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Just because I've been tracking it, 00z Euro is 64F for DCA 2-19, and 66F 2-20. 0z eps peaks 62F on 2-19.

One more move at 12z like the 6Z NAM and

Radar https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/mar-4-6-2001

The 0z AI EPS also shows snow on both the mean & median.

The 0z Euro AI shows some snow by Monday am.

I mean it's an AFD in 2001, saying it on TV to tens of thousands of people is a very different thing. And the next AFD you can hear the disappointment and fear in drags words. Forecasts didn't change all that much but did go down a notch

No, you did.. .

Wait is this is a logbook fail incoming? Now see I thought this weekend was rain because the storm got here too late and the cold air had already escaped (and that if it were 12-24 hours sooner it would've been snowier) But you're saying this woulda worked before... Man I still don't get how the switch just flipped so quickly like that. This kind of setup work between 2010 & 2015? I hope this is a PDO issue and not the other.

There is some phasing going on. Keep track or dont post.

Snowy week on the euro. LFG.

Sometimes there are surprises and models are trying to play catchup and never get it right especially in the beginning of a complex pattern change - it has happened before....In addition i don't think the models are receiving all the data they should on a consistent basis these days because of reduced funding. How NOAA funding cuts could make it harder to predict and prepare for severe weather | PBS News

Snow storm is when Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are issued and they verify - no one said this is going to be a "snowstorm" as of now - don't need phasing to create a moderate advisory type snowfall or even a moderate snowstorm.

There was 14.5 inches here on March 2nd, 1942. We ended up with almost 80 inches here in the winter of 1959-60. 3 inches in December after a very warm month with the snow falling Dec 30th and 31st, 10 inches in January, 25 in February and 39 in March.

1500 slopeside. Convective city tsnow for an hour animated.mov

You missed the point Dexter.

Its very close to a bigger solution with a cleaner phase.

It depends on what you decide a "snowstorm" is. Will it be the early 2000s storms? No, but it could very well be better than 95% of what we've gotten the past several years

50s is normal in March. That won’t be a cold pattern but there is enough decent in other areas we could get a wave to track under us if it times up with a transient 50/50 feature. You only seem to pay attention to the pacific and ignore other factors. But we’re getting that this weekend and its rain so maybe we can’t snow anymore in hostile pac regimes and the last 10 years is just what is normal now.

Our most recent system was one of those classic setups when an Alberta Clipper interacts with the Northern Greens and turns into a 12”+ event. I didn’t have time to get out for turns yesterday, so I headed up to the mountain this morning for a ski session. The Wilderness Lift has been closed for the past couple of days per its usual weekly schedule, so I toured via the Wilderness Uphill Route this morning ahead of its Friday opening. As I mentioned in my Wednesday report, the first half foot of snow from this system came in fairly dense, with snow in the 9-10% H2O range, but the next half foot or so was in the 4-6% H2O range, and then then the final rounds of snow that came through yesterday finished off in the 2-3% H2O range. So all told, the storm cycle played out beautifully by delivering an excellent gradient of right-side-up powder. And indeed the powder skiing today was as one might expect with those numbers – fantastic and bottomless unless you were on terrain that had been groomed during the storm. And even then, you were touching a subsurface that is of very high quality due to the rounds and rounds of snow we’ve received in the past few weeks. I last did powder depth checks during my Saturday outing on the Bolton Valley Nordic & Backcountry Network and was typically finding powder in the 20 to 30-inch range above the subsurface. We’re getting to the point now that it’s getting hard to put numbers to it – the overall powder stack is getting deep enough that it’s crushing and settling the lower levels of powder into denser snow beneath it, and it’s getting hard to assess where the actual subsurface sits. Oh well, that’s a great place to be in midwinter, so let’s just say that the powder out there in off piste areas that haven’t been touched is 20-30”+, and it’s got a beautiful density gradient in it that has set up naturally over time. On a related note, I see that the snowpack depth has now jumped back up above 80” according to the Mansfield Stake. So right now in the Northern Greens, the powder is deep, the overall snowpack is deep, the forecast calls for seasonable temperatures, and the modeling has 2 to 3 smaller systems with snow over the next few days. My recommendation is to get out there and enjoy it.

The good news, is that it snows outside of the rectangles. It's not gonna happen anyway because this thread was unlocked.

yup that’s a rainstorm on Feb 15th!