

Let’s keep setting the expectations for winter 26-27 lower and lower….that’s usually a good recipe for a surprise. I like it.

Cooler start to May March 2026 was 2nd most positive NAO on record out of 900 analogs. Roll forward to May looks like a match:

It will turn briefly springlike tomorrow. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. However, it will turn cooler on Friday with temperatures topping out in the lower 60s. The weekend will be even cooler with highs in the upper 50s. Some showers are possible during the weekend. There remains some risk for a more meaningful rainfall. Beyond the weekend, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal for the remainder of April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -5.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.013 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.4° (1.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I've had one for over 20 years, brought it in for service once, still have it the new house.

86 here today. Warmest day of the year by far. Hopefully we can get some good storms tomorrow to get the perennials going, then back to normal with 50s/60s in the extended.

NW Ohio had a stormy evening.

Yeah maybe lol