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36f. Wet flakes. Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Taking the under seems prudent, definitely surprised how hard LOT is hitting this

I mean @PhiEaglesfan712 has a point with that 2010 Niña being much stronger. That aside, back in 2010 when HM was still active on here, he perfectly called the massive -NAO/-AO blocking more than a month before it even happened. He blamed it directly on the solar minimum with very low geomag that was in place, he said the blocking and stratospheric/tropospheric coupling would not have developed without it…..

From Paul Roundy, this shows - NAO and Greenland blocking might be a frequent player during the upcoming winter.

Currently at 48° in Wolf with clouds moving in. The front is on our door step, so I think that will probably be my high for the day. Just upstream of us, KMRX thinks the advisories may need to be upgraded/expanded later today. KGSP has me receiving 2-3". I believe they're just being conservative as usual. I guess we'll see. 099 FXUS64 KMRX 091154 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 654 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 Wintry precipitation is going to be a concern in higher elevation areas and an initial Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory have been hoisted up to account for this. It`s highly likely that some adjustments or outright expansion of snowfall totals, areal coverage of these headlines, or both, will be needed on the day shift today. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Too many candles at the altar?

At least a mix

I’m tossing 95 but not 10.

Latest ECMWF update regarding the 45 day 60 degree N Zonal Mean 10mb Wind Forecast. Of note, the ensemble average in this update is slighter higher than the previous ensemble forecast, however, still bullish for a weak PV.

Looks like it’s snowing in Center Harbor

Low of 47 with no rain yet. I thought I posted yesterday morning but don’t see where it went through. Anyway, I got .11” of rain friday night. Chilly days ahead.

Latest EPS extended MJO. I read 7 is good in December.

Lake effect is so wild. One place can get 2 feet then a few miles away basically nothing. Don’t envy these meteorologists trying to warn a major city.

The warmth continues.

80deg here yesterday. (which was, wonderful, by the way:) Shock for the soul incoming.....

10H:06M of daylight and will lose around 50mins more till Dec 21 solstice. Still losing between 2 and 1 .2 mins more each day this month.

