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Below advisory level is way higher than 30%

Then feel free to ride it. I'm not saying the data is is inaccurate overall, but it HAS sucked on several singular storms over the past month.

I agree. Don't post it

Look at the Euro at 2100 Sunday. 100 east of Hatteras, then OTS. Look at the GGEM, Newborn to Norfolk while plastering west of 95. It doesn't often fail as I suggested earlier today. This is NOT the final solution but it is decent of the 12z Canadian.

So far this month, precipitation at CLE has been abysmal. Only .07" has fallen to date and forecast QPF/precip chances keep going down...down...down. Could be the driest Feb on record at CLE or easily the 2nd driest.

So far this month, precipitation at CLE has been abysmal. Only .07" has fallen to date and forecast QPF/precip chances keep going down...down...down. Could be the driest Feb on record at CLE or easily the 2nd driest.

I kind of don't mind them in May. Anything to delay the heat.

The Euro is THAT good. Always shows no storm this year and it's been right! LOL

? we went from a mean of nearly 4" regionwide to this

The 12z Euro has a slider around 300. Granted, it's 300 but it sure seems like modeling is picking up on a bit more colder air than it had last week. As for the upcoming system....Sometimes, E TN can get into the gig. The 12z Euro is weak and barely a storm. The UKMET is well inland. I tend to think the solution is probably in the middle. Trends will have to be watched over the next few runs.

Not what CoastalWx likes to see!! What trends should we look for that may make CoastalWx feel a bit better about snow prospects at CoastalWx's house!?

#2 is off the table imo but it’s definitely not a 33% probability. Maybe 5% if we’re feeling lucky. #1 and #3 is pretty much a coin flip.

This is not factual it’s just vibe based

doesn't make any sense that the EURO would stay more or less steady BUT the other models all reacted differently from yesterdays runs to the new data fed into them at 12Z

this really manifested fantasy range on the euro

So from 0-10” once again which will score a confirmation. The hope for AI is that there is some historical analog data in it of set ups and outcomes. Pretending it’s all math and physics is why we have all this erratic behavior. Low pressure systems around mid Atlantic in winter are just too difficult for conventional models. AI and outcome analog data is the proof in the pudding and hope for the future

Nice PHL-NYC snow hole.

Not really for here, but yes for NJ

Wont take much for most of us to get to normal. A 4-6" event should do it Temp 34 & cloudy w/ some dense fog above 1000'

Hopefully nothing will EVER rival March 5, 2001. And it was such a looong run pull too. Starting Friday night, they slowly started scaling back accumulations all weekend long until Monday morning when I went to work under cloudy skies.

Not according to the data

Dont bother. Nobody wants to see a map that went the wrong way

Euro is a trash model

Some models are saying a little snow for Denver metro coming up, especially southern portions.

The model watching the past few days are like playing whack-a- mole. Another model run another solution. For the most part the 12z suite was encouraging but it feels tenuous at best with the Euro and EPS not on board. One would think in the next 24-36 hrs the fate with this storm will become much clearer.