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RGEM is being stubborn

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Reggie still meager relatively speaking.

Ahh, got it. Well, sorry friend. Hope you enjoy what you do get to witness.

Looks like our exact area is where the deathband in Northeastish NJ sets up

For whatever reason the RGEM has been stubborn with this storm. I think it’s suffering from convective feedback.

Aircraft recon scheduled for today for ingestion into the 00Z model suite

The 3k nam is still 2 feet in some places

And how about this? Look at the DY2 SPC tstm outlook. How often do you see such a large area of general tstms outlooked on the COLD side coastal storm, never mind a full-fledged blizzard???? I can't recall such a large general tstm area for a KU! But if anyone knows something similar, please post!

Updated with RGEM

i think that the high end #'s west of baltimore maybe dropped but it is in increase for baltimore/annapolis and points east. Bel Air was 18 or 19 earlier and is now 24

Can someone enlighten me quickly on what the darker orange spots are here ? Its stronger bands correct ?

If you're near or within ~50km to the left/west of the developing 700mb front, BL and ground temps are just not going to be an issue. 2"/hr doesn't care.

One thing to keep in mind overall though. There have been a number of coastal storms since the Bliz of 78 w/ high-low pressure differences greater, and they were *not* anything like the Bliz of 78 for total snowfall or max wind gusts, so pressure difference alone does not tell the entire story. Still though, this will be a high-end event and I would not be surprised to see gusts 80-90 mph on the coast from the Delmarva to BOS.

Good thing that model sucks

2/21 18z RGEM Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 V Snow 10:1

Yeah, then 2002-03, 2003-04, and 2004-05 soon followed, and left 00-01 in the dust. If that 3/5/2001 storm even verified halfway, 00-01 would have been remembered in that great series of winters in the first half of the 2000s (with the exception of the obvious dud in 2001-02).

lol I was just making a post when I saw the notification from this one Didn't deviate from the NWS much with my forecast... just some tweaks here and there. Won't bother going through the caveats because y'all know them, mainly the marginal surface temps and the lack of good rates inland.

Legendary move by a legendary OG poster for what looks to be a legendary storm. A few key synoptic variables in flux to determine place in history is timing of maturation... yesterday trended later / better for SNE vs. today trended a bit earlier / better for Philly/NYC/LI... could be in flux through Sunday. And obviously track... today maybe trended better tucking more NW on mesos. 19z NBM output... along with the winds, this is shaping up to be historic:

RGEM still sucks

Still loving the location of the IVT maxima

Possibly by 6pm Sunday and definitely by 9pm DC will be in a 29-32 degree temp range and that’s not mashed potatoes.

Rgem jackpots 95 and eastern LI

Dig dog