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Kuchie gets Baltimore to a foot. Would be a dream. But probably a couple inches too many. Knock off 2 and I still abscond with that a million percent of the time.

not just that storm... 40 years of watching these overruning events...thump to sleet to snizzle...the end part usually dry slots and we get less qpf than forecast the rgem is what I think will happen for me at least

WARNED

NAM also holds ground temps colder for longer but less snow.

This 12z HRRR looks extremely concerning with heavy FZRA for most of the state. That gonna be a major disaster for power grid! But the good thing is 12 NAM seems not buying into that. Personally I feel NAM is normally more reliable for set up like this. Hope that holds true this time.

What a crazy map. On the bright side, ice looks like less of an issue for many further south.

Everything seems to be holding serve.

TRI gets hammered by the 12k NAM. There are considerable differences between the 12k and 3k regarding Chattanooga and TRI. I simply refer to you all who live in those places to know your microclimates. @nrgjeff- maybe he will stop in this afternoon. No doubt he is busy!

If somehow the GFS pulls out a win on this storm, that will become a very intriguing window given how adamant it is about it. If not, then I kinda have to just toss the GFS lol. But as for this, as psu said above... we need one more nudge to the GFS to really be talking about it pulling off that upset. That last change seems hard to find. ICON didn't really seem to buy it. Not that I trust the ICON that much, but we're at the range where if the GFS was right, you don't have a lot of time for everything to get on board. Even minor models. Still, I am very intrigued by the changes we're seeing so far today.

I want the deform sleet. Quicker coastal transfer (not that it will help you and me).

Northern border of Mass. Although it is much less salient west of the Connecticut.

Keg stands at the altar with the blood of Christ…

the overall system looks se to me but we get a weird dry spot

Nope

You definitely cooked Rainforrest.

And sleet is so much harder to melt than snow. It can stick around for weeks in the shade

The GFS is calling for 2ft snow depth from southern VA through New England by the end of next weekend......thats incredible

ETX icing threat is looking real now with an R. I feel that an Ice Storm watch/warning is easily warranted now (rather than a Winter wx one in this region), as the incoming SS mid-level trough out west is trending more intense and diving abnormally further south into MX than I had suspected. Even on NAM, the H5 trough axis taking on at least a neutral (N-S) tilt. Which will definitely strengthen the mostly south flow WAA regime over ETX ahead of it (possibly up to 60 knots), in the 850Mb - 700Mb layer. Which is most critical for precip type. Even in STX, would not rule out at least a few elevated supercell storms with so much incoming dynamics aloft Saturday night (behind the surface front). But even in ETX, thunder ice/sleet is looking very likely now at least in a scattered variety.

19” gets me over 50” ytd. Would put this winter in a category of its own with 2 months to go

Bit of a culture shock for me man. 6-10 of snow and sleet Sunday AM would have an outside shot of getting us out of Monday.

Yeah it's good. Significantly thumpy-er... general 5-6" OTG before 7am is what we need. Snows after that too if you buy it.

like December 26 ?

Handing out bottles of wine like Halloween candy

Just noticed something on Pivotal that you don't see every day... 10:1 12z 12k NAM: vs Snow Depth 12z 12k NAM: How often does the snow depth map look more impressive than the 10:1 snowfall map? I'm guessing the depth includes sleet but 10:1 does not?