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The cold rain will tear down the grid in Braintreesurgeon

Someone at the NWS must be trolling now... or just plain dumbass

I am staying retired for now, but I reserve the right to return like prime MJ if things start to get ugly. I’m watching you. All of you.

I’m ok with not losing power. If I do I have to drive 45 miles out of my way instead of working from home

We foot!

You have no idea how happy I am. I was totally miserable the past four months at that other company since I left.

If December ends up a solid -PNA/RNA month, then there is good evidence you provided for a +PNA January. And if it really does happen then kudos to Ray on his December forecast

EPS says, "What Dec 5-6 event?"

NAM clown gives me a foot (less than earlier runs) but I toss that

It’s pretty clear someone is definitely losing power and probably for a few days at least. Heavy wet snow and then temps drop into the upper 20s, perfect recipe. I guess if it’s more like 5 to 8 it wouldn’t be as bad, but any more than that could have issues for sure.

Dendy FTW

hello there, I don't think they do, not one model shows a flake for NYC! At least not that I seen, maybe i'm wrong!

NAMS both moving NW with the snow which is not a surprise in this setup

Back end snow rarely works out. Don't hang your hat on that.

I hope I have the correct sun angle for my rain tomorrow

Nam is a crush job in SNH.

I also want to point out an aspect ( that I'm sure no one will acknowledge haha). I'm noticing this is trying to be weaker as it gets closer in the guidance. This is an aspect that I have been advertising ... because it is a coherent bias in all guidance, really. Regardless of Euro this and Ukmet that, and JMA to NAVGEM and back... as I've mentioned all but ad nauseam in the past, there's something like a variable % in reduction of systemic prominence at go times. It's unclear why exactly, but ignore at own peril. I'm honing in a testable assumption. Anyway, it's variable, but more times than not there's some loss coming down the stretch with these things. Perhaps this will be one of the lower % gypping (ha!), and if the NAM is correct with its oversensitivity to cyclogenesis/strength then so be it.

I don’t expect it to trend down. It’s not all WAA snow with a bunch of dry air in front of it like Saturday night was.

A little Kraft ending. The short wave was stronger, and also look how the low has like an appendage sticking up towards off Block Island. That’s gonna help allow east and southeast flow to kind of overspread the area versus having a nice intensifying concentric low that would help cut the warming off a loft as you mentioned earlier.

I thought I was safe in Maine but being close to the coast is gonna kill me.

..at least some people may be able to fiil their tubs with free water lol...

Looks like those NAM runs from like 4 or 5 cycles ago. Not the ones that brought mixing to dendrite ,but maybe those runs just after that where it was still bring it to the NH border pretty easily.

I've ignored the NAM every single cycle.

It would be hilarious and absolutely fitting if SNE in it’s entirety ended up cold rain.