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That it is what I am cautious about. Ideal snow growth zones generally get narrowed closer to go time.

I would just like to see it track close enough to keep the winds more ENE, than NE.

Yea dry air and virga worries me. Gonna be a sharp cutoff as always. I thought about flying back from Florida but for some reason this thing isn't getting me excited. Plus it's gonna be 80 down here the next 3 days.

New Orleans picked up a foot last year lol

Great times! Looking forward to the next one.

I think the isoentropic lift portion is slightly better (despite less cyclogen-CCB Monday) hence the relatively stable / slightly increased in CNE QPF in this run But the coastal portion of the storm... 0z last night has the best depiction of coastal portion I could find, mini CCB into Tuesday 6z... that portion of the storm I haven't seen recovered yet, but there are varying hints of it across the models. Need the energy to round trough and interact sooner

Why? Even areas with warmer climates can see big snowstorms. The NYC area will continue to see periodic big snowstorms and snowy winters for the foreseeable future.

I'm skeptical of a super nino developing in 2026-27. They normally don't develop that strong on the first try. 2015-16 is a very good example. Some models were predicting a possible strong el nino as early as 2012-13. I think if there's a super el nino, it will more likely happen in 2027-28. If the el nino happens in 2026-27, I think it will be capped at a high end moderate, possibly low end strong. (We also cannot count out the possibility of a double-year el nino, peaking during the summer, like 1986-88.)

What model is this? I don't recognize it.

icon still all snow at 66. Finishes maybe a tad better than HH. dryslot now evident as primary holds on too long

This a bodyshop special. We get nothing but black ice and everyone wrecks their cars. Congrats Montreal and Niagara Falls. Unbelievable.

Yes, whatever ticks people are seeing on here it keeps getting warmer at surface on most modeling

Infants don't whine as much as that one.

This is the 01z 72-hour 50th percentile snowfall off the National Blend of Models. This is a significant bump up from the 19z run. The red area is 24-30 inches NW of OKC, the reddish orange area is snow totals of 18-24 inches, orange is 12-18. Goodness.

He should tell that to the people in Oswego. They had four feet of snow in 24 hours.

0z GFS on the clock.

I think it holds. Been consistent for 4 runs in a row. More consistent then most other models have been

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Just hoping we don’t get another north trend. Can’t really handle another down here.

Isn't there 5 more hours of precip after 7 PM Sunday? Wouldn't that then just be rain and not freezing rain?

Since the HRW FV3 still holds onto a similar idea at 00z, I'm thinking we get at least one more stubborn run out of it.

Speed of meaningful precipitation exit is still a cap on 20+ totals but parts of E MA have a shot.

Why bet on a foregone conclusion?