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I will say one thing. The flu is gaining strength in some areas. The blessing of any warmup would be to get people outside some, and get some air. Flu and cold outbreaks go hand-in-hand. I don't think the flu shot has been working super well this season. I will take a chinook over a house full of kids with the flu!!!!!

I do really well in early season events when I can push the ruler a few inches further into unfrozen ground. The tall grass is just icing on the cake.

One can enjoy the deep winter with weather chart drama ... One can embrace the surreal warmth that obliterates winter. There may be no sense for loss in either experience. Either can be fulfilling. I realize we all have our druthers. Most would agree. Yet, it's interesting how those agreeing folk seem to take actual offense at other's. Like it's the stranger's responsibility to be sensitive to one's posting mood, or the flavor of the moment. It's a weird pastime. All these social media are. Fucked Book to Instacrap, OK Stupid to who knows what dating app ... and this, too. There's some sort of an emptiness issue that permeates the souls of modernity. And all this "state of provision" that we take for granted. You know .. it's almost like the law of lessening returns also hits when we look around, and should see how it creates so many choices, yet they are lost in a blizzard of opportunity. Irony how overabundance seems to empty out minds. People would rather then "faux-fill" their gift of brief time for their lives involved in this intractable preoccupation. It's lost because there is no value in gains unearned. If you work for joy, you find it there. Modern experience removes too much of the work. No joy. But the mind still seeks it... so we create the illusion of it in the back and forth of this electronic game.. It all comes down to managing dopa. People can't get it from their lives, why? who knows ... something like boredom from above. But it's easier to seek immediate satisfaction of a dramatic weather-chart cinema. Failing that, they seek it in the group modes of the moment, which are often spontaneously occurring bi-polar flashes of perspectives - how things are so bad, then not so bad this and that. Meanwhile, the more objective viewer sees 0 difference before and after. And then, if some hapless sort wonders into the moment with their particular druthers, and it's not in sync with that mode, they were then irresponsible for other people's delicate sensibilities while were enjoying their dopa .... than they're buzz killed like a swarm murder hornets. This is kind of a toxic relationship.

A little dated (from the spring), but I chanced upon this today and I think it's quite relevant. This lines up with what I've been seeing - the common adage "the wet get wetter" just doesn't seem to be accurately reflecting the conditions on the ground. We've now had several years in a row east of the Rockies (the last couple extending all the way to the coast) with fairly extensive drought. While annual precipitation numbers might not be too far from historical means, enhanced evapotranspiration seems to be drawing down surface and ground waters.

Tis true, there's nearly always more in the yard than on on board, especially early in the season. Its even better if the ground isn't frozen yet, you can get the snow ruler to dig into the mud a bit. Winning.

Blocky gfs run

Blocky gfs run

All we can do over next few weeks is hope something pops up as models/ens don't have much in the way of snow opportunities. We still have some possible snow showers Friday after the front goes through that maybe can whiten us up briefly after the big melt down on Thursday/Friday. Also Canadian looks to try to pop a little something on the 22nd but fails. So something possibly to watch. Also, something I noticed this week. Looks like Tidbits is way ahead on Pivotal on getting the GFS run out. I always thought Pivotal was ahead of Tidbits on that.

Carver, no doubt we need a pattern reset. I hope that will be enough. It has been colder than normal this month, which i hope we can continue that to some extent in January. Typically niñas favor my area, but not every time

The Niña is going to reach its peak soon. This is the coldest reading in region 3.4 we’ve seen for this entire event

We’ve gone above freezing for the first time in 22 days at MSP.

Lansing has records back in the 1860's which had some very cold winters. So I looked at how this year compared. Impressive to be sure. 15.63 1868-12-01 1868-12-15 1 1 1 0 16.93 1867-12-01 1867-12-15 2 2 2 0 17.20 1917-12-01 1917-12-15 3 3 3 0 17.20 1876-12-01 1876-12-15 3 3 4 0 17.33 1895-12-01 1895-12-15 5 4 5 0 17.53 1958-12-01 1958-12-15 6 5 6 0 18.47 1976-12-01 1976-12-15 7 6 7 0 18.70 1904-12-01 1904-12-15 8 7 8 0 19.33 1989-12-01 1989-12-15 9 8 9 0 19.43 1864-12-01 1864-12-15 10 9 10 0 19.77 1893-12-01 1893-12-15 11 10 11 0 19.90 2025-12-01 2025-12-15 12 11 12 0 Here's what MRCC has for Detroit 19.57 1958-12-01 1958-12-15 1 1 1 0 20.03 1917-12-01 1917-12-15 2 2 2 0 21.30 1876-12-01 1876-12-15 3 3 3 0 21.37 1976-12-01 1976-12-15 4 4 4 0 22.07 1895-12-01 1895-12-15 5 5 5 0 22.10 2025-12-01 2025-12-15 6 6 6 0 22.30 1989-12-01 1989-12-15 7 7 7 0 22.63 1937-12-01 1937-12-15 8 8 8 0 22.90 2005-12-01 2005-12-15 9 9 9 0 22.97 1893-12-01 1893-12-15 10 10 10 0