Records: Highs: EWR: 77 (2020) NYC: 75 (2020) LGA: 78 (2020) JFK: 74 (2020) Lows: EWR: 23 (1976) NYC: 24 (1976) LGA: 27 (1971) JFK: 25 (2019) Historical: 1864: On Election Night, a violent tornado strikes a ferry on the Mississippi River near Chester, Illinois, blowing away all but the hull. The boiler and engines are found up the bluff. Half of Chester was destroyed, and twenty died during the storm. 1893: Tropical storm from Gulf dissipated off MD 2.39 inches at Washington, DC. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1913 - The freshwater fury , a rapidly deepening cyclone, caused unpredicted gales on the Great Lakes. Eight large ore carriers on Lake Erie sank drowning 270 sailors. Cleveland OH reported 17.4 inches of snow in 24 hours, and a total of 22.2 inches, both all-time records for that location. During the storm, winds at Cleveland averaged 50 mph, with gusts to 79 mph. The storm produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Buffalo NY, and buried Pickens WV under three feet of snow. (9th-11th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1926 - A tornado in Charles County of southern Maryland killed seventeen persons. (The Weather Channel) 1926: An estimated F3 to F4 tornado tore through La Plata, Maryland, killing 14 individuals at a small school. This storm caused 17 deaths and injured 65 others. 1972: Boston, Massachusetts on the 8th and 9th had storm surge tides, coastal damage, wind damage and inland flooding. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1977: A major blizzard struck the eastern two-thirds of South Dakota, western Minnesota, and northwest Iowa through the 10th. A strong area of low pressure moved from northeast Colorado across north central Iowa bringing a variety of problems to the region. On the 8th, the storm began as rain with temperatures in the 50's in most areas. The tri-state area was then coated with freezing rain and sleet before the precipitation changed to snow. Up to 6 inches of snow fell in northwest Iowa with wind gusts up to 65 mph making travel impossible. Amounts were generally 4 to 12 inches across eastern South Dakota with gusts to 70 mph. Portions of western Minnesota were the hardest hit with snow amounts up to 14 inches and winds howling up to 80 mph. Drifts piled up to 8 feet deep across portions of Minnesota. Hundreds of cars were stranded across the area as the snow piled up. Two of the stranded vehicles were trucks transporting turkeys. As the temperatures plunged about half of the turkeys were prematurely frozen. The winds also blew down trees, power lines, and several radio towers. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) 1982 - Seven tornadoes touched down in southern California, three of which began as waterspouts. The waterspouts moved ashore at Point Mugu, Malibu, and Long Beach. The Long Beach tornado traveled inland ten miles causing much damage. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Showers and gusty winds associated with a cold front helped extinguish forest fires in the Appalachian Region and clear out smoke in the eastern U.S. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains from eastern Texas to the Tennessee Valley. Longview TX received 3.12 inches of rain, including two inches in two hours, Tupelo MS was soaked with 2.80 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a strong cold front produced severe weather from eastern Oklahoma to central Indiana. Hail more than two inches in diameter was reported around Tulsa OK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - High winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies from the afternoon of the 8th into the early morning hours of the 9th. Winds of 50 to 80 mph prevailed across the northwest chinook area of Wyoming, with gusts to 100 mph. Winds in Colorado gusted to 97 mph at Fritz Peak (located near Rollinsville) the evening of the 8th, and early in the morning on the 9th, gusted to 78 mph west of Fort Collins. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: Canadian high pressure over the Great Lakes was responsible for record lows from Texas to the Ohio Valley and Gulf Coast including: Peoria, IL: 9°, Springfield, IL: 9°, Toledo, OH: 12°, Lansing, MI: 12°, Chicago, IL: 14°, Paducah, KY: 14°, Des Moines, IA: 15°, Fort Wayne, IN: 15°, St. Louis, MO: 16°, Indianapolis, IN: 17, Lexington, KY: 17, Detroit, MI: 18, Akron, OH: 18°, Columbus, OH: 18°, Cincinnati, OH: 19°, Youngstown, OH: 19°-Tied, Little Rock, AR: 20°, Jackson, KY: 20°, Louisville, KY: 20°, Memphis, TN: 20°, Kansas City, MO: 23°, Baton Rouge, LA: 26°, Houston, TX: 29°, San Antonio, TX: 29°, Mobile, AL: 30°, New Orleans, LA: 32°. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) 1996 - The Veteran's Day storm of November 9-14, 1996 may be the most severe early season lake effect snow (LES) storm the Great Lakes has witnessed in the past fifty years. At the height of the storm, over 160,000 customers were without power in Greater Cleveland alone, as the storm produced isolated snowfall tallies approaching 70 . As usual with these LES events, the Veteran's Day storm battered snowbelt communities downwind of each of the Great Lakes while nearby towns went unscathed. (University of Illimois WW2010) 1998: Iowa and Minnesota on the 9th & 10th: Extremely strong storm system moves across the Great Plains. Minnesota 28.43 inches mercury and Iowa 28.54 inches mercury. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1999: More record warmth across the Midwest. For the third day in a row, un-November like weather treated residents of the Midwest. Some of the record highs included Green Bay WI with 74 degrees and Marquette MI with 73. The Marquette high was also a record for November. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2002: Laden with tropical moisture, an early season winter storm brought gusty winds and snow to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada in California and heavy rains to the lower elevations. At Chagoopa Plateau, a storm total of 80 inches of snow was recorded. Up to the 10 inches of rain fell in the foothills, with the town of Johnsondale receiving 16.38 inches of rain in just three days beginning on the 7th through the 10th. Numerous roads were closed due to flooding and mudslides with many residents losing power. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

Without help from the Pac you can have weeks and weeks of a - NAO and nothing will come from it in terms of snowfall for our area. As we know, depending on the pattern out West and in Canada some -NAO blocks don't work out for us, and some do not even produce a pattern that leads to a cold enough airmass for snow, it is all dependent on the pattern upstream. I do believe the MJO slows, evens stalls for a bit, but we will get to the favorable phases in December and January.

50 / 49 partly- mostl cloudy. Some light showers and clouds sticking around on/off the next day / day + half as the trough figs in. Cold sinking into the upper Midwest and pushes south and east Mon - Thu. Coldest is Mon nigh - Wed AM. Widespread freezes another for those who have had a freeze and first for the rest - most, if not all. Beyond there moderation by the 14th to normal / slight above into the and beyond mid month. Do thinks it by means of back and forth slightly favoring slightly warmer.

Fair point. The IOD and Nina are going to favor phases 5-6.

OT: My flashdrive that contained the ENSO data became unreadable today. Fortunately, I have a backup that is reasonably up-to-date. Pre-device failure might have led to a corruption of the data e.g., the wrong ENSO values for some of the cases referenced previously in this discussion. In the meantime, it looks like Savannah could see its earliest first freeze since 2010.

I'm not confident on the MJO getting thru phases 7-8-1-2 as he mentions at the end of his post. Failure to get thu them would be a negative for us. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

33.6F Light rain mixed with mangled flakes. No sleet just rain and a few parachutes.

57 and full sun here. Some 60's out on Long Island and around NYC.