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I wonder why the 18z and 6z gfs always only show a favorable for cold pattern way out in lala land but 12z 0z usually don't. I know the off runs are partially initialized compared to the 12z 0z. Still intrigued in the less negative pdo

Weatherbell is more generous - 3” down to DC. Really juiced up.

Frosty Boners sounds like a fantastic Christmas album. .

0z hrrr

yes. get your cameras ready. it may be the only snow of the season; if you celebrate holidays and have decorations, it is a rare chance to get great seasonal photos; make a card.

Long range HRRR starting to look like other guidance now at 00z, it’s been the most paltry.

Just saw these

Weed tonight now?

What time did it hit? Explains all the snow in Kearny.

Latest Sref mean...it's creeping north.

Wait I missed this. Snow tomorrow too now?

I think the NWS tends to lean NBM - latest run has Morgantown with a 44% chance of 8" or more. 76% chance of 6" or more. Pretty decent odds. I'm sure the typical places with orographic lift will jackpot. AGC has a 46% chance of 6" or more for the same run. Almost a coin flip. Blend mean is 4.1" total but it seems to favor an amount between 4-7" for AGC. That's definitely bullish, as even the unreliable but typically juiced SREF mean is lower, but I'm not sure what ratio that plot measures.

In this pattern we take this and run. It’s still overall hostile for any kind of significant snow.

All dreaming aside, we will warm up this week, but the pattern reshuffle will keep Canada cold. The core of the warm up will be in the Midwest & South. The northeast should still be able to occasionally tap into some of the available Canadian cold. With well timed Highs nosing in from eastern Canada, we could still have Winter weather chances once we head into Christmas week.

<<< LOWEST DECEMBER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES >>> Rank __ Year __ Temp _ 01 ____ 1917 __ 47 (1st) _t02 ____ 1872 __ 49 (15th), 1876 _ 49 (13th), 1880 _ 49 (5th), 1890 _ 49 (3rd), 1926 _ 49 (14th) _t07 ____ 1874 __ 51 (3rd), 1882 _ 51 (6th), 1904 _ 51 (28th) _t10 ____ 1909 __ 53 (6,13,14), 1944 _ 53 (8th), 1955 _ 53 (3rd), 1989 _ 53 (31st) (was 2nd lowest 48 before that) _t14 ____ 1903 __ 54 (13th), 1910 _ 54 (30th), 1945 _ 54 (8th), 1997 _ 54 (16th) _t18 ____ 1871 __ 55 (23rd), 1883 _ 55 (8th), 1886 _ 55 (24th), 1888 _ 55 (17th), 1902 _ 55 (22nd) ___ ___ t18 __ 1933 _ 55 (25th), 1958 _ 55 (5th), 1963 _ 55 (8th), 1976 _ 55 (7th), 1985 _ 55 (2nd, 24th), ___ ___ t18 __ 1995 _ 55 (3rd), 2005 _ 55 (24th) _t30 ____ 1907 __ 56 (10th), 1929 _ 56 (14,15,19), 1935 _ 56 (9th), 1974 _ 56 (8th), 1977 _ 56 (14th) _t35 ____ 1870 __ 57 (4th), 1894 _ 55 (12th), 1896 _ 57 (13th), 1898 _ 57 (30th), 1907 _ 57 (23rd), ___ ___ t35 _ 1915 _ 57 (18th), 1922 _ 57 (1st), 1943 _ 57 (9th), 1959 _ 57 (13th) _t44 ____ 1887 __ 58 (11th), 1892 _ 58 (8th), 1913 _ 58 (3rd), 1920 _ 58 (14th) ___ ___ _t44 _ 1925 _ 58 (5th, 6th), 1930 _ 58 (1st), 1942 _ 58 (2nd), 1947 _ 58 (3rd), 1948 _ 58 (13th), ___ ___ _t44 _ 1961 _ 58 (5th), 1981 _ 58 (2nd), 2003 _ 58 (13th), 2019 _ 58 (10th) _t57 ____ 1877 __ 59 (20th), 1884 __ 59 (31st), 1893 __ 59 (16th), 1899 _ 59 (11th,12th), 1900 _ 59 (24th), ___ ___ t57 _ 1905 _ 59 (3rd), 1906 _ 59 (31st), 1921 _ 59 (1st)1952 _ 59 (11th), 1957 _ 59 (20th), ___ ___ t57 _ 1972 _ 59 (31st), 1983 _ 59 (12th, 13th), 1986 _ 59 (3rd), 2004 _ 59 (8th, 23rd) ================================================ Up to 1910, it was normal for December to fail to break 59 F, it happened in 30 of 42 years (71%). From 1911 to 1960 it happened 23 more times (46%). From 1961 to 2000 it happened 13 more times (33%). From 2001 to 2024 it happened 4 more times (17%). (2003,04,05,19) Overall it has happened 70 times (45%). The interval 2006 to 2018 (13 Decembers) is the longest interval without a sub-60 maximum value. Before that, the longest such interval was ten years (1964 to 1973) and before that six years (1936 to 1941). The average value for all years is 60.3 F. Since 1961 the average is 62.2 F. Since 1990 it is 62.9 F.

Never mind. I scrolled back and saw them. Thing is, neither of those two are even geographically in our sub forum.

I think I may have seen a like singular flake but I may have hallucinated it. This is what happens when I don't start the thread

Meanwhile, the 18z GFS allows us to dream a little dream by showing a snow chance on Christmas Day! My dream has always been to watch the kids open their presents enjoy a nice holiday feast & then let it snow in the late afternoon through Christmas night. The GFS just showed exactly that scenario… which I will enjoy for a few hours, lol.

Geez, I miss so much driving my truck. Must be a lot of post deletions. What all happened?

it was cold again around Valentine's Day (DCA got down into the low teens, highs in the 20s).

I remember the only cold week that entire winter was the week leading up to the big storm. The day after the storm was the last cold day that winter. The week after the storm was in the 60's and it didn't really get cold again.

Interesting graphic by the NWS. Seems like its all gonna depend on the banding.

Latest from LWX:

that was a weird winter, but still good IMO. For NYC - biggest snowstorm in history plus the last time Central Park got below zero. Still warm, yes, but those events save it IMO.

Eskimo Joe is a sick human being lol