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Canada gives us some good temps. WRF FV3 as well

Yep. Just the big dirt ice piles to look forward to. Probably take several days or more of 70s to get rid of those.

Interesting... I did not know you could do that. I will definitely look into this website more

I know what you're getting at... It's the difference between a well mixed warm sector with amorphous WCB trafficking strata and more DP related warmth. It's 64/57 below the warm front and E of the main b-c axis. That kind of warm up is impressive probably more so in the DP/ thermodynmaic quotient. The kinetic side of the temp is hugely above normal but not out of control in this kind of warm up. The other kind, the big dawg warming events that are more index correlated ... those are ridge dome deals with larger scale DVM compression through an unseasonably early 850 mb to surface kinetic layer. The actual thermodynamic quotient of the atmosphere is surprisingly low... 75/27 type thing... Moisten that air mass and it's 44 F beat the red head step child weather. Those kind of larger planetary wave things are related to the loss of polar index/mass field modulations on the mid latitudes, and when the air is dry and there's 850 mb anomalies rattling around in the ridge, the kinetic ceiling is high. Which by the way...either tends to proceed a -NAO burst. All that warmth then terminates at high latitude and there's a height growth up there.

Was able to get a measure of ice at 1/16" with the trees having a little more. Ugly stuff but picturesque. Lost power for a little more than a 1/2 hr, too, just a bit ago.

2.5" since 7 AM here. Surprise! Looks like a rare boom.

What is this crap? Worst weather week of my life.

Go bold

White St Paddy’s day. Sure I’m in. You can add white to any holiday.

The snow banks are getting ridonkulous even though we’re only near the seasonal normal now. This is the new high water mark.

dewpoints will be close to 50-55 that will do the dirty work not to mention full sun early next week

1.78" from this storm. Snow pack still holding strong. 60% coverage. Hopefully shes gone by sunday.

Just going from memory here but one major difference between those extremely anomalous warm periods is there was tremendous support within the Arctic domain...meaning there was little or nothing to fight back again the building heights or compress them. Also, notice with those periods too is those patterns didn't really come with fronts readily advancing across the eastern third of the country...it's a much different story building heights naturally (such a a response to lowering heights upstream a.ka. west trough) versus forcing heights to build due to say a propagating front. When you get cold fronts traversing the OV and into the Northeast, more than likely there will be at least one wave developing along the front and that's what ultimately screws us in the warm sector department, particularly when the look across eastern Canada favors to squash said low.

On the brochure for why you stay away from New England springs it reads, "It's great! Warm enough for nothing interesting but cold enough to eff us from nice weather. This is for Mar-early May."

I would not be the least bit surprised if a backdoor front passes by at least part of the area on Tuesday..

Went up to Shenandoah and watched the sun rise above the inversion with a friend! Hiked up to Mary’s rock and then the mid level clouds broke and it got sunny. Could see the mist try to build and make its way up the mountain. At the top it was mid 60s and within 5 miles it was 50s and grey.

Gfs is great. Warm enough for nothing interesting but cold enough to eff us from nice weather. This is for Wednesday.

Agreed...this is what Will and said a week ago... probably just ends up no side of the warm season/cool season debate taking a trophy

38 here in Allentown and 62 in Pittsburgh.

Don't threaten me with a good time..

I hope so-the AIFS being right but we know how these backdoor setups usually go this time of year and even into May some years-they’re more aggressive than models show 100+ hours out. And the waters have a long way to go to start warming up. Jones Beach has been 35-36 degrees the last few days. That’ll make itself felt any way it can.

TT, My apologies for wording that as if those were your own words. That was my bad. I have no reason to refute the 0.35C rise of the last decade. 2023 had that sharp rise and that hasn’t come off with a new record likely in the way this year. But that’s just one decade and thus on its own it’s statistical credibility is much lower than that of the 0.2C of the prior 45 years. I assume you agree. I’d think that a “correction” of sorts could very well occur later this decade after the upcoming El Niño and would be surprised if the next decade were to warm close to another 0.35C. Reversion to the recent mean decadal increase unless for some unknown reason the true underlying mean increase has suddenly risen.

Agreed .. if using just just climate, but therein is an interesting consideration. Part of climate practicum is being aware of recency, without it being a recency bias - tricky difference there... But over the last 10 or 12 years, recency has verified something like 1/3 or more of the Feb thru Apr periods as hosting an exotic early season warm event. 80s dude. With warm fronts up near Baffin Island for f sake. I've seen that happen ... yet never saw that happen in the previous 40 some odd years of my life. It's a new thang, man... get jiggy wit' it. Or, has that stopped. I don't know, but recency has demonstrated it's no longer merely plausible... it can and will do so. So, what the models were showing 7 to 10 days ago was another one of those crazed potentials - or at minimum, suggesting as much. Couldn't dismiss it out of hand because of recency. Not really hard. There were several runs back then with 582 dm height contours safely N of Logan's latitude. But like you were saying .. idiosyncrasies that are equally ( obviously ) important raised some flags.. Canada and so forth

Thanks for sharing. I'm well below normal as well. I know that many here only care what MDT has recorded as their basis for for determining snowfall, but I'm WELL below what MDT has recorded this winter and quite frankly...to me, that's what matters.

That's what I have here in Cape Neddick.