This is kind of what I am talking about. Two cold fronts are now firmly present right in the middle of the Chinook. Originally, it was torch city. I wouldn't be surprised if some didn't see a snow shower or flurry from this. The 12z GFS won't be as cool as the 6z as it gets bogged down(guess where?) just after 200.

Don’t remember the torch. Remember the cold though. It was brutal

I don't think so. Today: 2 weeks from now: Still on our side of the globe and not too far from a widespread cold snap that could extend at least a couple of weeks down this way in January. Yes, it's one ensemble run, but the source/placement of cold air hasn't really changed all that much from run to run.

They also had a climate where their September was like December is in the Holocene. Back to school in snow gear?

And @IrishRob17 thought i was joking when i said i keep the lawn higher for the last mow for that reason. Snow sticks to the top of the grass, i bury the ruler all the way to the frozen ground underneath, can easily inflate my totals another 2” sometimes lol. of course on the flip side is the guys who poopoo 1-3” snowfalls saying “it wont stick on the roads we wont get that much the models are wrong”…because we measure on 42nd street apparently.

Not sure how many cave people did Christmas. lol

Bring on a Christmas Ice Storm. The cave people did Christmas without electricity, we can too.

First half of December was very impressive in its persistence of cold. The depth of cold was more impressive in the Great Lakes than the northeast, but even then, the widespread magnitude of well below normal temperatures was impressive over a huge area. The entire first half of December is almost ironic given the numerous posts in this very thread about volcanoes, cold being brief and not widespread, etc. First half of December rankings: Flint: 3rd coldest in 105 years Ann Arbor: 4th coldest in 145 years*** Detroit: 5th coldest in 152 years Grand Rapids: 5th coldest in 133 years Green Bay: 6th coldest in 140 years Toledo: 7th coldest in 153 years Cleveland: 8th coldest in 155 years Pittsburgh: 8th coldest in 151 years Baltimore: 10th coldest in 154 years Lansing: 12th coldest in 163 years Chicago: 13th coldest in 154 years Milwaukee: 13th coldest in 155 years Washington DC: 19th coldest in 154 years New York City: 25th coldest in 157 years For Detroit, going back to 1906 (as far as I have records), 2025 is officially only the 2nd December to have 1”+ snowcover every day for the first half of December. The only other time was 1910. To be fair, we should include 1974, as a massive snowstorm hit on Dec 1st but the snow depth at 7am was just a T. Even then, only 1910, 1974, and 2025 were nonstop blanketed in snow the entire first half of December. This shows just how early it REALLY is, but we just have to hope that the entire load of cold wasnt blown before the Winter Solstice. *** I included Ann Arbor as even though it isnt a first order station, it is one of the few stations you will find whos location has never moved (Univ of Mich campus).

First half of December was very impressive in its persistence of cold. Southern Michigan seemed the most impressive record-wise in terms of all-time placement, but widespread temp departures of -10F to -13F encompassed the sub. Flint: 3rd coldest in 105 years Ann Arbor: 4th coldest in 145 years Detroit: 5th coldest in 152 years Grand Rapids: 5th coldest in 133 years Green Bay: 6th coldest in 140 years Toledo: 7th coldest in 153 years Cleveland: 8th coldest in 155 years Pittsburgh: 8th coldest in 151 years Lansing: 12th coldest in 163 years Chicago: 13th coldest in 154 years Milwaukee: 13th coldest in 155 years For Detroit, going back to 1906 (as far as I have records), 2025 is officially only the 2nd December to have 1”+ snowcover every day for the first half of December. The only other time was 1910. To be fair, we should include 1974, as a massive snowstorm hit on Dec 1st but the snow depth at 7am was just a T. Even then, only 1910, 1974, and 2025 were nonstop blanketed in snow the entire first half of December.

Meh typical cutter we see every year. A week ago everyone was crying about Torchmas now....

Thanks Man ! Great Information !!!

No thanks for extended outages. No one under 7 here, but on Christmas our 3-bedroom, one bathroom home will have 11 people (with 7 ladies) with ages 7 to 79. Should be taking notes that all of our big storms have been cutters. All of the big storms have avoided us since April of last year.