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  2. Scottie16
    Captured this on July 3rd in Sweetwater. .
  3. CAPE
    For those interested in actual science- https://www.climate.us/
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Nice let’s break the trend of one a done 100 heat waves. .
  5. SouthCoastMA
    It's been a steady rain from here up to the south shore in the past hour..starting to catch up a bit with earlier expectations
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't be resign yourself to a lost season-just accept that we likely aren't getting much sustained cold.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Basin-wide, similarly to this...1982-1983 was very east-based, and even that had some fierce winter mixed in. December was pretty snowy in my area and of course the Feb blizzard....something to keep in mind given it was the one very strong warm ENSO without a pronounced +WPO, and we seem to have seen a decadal shift in the north Pacific over the past couple of years.
  8. Maestrobjwa
    How was 2015-16 oriented?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    The warmth isn't relegated to the east, though. We could see a sequence like 2016 with some extreme intervals of winter weather mixed in...it just won't be sustained.
  10. Scottie16
    July the new April? East Tennessee will likely have a positive amount of rainfall for the month of July. John and myself have pretty good chances of seeing 6+ inches of rain over the next two weeks. Carver, Jeff. Isn’t this similar to 2017-2018? I wasn’t home in Tennessee often that year but I do recall (unless my memories bad) the whole month I was here in June that it rained every damn day. I don’t remember if we were in a drought that year or not. Also to get some chatter going in this quiet place, Is it factual to say we haven’t had a severe outbreak in the area in a long while? I understand that we have had a few F-O tornados and I’m not taking away from that however I feel as if we just have the occasional heavy thunderstorms now. .
  11. Maestrobjwa
    I'd take that...I mean Dec is an automatic punt in a Nino where I am (except 2009). But isn't east-based historically warm all the way through most of the time? (Again, maybe that's just my region) What would be different in the 1/15-3/15 period?
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe we can get a depression to form
  13. Damage In Tolland
    Why are the rainfall echoes on radar moving ENE over MA and NW in CT? Is it just low level flow ? Or is there some type of mid level circulation over CT?
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Just did mine and it’s thundering again now
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    PROBABLY...but you never know with that much moisture hanging around....I got creamed just before Xmas in 1997, and the same thing nearly happened in 2023...it was just some flukey nuances of the of the PV phase that sent it west.
  16. CAPE
  17. kdxken
    Better than the dimwits who called it over yesterday because the radar lightened up.
  18. CoastalWx
    Yeah, I think earlier on the worry was about those situations I talk about, you get the mesolow with a rotating 50+ DBZ, tropical air over an area and you’re gonna get 3 to 4 inches of rain per hour or more causing flash flooding. Some of the models were hinting at that. That seemed to be a little bit more to the south as we got to game time but couple days out that was a potential.
  19. TheClimateChanger
    Impressive heat at the Buffalo intake "crib" - water temperature up to 75F, tying the record for the date set in 2012, 2002 & 1966. The mean of 1927-2025 is 69F.
  20. mitchnick
    Yes, but the real chances, if they come, would likely be in the 1/15-3/15 period. Barring a miracle, December will likely disappoint if you're looking for snow outside of the higher elevations imho.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS is more full-fledged Modoki. CFS is more reasonable IMO given the magnitude if the warmth within the ENSO region.
  22. CAPE
    "Super" is hyperbolic. Just like monstrous, Ludicrous, or 'Godzilla' Nino. Social media silliness. Official categories for strength of Nina/Nino events are- weak, moderate, strong , and very strong.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, there is going to be some variability....it looks most like the east-based composite, but I agree that there will be some periods of dateline forcing. Heights are also extending back further west than the east-based composite in that forecast, which is a bit more difficult to dismiss than the northward displaced ridging, and denotes what you are referencing.
  24. LakePaste25
    It’s basically a lower % of modoki forcing, so the SE US is NN instead of blue in the seasonal mean.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
  26. Maestrobjwa
    And what would that result in, winter-wise?
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