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September 20 Euro and GFS runs: no tropical development through October 6. lol at all the people saying the lid was gonna come off in the second half of September and early October. After Gabrielle that MDR is closed for the season, could still see a Caribbean/Gulf storm in October but this season will be a massive forecast bust.

I got 8" in that storm. I remember going down to town and it was just drizzling when I drove home gradually snow appeared and then about a quarter of a mile from the house everything was covered as I came around the last bend.

31.8° at 1P1. Didn’t expect them to do it the first night.

Mins

Streets were damp in Vienna when I woke up, but neither IAD nor DCA reported any rain.

43 here in the Berkshires this AM, no complaints here. Currently 60F back in HPN.

42.5° Not too bad until I went outside and felt the breeze accompanying it.

34° for the low. Frost on the car tops. Looks like MVL is 32°

What, a 30 to 40% chance of showers doesn’t get your heart pumping?

Tuesday looks warm. The rest of the week looks meh

The Baltic Sea says hi. Record highs the last two days here. Heading to Stockholm tomorrow where it’ll be 20-30 degrees cooler thank goodness.

Thankfully stayed in the 50’s here

36.5F at a PWS a mile from me. My low was only 41, but that I think is my seasonal low. nice morning

Yeah, from the 60s to early 90s within a few inches of 25” was very common. There were a few seasons of near 30”+ and a few 20” and below. So a very balanced snowfall pattern during that stable colder era. The snowfall became all or nothing since 93-94. Most seasons have been over 30” or under 20” since then as the winters have continued to warm. The storm tracks remained cold enough to our south for many 30”+ seasons from 09-10 to 17-18. The warmer storm tracks since 18-19 have resulted in most seasons ending up with under 20” of snow. So it has been challenging to get a 30”+ season. Plus NYC hasn’t had a season near 25” since 12-13. So losing the higher end 30”+ seasons and continuing the decline in the near 25” seasons has resulted in the under 20” season becoming most common. NYC snowfall seasons near 25” 12-13….26.1” 08-09…27.6” 92-93…24.5” 90-91….24.9” 86-87….23.1” 84-85….24.1” 83-84….25.4” 82-83…..27.2” 81-82……24.6” 78-79…..29.4” 76-77…..24.5” 73-74…..23.5” 71-72…..22.9” 69-70….25.6” 64-65….24.4”

Looks fairly warm right thru Helloween .

probably some folks turning theirs on this morning with those lows

34/30 at MVL Neighbor’s PWS is 33/32. Sub-freezing at SLK, HIE, BML.

not really the air was dry and there was a northerly breeze..

If the recurve is far enough south this storm could stay tropical longer, possibly threatening the Azores. I would rule out land impacts just yet

You’re crazy man lol. I was scared witless that night..every few minutes, a fresh tree came down and you never knew where the next one was gonna land. The gusts had to be legitimately over 100 at its peak. It was like being in the middle of a screaming washing machine for many hours. And then there was the long cleanup which took weeks. Trust me torchy, it’s no good!

85 for the high felt hot today lol

They’re out now? I didn’t see a single one last year, and heard similar from others. Actually, maybe the only one I found was dead. That would explain a lot.

iirc it was on a sunday during the patriots game?

I am not too worried yet. Its dry like this on average years during this time frame. Concerns: 1. Being a neutral year, we are in for a real cold and snowy winter which will definitely help the groundwater tables. See lots of northeaster's and the potential freezing rain/sleet events early in December. Expecting some nice rains by mid October as the warm pattern breaks down. A good tropical storm up the east coast can really help get us out this stubborn pattern. 2. The leaves are scorched brown and falling off. No color until we have temps in the 40's again and highs only in the low 60's. Do not see that happening until the second week of October folks. 3. I agree. We need some decent rain by Wednesday, otherwise burn bans will likely go into effect in the next week or so. The canopies are dry and the scorched leaves falling are not helping. 4. Even the tent caterpillars died off in this early warm spell before autumn. This is been the latest I have run the AC in a real long time as overnight lows struggle to get to the 50's