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So what would your “we’re in the clear” point be when it comes to model runs not showing that?

The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated.

how many years has it been since rome was sacked? some things cannot be let go.....

I think the 18z GFS will have even less NS interaction with our SW (aka more "suppressed")

ICON north at 18z. RRFS north at 18z

I am VERY sorry

GFS looks 50 miles north as the crow flies. .

Seems a bit north so far but the ridge is stronger to the East so that may help suppress as the system moves East

Not sure I love the Ridge being more stout at 54 and continuing that theme here.

I was in a class whats up. I will also be in another class for the next 50 minutes but then the synoptic analysis three will be worked on.

Yep need it later

It is turning into a Miller B transferring the energy a little later in WV instead of TN on some models. Typical model waffling as they always do especially since models have been very consistent up to this point with the storm. Yesterday there was suppression concerns now it is “it’s going to far north to transfer to the coast for all snow” concerns. It happens either way this is the storm we will be talking about for quite some time IMO.

It's not. We all get it around the same time. Chime in

Oh, it's gonna phase and interact...we're just trying to figure out how much

Just looked at the NWS forecast for Asheville and saw this: Saturday Night Snow and freezing rain before 8pm, then freezing rain between 8pm and 4am, then freezing rain and sleet after 4am. Low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Freezing rain before 1pm Then add wind. This is starting to remind me of Helene. What is the worst case scenario; mother nature says lets do it. Still hard to believe it would be that cold and not be sleet.

The ICON goes way west, with the Gulf low coming up through the east central, almost like an apps runner, and then it pops out off the Jersey coast. 18z GFS is running so will see what that shows. This is why I hate this time frame!

The GFS.... ...is Randy's show. But it looks OK so far.

Pressures little higher over us as well.

7. Typical model waffling/wobbling/cha cha cha.

AIGFS with a bump north. Will check temps when available.

If anything, GFS seems a little less "connected" out west and s/w just a smidge further SW, but not by much

I remember it well. 2 days off school for an inch of slop.

Can we give the GFS a . It is interesting considering it's not a model showing the highest amount of snow from this coming weekends storm

Gfs is quicker then the euro at 12z

Is it tradition to discuss March 2001 every time there's a winter storm in our backyard? It's almost 25 years. Models have improved a lot since then. Can we let it die?