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Severe Storms mainly south of us Sunday - most of the flooding rains will occur south of us also--BUT still have to monitor that situation for changes as PWATS are high over 2 .

Yes, Reading and West Chester are stable in the 1929 to 1960 period and I am going to add Reading to my analyses. A couple of comments. As I said above looking at shorter time periods significantly expands the list of reference stations for individual station breaks as all stations are stable between the station breaks. Second, there is no need to restrict to short distances from Chester County. Weather station data is well correlated over hundreds of miles. An interesting first step would be to check how far good correlation with Chester County extends.

Lets look at the big picture. All four estimates you've listed agree that Phoenixville experienced spurious cooling in 1948. Better to recognize that Phoenixville had a cooling move vs ignoring the move and using the raw data. However things aren't as uncertain as the four numbers make it seem. First the BEST estimate is 1.58F on Mike's chart not 1.88F, closer to NCEI. Second If you look at Mike's charts there are many small differences between NCEI and Berkeley that cancel out over a longer time period. I don't see a big difference in the NCEI and Berkeley climate history of Chester County. Third, I wouldn't expect my estimates to be that accurate. I haven't taken the time to optimize my approach and more importantly there are many other stations besides West Chester and Coatesville that can be used to estimate the impact of Phoenixville's move. I say the NCEI method is bullet-proof because it has a strong scientific foundation. Science says that there is a strong correlation in year-to-year temperature changes over a wide area and that's exactly what I have found. This chart is an example. These stations are well correlated at the time of the Phoenixville move indicating that they all can be used to estimate the timing and impact of the Phoenixville move. Moreover, I have only scratched the surface, there are just the ones that had the time to check.

Understood, but seems LWX disagrees in their morning AFD? Or am I misreading? In addition to any heavy rain threat is the potential for bands of strong to severe thunderstorms. Increased flow down into the low levels would be favorable for organized line segments capable of mixing down damaging wind gusts in any organizing cold pools. The saturated profiles could result in water loading downdrafts, though the lack of mid-level dry air may keep DCAPE low putting a ceiling on just how high damaging wind gusts can get (most likely in the 50-65 mph range). The increased low- level flow and SRH coupled with moist profiles could lend to the threat of a few tornadoes as well. Although the prospect of early morning clouds and precip may at first glance seem to preclude a higher potential for heating and severe weather later in the day, the high low-level moisture content coupled with steady height falls aloft means that heating will not need to be as robust to result in sufficient CAPE for strong to severe convection, especially given the shear that will be present. Some severe weather or flood threat may persist into the night given the above listed factors.

Low of 63 with a beautiful day upon us before the rain comes tomorrow. Taking some friends out on the river today with the kids. Should be a swell time.

59 degrees this morning…Beautiful out.

When's the torch again? Hope I didn't miss it.

Did you happen to arrive to this stance on happen by happenstance?

55F fan-fantastic feeling outside

We can't get Oisst and Coral Reefs to agree on SST/SSTA's on current conditions NOW, and we're supposed to believe numbers from 100+ years ago? They're just salesmen.

56°/54° coolest start in a while. Fine looking day ahead.

There are things to like for Sunday for sure, but a morning MCS appears fairly likely, which would wreck afternoon chances, except perhaps for southern areas. Probably more of a heavy rain event for most of us, unless the MCS is fake or delayed.

It can go both ways. What we think could have been a monster Nino in 1789 might not have even been stronger than 2015-2016. That would make the current Nino even more impressive.

That hail was wicked in parts of Charlottesville. Sorry about your Jeep!

Yeah same. West River went from flooding to I could see the rocky bottom Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Possibly severe weather coming.