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I am liking the look of the 12z HRRR compared to the overnight runs based on the first 15 hours, perhaps an improvement incoming.

Mid-month is very interesting. As tip alluded to yesterday, that 500mb features lots of shortwaves digging and amplifying slightly south of Long Island...you keep feeding a constant supply of shortwaves and something is bound to give. I will say though and I know this leads to debate, but I would feel MUCH better if we had some southern stream involvement. If there was some southern stream feeding energy we could probably say the odds are almost certain something would happen.

I saw that especially on gfs, but euro is a sheared out mess. I guess give it a day or so.

The thread tah talk about anything non weathah and naw’eastah related

Don't sleep on 12/8 yet? Long shot, but vort has trended a bit sharper/further south over New England on 6z GFS/Euro.. Remains progressive but maybe some can score an inch or two.

At this point, I hope the MJO goes into the maritimes and I can at least curb seasonal depression with fishing

Low 24 here

The Delmarva keeps raking.

Yup. 1955 to 1969 and 2000 through 2018 skewed perspective.

1,000% Also I remember a LOT of warm winter months in the 80s. Some posters make it sound like the 80s were an arctic tundra. The 70s were very cold. Just not much snow.

LOL high on top of NYC

Low of 23.5

Low was 22.4 around 4 am. Currently 24.7/22.8 at 8 am.

Just gimme a dusting. Something small is ok. A snow that will make my leaves look like Xmas cookies with powdered sugar on them.

The 80s were considered worse than the 90s depending on point of view. The 90s had more above average snowfall winters (2) compared to the 80s (1), however, the 90s were warmer. The 1970s were cold but only 2 above average snowfall winters (one was just 2 inches above average). Please be cautious when listening to posters writing in definitives. The posters that just give the current facts statistics and seasonal opinions are the most reliable IMO. There was a reason people always worried about the return of the 1980s (cold dry, warm wet) pattern during the good stretch. Now we are in it.

We need something to push here... and we just dont have it.

I don't expect even that much here. Even some snow falling would surprise me at this point.

GSP 717am Updates

Probably, but you never know. Those types of things are dictated more by nuances within any framework. One ingredient of a good storm though is a good baroclinic zone. Which we don't have if everything is warm. I like seeing the cold and then we'll see what happens.

Hopefully it's not late in the 4th quarter around the 2 minute warning that ole man winter decides to throw a hail-mary.

Need the ridge in the west to get stronger.

-5 this morning here. First subzero of the season.

6z EUROs were slightly improved. Not calling this one until it’s Friday morning and the precip is stuck in Fredericksburg. We’ve seen crazier north shifts

gotcha, i didnt see any reports from Suffolk county. I always include the climo sites EWR, NYC, LGA, JFK, ISP, BDR...regardless of snowfall amount even if its 0. Otherwise, all other reports are at least a T or higher.

How we looking for tomorrow?