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Well, well, well…if it isn’t the GFS up to its old tricks again. The 18Z GFS literally gives Tahiti on 5/13 a record low SLP due to a nearby tiny surface low that gets as low as 1002 mb, highly unusual for May as it’s ~12 mb/0.36” BN. This results in ~1004.5 mb Tahiti pressure on 5/13. How low is this vs May history back to 1992? Well, the record low is 1004.7 (5/10/2002, during another incoming Nino). Second lowest? 1006.1 (5/31/1997, another incoming El Niño). Other very low SLPs there in May were also during incoming El Niño periods: 1007.5 on 5/9/2015 and 1007.8 on 5/19/2009. Will the record low May Tahiti SLP verify? Very highly doubtful considering that only the 18Z GFS had it that low with a tiny low almost right on top of Tahiti whereas other models had no low: But other recent GFS runs have also had a tiny low nearby though not as close. The brand new 0Z has the low but it’s not as close nor as strong (1005 instead of 1002). So, its lowest 24 hour averaged Tahiti pressure is only down to 1009 mb (on 5/12). I thought it was a good idea to post this because this could cause a couple of very strong -SOIs 5/12-13. Even just down to 1009 at Tahiti like the 0Z GFS has would mean a -35ish 5/12 SOI with near avg Darwin SLPs. This reminds me to mention that while Tahiti SLPs have been BN to MBN for most of the last 30 days, there still have been no high pressures at Darwin, which have largely been NN. This is near the opposite of how April of 1997 went. It had 17 days of Darwin SLP of 1012+ vs only one day of that in April of 2026! There are few, if any, 1012+ in sight as of now other than possibly today, which may end up just above 1012.

Nice line with thunder and lightning just to my west. Fingers crossed that it holds together.

Flakes on some of the higher peaks? 1.08” today

Gambled on an early to mid-April tour and we lucked out with a couple of decent storms on relatively low-key/conditional days. It was guided by Trey Greenwood and Ethan Moriarty (YouTubers Convective Chronicles and June First, respectively), so it was a lot of fun getting to hang out and talk storms with those guys. However ironically the best was on my way home (I had actually cancelled my flight plans and shortened my time on the tour to drive out to OKC instead, which was the reason I was in my vehicle and able to chase this day, also ironic for someone from Wisconsin I had started the day in Wichita and marathonned 9 hours to see a tornado in Minnesota):

One last freeze tonight and hopefully that is it until fall. Already down to 38 here. Only under a frost advisory but we always get a few degrees colder here in the valley.

Lol with the 0.04" today.

Yeah it is... My normal precip is around 48.50" for the calendar year. In 2025 I had around 35" so there's 13 of that 25" deficit in twelve months.

I’ve had 6 on me and 2 embedded. Batting .333

The rash can take a while to develop and there’s no guarantee you’ll have the rash, even if you do have Lyme or some other shitty tick born illness. Yeah, they’re everywhere and I feel like I say that every spring now.

Things should start getting interesting around the 15th. Dare I say things might be rocking starting the 20th or so with a SW trough forming

We are overdue for something to trend in the right direction...

Exactly a quarter inch of rain here. Several days ago it looked like 1"+.

25" deficit in 21 months? That seems like alot.

Looks like a downpour may clip us

The rain broke about 10 mins before I had 600 people in suits walk about a quartwr mile. Thank you baby Jesus

Out of our sub but that’s an absolute beast of a tornado right now in Mississippi. Definitely EF3-EF4

Lucking into a bonus bit of rain here in Fallston at the moment.

.15 here. Steined.

Surprised by both these stats the NWS just put out.

.31 rain today.

Still plenty of time to reel monday in.

Somewhat cooler weather will conclude the week. Overall, the first 10 days of May will likely see temperatures average cooler than normal normal overall. Showers are possible Saturday night as a warm front moves across the region. Sunday will turn warmer with highs reaching the 70s. Additional rain and somewhat cooler conditions will return for Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -2.89 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.007 today.

I just finished the final season snowfall maps for the 25-26 season. The past few years i made a thread for all of the snowfall maps for the season, i had some extra storage space so i thought it would be good to do another one with the season total. Thank you to everyone who sent in a report. I tried to include most of them if i could fit them in and jived with the last update on March 2nd. There were no major events since March 2nd but a few minor accumulating systems (March 3-4th, March 5-6th and April 7th). I put out a few calls to send me your final season total but if i didn't hear from you i did my best to add these minor events to the Mar 2nd update or remove the report. The map didn't change too much from the Mar 2nd update except across the northern tier of the region. There are additional seasonal snowfall maps for the area including CT/SNE/Tri-State in the winter 25-26 page. There is also a progression animation image for the season. These are the main storms of the season that featured at least 1" of snowfall across CT, SNE or Tri-State. If you want to see every single event, and there are much more, they are in the winter 25-26 page under Southern New England (25 events). All of these systems below (except for one) are featured in the main archive with radar, surface and upper air maps. Winter 25-26 Season Snowfall Winter 25-26 Progression Winter 25-26 Statistics December 2nd 2025 December 10th 2025 December 14th 2025 December 23rd 2025 December 26-27th 2025 December 31st 2025-January 1st 2026 January 17th 2026 January 18-19th 2026 January 21-22nd 2026 January 25-26th 2026 February 6-7th 2026 February 22-23rd 2026 February 25th 2026

I just finished the final season snowfall maps for the 25-26 season. The past few years i made a thread for all of the snowfall maps for the season, i had some extra storage space so i thought it would be good to do another one with the season total. Thank you to everyone who sent in a report. I tried to include most of them if i could fit them in and jived with the last update on March 2nd. There were no major events since March 2nd but a few minor accumulating systems (March 3-4th, March 5-6th and April 7th). I put out a few calls to send me your final season total but if i didn't hear from you i did my best to add these minor events to the Mar 2nd update or remove the report. The map didn't change too much from the Mar 2nd update except across the northern tier of the region. There are additional seasonal snowfall maps for the area including CT/SNE/Tri-State in the winter 25-26 page. There is also a progression animation image for the season. These are the main storms of the season that featured at least 1" of snowfall across CT, SNE or Tri-State. If you want to see every single event they are in the winter 25-26 page under Tri-State Area (14 events). All of these systems below (except for one) are featured in the main archive with radar, surface and upper air maps. Winter 25-26 Season Snowfall Winter 25-26 Progression Winter 25-26 Statistics December 2nd 2025 December 10th 2025 December 14th 2025 December 23rd 2025 December 26-27th 2025 December 31st 2025-January 1st 2026 January 17th 2026 January 18-19th 2026 January 21-22nd 2026 January 25-26th 2026 February 6-7th 2026 February 22-23rd 2026 February 25th 2026