All Activity

i feel like we been baited nearly every day since last Wednesday we've been tracking/talking about this system.

This still feels like classic bait…but Euro skynet suite showing some enthusiasm makes this a little more interesting. Still need other guidance to jump on board.

That is a pretty crazy mean

no clue homie, the thing that catches my eye is the AIFS, not the ensemble but main model, is now coming N/stronger with the low for the first time yet for this storm. Even last night at 00Z when the euro showed a big hit, it wanted nothing to do with it.

It will turn somewhat cooler to close the week. Temperatures will mainly top out in the middle to upper 30s on Thrusday and Friday. Thw weekend will see highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. It could become even milder with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 40s next week. Precipitation could arrive on Sunday or Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was -1.20 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.676 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

What’s up with the AIFS, it’s so damn snowy. 4-6” mean Monday then another several inches the following 10 day. As a 12-18” total mean for all of New England about the highest all year.

Snow begets snow.. still snowing. I did not see this at all. 1/2" now.

Bursts of heavy snow in these squalls

what im saying most of the cold we had was a waste

That snow event on May 9 showed the wasted potential of 1977. That could have been an all-time season if March and April didn't torch. As it stands, 1976-77 was a record cold fall and winter.

.

Nope. But I have a valid excuse. I was 3 months old.

This is all silliness and has no relevance to what actually occurs. Weather does what it does when it does. Doesn't give a fuck about weekend rules or whatever else.

Refreshments being served here.

A surprise 2.3 during the day brought total to 5.0

YES It’s so wild to me that I’m approaching 120” on the season with only two winter storm warnings.

's on board

It’s ironic how these bouts of upslope go essentially unforecasted but add up to what would have been a winter storm warning

We are so back.

Wait til that sun angle gets crankin

fat fluffy flakes with this band coming through

May 9 2020 we had on and off snow showers most of the day. Even NYC picked up a trace. I received almost an inch during one of the squalls with the green grass and cherry tree blossoms almost getting covered. 34° and heavy snow during the afternoon of May 9. I'd only seen that one other time up around here and that was the 1977 May 9 snow event. That was much worse than the 2020, or better depending on perspective. Personally I loved it.

Oh, I get it. I love the effort you put in to all of this and I’m sure it must get emotionally draining.

Don’t do it

Well, March did the trick just bc of the sun...pack rotted.