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Toms river would have helped, thats ok. thank you though! Sometimes i regret including Ulster in that lol, PITA with crazy elevation over 4k around Slide.

I would also have to think too that processes involved in the evolution of this whole system across the southern states and across the East would end up far outweighing any influence of the MJO. I actually can't wait because this very subject is on the agenda in my advanced forecasting class

I was fun looking at the varaince in all of te local temps earlier this morning. -5 was my low, while Legoland, 7 miles away had a low of 3. I reference that one because they have a Davis station as well.

I gotta to send you an update on my seasonal total so far. It’s at 11.6” Williamsburg Brooklyn but will update further when you are ready

12z it’s going to be huge. If there was in fact, some missing data at 0Z and we saw a bit of a reversal of 6Z because the data was back. We should know in a couple hours if that was legit. Even a baby step at 12z would make me feel better. .

12z NAM h5 54

I sent this prophetic text to a friend before yesterday's unpleasantries

Nam slow as heck this morning. Stuck at 48 for awhile now. One thing is for sure.. that HP means BUSINESS. 1056 pumping into the continental us

Taking a quick peek a the 12k NAM for the 12z run, the high coming out of Canada appears stronger? Looks like 1054mb+. Not sure what, if any downstream implications this would have.

Worcester, Pa had a low of -6. Neighbor had -5.6. . Up to 11 now at 9:30 am.

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INSGW

NAM @ 54 hrs .

4 this morning. House was down to 61 when I got up

Thats basically what we got in the Storm of the Century in 1993. Obviously a different setup, but similar brutal cold temps the following days too - made sledding quite treacherous and shoveling tedious.

Concerning? There is a decent number of lows big time west of us. I don't think this is far from being down trending.

If it plays out with more ice/sleet, I think the Canadian will have modeled it best. It has been honking heavy mixed precip longer than any other models.

Yeah I mean if the high weakens or moves too far east the whole setup changes. I feel like we still have 36 hours before we can really lock in a solution

Hour 42 is in NAM range. It’s really beyond 60 hours that you just gotta take it with a grain of salt

Probably millions of weenies hitting refresh killing the servers. 12z will be rolling shortly, let's hope we continue to see a strong interaction between the northern and southern stream like last night.

There is no direct linear forcing ... the MJO produces a latent heat flux which disperses down stream, and that is adds to ridging ... troughing ..etc. That whole process, processes out any direct causality, and leaves it to vestigial ( ie. modulation, not a forcer) influence. That's all I'm saying. And it is true. I also did not say that. I said "I'm not sure I'm following..." in this case the context; I was just trying to remind people that the MJO does not set tables.

Right now I would not be worried about significant, long duration power outages. There is no signal for high winds and this is going to be a light, fluffy snow. Looks like cold powder.

I’m at around 10+ down here inland Toms River, checks out. Nice map!

So your saying there's a chance

It's been said, but this part of this morning's AFD is what I'll be thinking about through today's model runs. "With the parent features still across the more barren high latitudes, models may take another day or two to resolve such features with better precision (note: recon flights are expected to take place near the Southwest CONUS later today - that`s where models have been most sensitive to changes"