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A couple climate statistics for Allentown as we wrapped up August: The average temperature was 70.0F, the coolest August since 2008. Likewise the average minimum was 58.3F, the lowest since 2008. The lowest minimum recorded was 45F, which is the lowest August min since 2000 (which tied with a min of 45). The next year that recorded a lower minimum in August is 1986! 1.6" of precip fell, which is the driest August since 2008.

Just off the top of my head it definitely did not work in 2013….low Atlantic ACE, cold-neutral ENSO and one of the most positive NAO/AO winters in recorded history

Didn't we have a drought heading into fall last year? I recall we had like two straight weeks without a single cloud in the sky or something freaky like that.

My numbers for the month of August 2025- Averaged high was 79.2 degrees vs a normal of 82.7 degrees, -3.5 degrees below average and 3rd coolest recorded since records kept. Highest temp was 88.2 degrees on the 18th. Averaged low was 58.3 degrees vs a normal of 60.4 degrees, -2.1 degrees below average and 5th coolest. Lowest temp was 44.1 degrees on the 28th and 29th. Overall averaged temp was 68.7 degrees vs a normal of 71.6 degrees, -2.9 degrees below normal and slides into 2nd coolest August of record, behind 1992's 68.5 degrees and in front of 2014's 68.9 degrees. Total rainfall was 2.04 inches vs a normal of 3.32 inches, a -1.28 inches below normal and 6th driest August of record. Wettest day was the 22nd with 0.79 inches falling. There were 11 days with measurable, 6 days with a 'T' and 14 dry days. Highest wind recorded was 25 mph on the 30th. Besides all the near monthly records mentioned above, there were 3 daily records. Two new record lows on the 28th and 27th, and a new 'warm minimum' set on the 1st. Pretty strange and remarkable month. Dry (but many days of distant thunder heard for hours with only getting a 'T' or 0.01") and very cool overall, with many days in the 70s for highs (only 12 days +80 high) although quite humid at times. Then very chilly to end the month on the last 6 days. Records go back to October 1979.

Even if we go above who cares at that point.. averages going down down down..

Wow. And Centennial Airport got 0.40" for the month. Insane difference in less than 30 miles. We got 1.07" at my house, roughly 3 miles north of the airport.

Last week of August was 7th coldest on record at Detroit which plummeted the hot summer ranking out of the top 20.

4 years since Ida sheesh time flies

It must be the dry conditions helping highs like Brian said. At least with the low dews it's still cooling down nicely at night, even in the city.

The sun is a bit active today. 10 sunspots or so? Space weather has been more exciting than Earth weather.

Can confirm that this is likely, at least on the NJ side (subject to the final call by the author).

my forecasted highs for this week have all been boosted 3-5 degrees from a few days ago and are now in the 80-83 range

Happy Meteorological Fall...

Here's where things currently stand. I expect the drought coverage to increase on Thursday's update:

Sun is starting to come out here.

My garden is sand. I have less than .5” rain since July 1. You can also walk across the entire Susquehanna in Harrisburg and not get water above your waist. How do I know? An idiot I know did this yesterday.

It's possible that the local climate is moving into a cyclical drier period, even as the overall climate has grown wetter. If so, one might see an increase in underperformance cases. Canada's dryness is more widespread than what is expected, in general, for summer. The climate models don't provide interannual variability, though. Some climate projections from Canada's most recent national assessment in 2019. According to more recent research, summers are expected to see warmer and somewhat wetter conditions in western Canada and warmer drier conditions in both central and eastern Canada according to more recent information. The paper also notes that the climate models have shown a wet bias, so far. Finally, with regard to drought risk, it notes: The highest number of consecutive dry days are clustered in the northern regions of Canada (Fig. S7). Aside from the north, high elevation areas along the Rockies, north-western regions and the Canadian prairies have a higher number of CDD than the rest of the country. Sushama et al. (2010) reported similar results with the highest number of dry days concentrated in northern Canada followed by the Canadian Prairies. Given that Canadian Prairies is already a drought-prone area, future increase in dry spells over the region is concerning as shown by several other studies (Singh et al., 2020; Bonsal and Regier 2006).

NYC is already in drought conditions. I can see a repeat of last fall, maybe not as bad.

Today looks like a total bummer. Nothing but clouds out here in block island.

Thanks, Don! The linked article refers to both overall “Atlantic hurricane activity” (ACE-like) and “US hurricane activity”. However, those two things have a decent correlation to each other. So, maybe it works for both. Also, it says as you said that it looks only through “early Sept.” or midpoint of season. So, I’ll assume 9/10 as the cutoff. Out of curiosity because there have been only 5 sub -0.25 DJF NAOs from the early 1980s through the year the article was written (2016), which is the period the article says works best for DJF NAO, I looked at the 5 seasons preceding those winters through Sept 10th. I’m keeping these in mind: -Avg ACE through Sept 10 is ~55 (varies with era) -Avg # of CONUS H hits through Sept 10th 1980-2016 is 0.9 1. 1984-5: -no US H hits through 9/10 (BN): works -ACE through 9/10 was 7.9 (far BN): works 2. 1986-7: -2 US H hits through 9/10 (AN): doesn’t work -ACE through 9/10 was 12.3 (far BN): works 3. 1995-6: -1 US H hit through 9/10 (near avg): no signal to work with -ACE through 9/10 was 153.9 (near record high with only one season, 1933, possibly higher): doesn’t work (major fail) 4. 2009-10: -0 US H hits through 9/10 (BN): works -ACE through 9/10 was 38.8 (slightly BN): works 5. 2010-1: -0 US H hits through 9/10 (BN): works -ACE through 9/10 was 64.6 (slightly AN): doesn’t work —————— So, for these 5 -NAO winters: -# of US hits through 9/10: worked three times and didn’t work once (1995 had a lack of signal) -ACE through 9/10: worked three times and didn’t work twice (including 1995’s huge fail) ————— Out of curiosity, I checked the 2020 H season because of the 2020-1 -NAO DJF: -3 US H hits through 9/10: doesn’t work -ACE through 9/10 was 50.5 (NN): no signal to work with @40/70 Benchmark@snowman19

Beautiful first day of Fall. 47F for the low. Amazing stretch of weather.

Its not. Looks like scattered showers

Central park's average is 30". If you use the older climo then it's like 25". Still though, even just a December with at least 5" is very strongly correlated to the total snow for the season.

First day of Fall and it feels like it. Nice breeze. 70/56

May be tied to your October MJO rule...or a coincidence.