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I see what you mean on the euro AI. But just 12 hrs ago that was a fropa on that model.

Always the case. But looking at the large scale features and the agreement on them across important guidance at this stage…. It’s very low odds of a big snowstorm. My take.

I’m down to shaded areas only with snow cover; but hopefully about to load up in the next week to 10.

Yea, I was talking more "backyard" snow depth optics. I went from 8-10" down here to T (about 30% coverage). Most dropped down to 1-4" like you mentioned, and even though those remaining 1-4" were totally waterlogged with pretty high LE, that is still a big hit and pretty much starting over regardless of LE. (again just "backyard" base) Now, obviously a different story on the ski hills, where all it really did was add SWE to build the base moving forward--even if there was a little snow depth decrease.

Dont forget after those fails I chime in and state how much I loathe this hobby. Ji then cancels winter for the 22nd time, Weather53 says see I told you we are kicking the can again, mitch tells us he had a hunch January was toast, Terpeast says he has concerns for Feb being we are in a Nina but there is hope, Randy calls us nuts and tells Chuck to sybau, aldi22 says we are dumb, Maestrobjwa tells us hes learning new stuff every day, winter warlock replies to each post with 'lol' or 'lmao', then PSU posts a 3 page diatribe on how he hopes this isnt the new norm. Yeah, I think thats the usual pattern iirc.

I am not saying GEFS is right...hopefully we will be tracking a threat by the end of this weekend.

From a WPC met:

Yup! WB 6Z GEFS through Day 13 says it all:

Colder start to winter than recent years but not as cold as 17-18 was through January 8th. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY December 1st through January 8th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-08 34.1 0 2025-01-08 35.8 0 2024-01-08 40.7 0 2023-01-08 38.6 0 2022-01-08 40.3 0 2021-01-08 36.9 0 2020-01-08 37.3 0 2019-01-08 38.2 0 2018-01-08 30.3 0

More west/southern digging…trends I’m rooting for!

Pope, Also have to understand/take into consideration, what you’re seeing currently, may not be what actually may be happening 3-5 days from today.

Mild temperatures continue today with rain chances increasing this afternoon. A brief break in the rain tonight before we turn chillier with more rain tomorrow into Saturday night. Temperatures turn colder after Sunday with temperatures not too far from normal for mid-January before trending much colder by the end of next week into the weekend. We could see between 0.75” to 1” of rain tomorrow night. Winter weather opportunities start to ramp up by later next week.

Mild temperatures continue today with rain chances increasing this afternoon. A brief break in the rain tonight before we turn chillier with more rain tomorrow into Saturday night. Temperatures turn colder after Sunday with temperatures not too far from normal for mid-January before trending much colder by the end of next week into the weekend. We could see between 0.75” to 1” of rain tomorrow night. Winter weather opportunities start to ramp up by later next week.

I had Ole Miss +3 1/2 points and they lost by 4, so I'd like a little snow to help cope with that please.

Significant increase in high tide or sunny day flooding across the areas in Florida which have experienced the greatest sea level rise. https://southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/initiative/climate-indicators-high-tide-flooding/

Looking at 6z EC AIFS - I don’t like it…. The early mid level cut-off in northern stream is another red flag. You’re going to get much more shunting east with the coastal than meridional mid level ridge development can compensate for over the western Atlantic. Maybe a cape scrape? I’m focusing on the 18th…

For the record - I recognize this from past winters. Two waves - people get invested in one, then the other, then a why not both hope sets in. It looks promising for one, then the other, then magically, a shift to a middle compromise with a massive storm. Hopes surge. Then, it starts to look muddy. PSUHoff weighs in to say that with better spacing it would be two nice events, but that unfortunately the worry is that they are too close together and interfere with the development of each. That ends up being right and we get flurries on Friday and gray skies on Sunday and see reports from the Carolinas of getting smoked in the first event and the Poconos in the second event.

Does anyone know how to access ensemble H5 vort panels? Tomer Burg used to have that one Polarwx (I think), but can't find those particular panels any longer.

Hopefully I won’t need to chase somewhere else and can stay in Palmyra.

I think the 15th storm is legit

I took advantage of the nice evening sans howling wind, and took christmas lights down last night as well as brought another load of wood down. Pattern looks loaded later next week and beyond. Trough axis hurtin us as best qpf well off shore, but IF we can get better spacing and less progressive w/ the flow, it might give something a chance to spin up a nice miller A. Going to be a lot of sorting out in the next few days, but it's fun to look at no matter the result. The chase is a big part of the fun for me. TGIF boys n girls.

Pretty obvious to me anyway but what do I know. All I now is one look and it was tent material

Spectacular looks. Ice castle like

Lol by the time I get to the map its bedtime j/k

Not sure I agree. I think it’s in the process of tilting neg quickly. Did you loop it? I mean, I don’t doubt that it may end up a salad of interfering shit streaks, but I thought this run was ready to blow up.