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82-83 was a very strong Nino year, one of the 3 strongest. We had a big snow in December, two decent ones in January and another in February. Temps were AN in December and normal for J and F. 1997-98 was a top 3. We had the massive NE Tennessee and then Plateau snow storms. December had several inches fall between Christmas and New Years. January was snowless here but NE areas got smashed late month. We got it a week later in Early February. Otherwise winter was mild. 2015-16 was a pretty snowy/cold winter for most of us I believe. So there's always a good chance of a big snow or several during the strongest Ninos. But the base pattern is likely to he N to AN temp wise.

Keep an eye on Wednesday. Some of the 0z mesos are suggesting there could be some strong storms that day. These ring of fire pattern storms can be hard to nail down until the day of.

Good ring of fire/NW flow/derecho set ups occur about every 5-8 yr in the NEUS. Looks like we will have to deal w/ this every day in some form June 30-July 4. One of better persistent setups I have seen in a while. This stuff can get nasty. Noted that Wed aftn, HRRR sfc-based CAPEs as high as 4800 in VT! EML present as well (WxWiz is happy!). The HRRR valid 00z Thu suggests derecho possible overnight parts of New England. Don't let all the capping present concern you. It is not much of factor for overnight convection when an EML is present. One of most sig features of EML convection is crazy overnight LTG shows. Par for course in the Plains, and it works the same when we get it here.

I think much of the general public is wise to all the hype, but it's always the few that yell and screen the loudest, cry foul "WE GOT NOT WARNING!" and worry about everything, and that gets all the attention and skews overall perception. Then you get knee-jerk reactions from politicians and authorities w/ silly changes and waste of resources. Cases in point, Matthew floods in NC/SC in 2016 and Ida floods in NYC in 2021. Warnings and strongly worded high flood risk statements out days in advance up the wazoo, and still politicians and authorities cried foul. It just goes to show even when fcsts are spot on, you still get nonsense. That makes me question this notion that more warnings are better from a social/political standpoint b/c you still get whiners regardless.

If we don’t get an Excessive Heat Watch/Warning, we’ve failed.

I'm glad this was brought up. You know earlier I was thinking what would make these 80 degree dewpoints even better? Smoky skies.

Yes, starting on Sat, it looks quite good for tstms in the Mid-Atlantic! Give us some good training soakers as we need the rain badly.

You have to delete old attachments from prior posts. Go to account and my attachments.

How are you able to upload a Pic? Each time I try it needs to be smaller than 10KB....KB!

BOS only had a high of 89° on the 3rd. But ACK was ahead of their Saturday pace…97° vs 95° at 11am. That ACK temp was pretty remarkable. Upper echelon airmass and they had a due 360 wind coming off the meat of the island. Once that wind went 230 it dropped right into the mid 80s. But yeah Hot Saturday was pretty humid…lots of low to mid 70s dews.

Hello darkness, my old friend.

This looks absolutely insane too. Canada is just dotted with fires seemingly from the Rockies all the way to the Atlantic Coast. What the heck is even burning up near the Arctic Circle? Nuts.

I agree. The disconnect between expectations, actual official verification, and forecast are off by quite a bit. But I’ll always wonder how much the general public cares.

And on Aug 3, BOS was something like 93 at 9am, but a BDF ruined what probably would have been their all-time highest temp!

I'm tracking some of this smoke, but haven't seen much note of it... however, if the HRRR is correct, it could get pretty nasty over parts of the region - including potentially the Twin Cities. Wonder if this might keep high temperatures in check tomorrow?

Devil's advocate? Good! Promotes more discussion and is a valid discussion position, and I take this position every so often as well! Yes, from a sensible wx POV, 100 vs. 104 is trivial. It's like last year when TPA hit 100 for the first time, when they had 99 many times. Is that *really* a big deal? The MSM sure made so it was! However, nothing is scaled properly anymore. You look at the MSM and so many on social media, slicing and dicing down everything to the smallest minutiae they can find to hype. So 100 and 104 in a social or psychological sense *is* a big deal. It really shouldn't be, but that's society for you. We have a very bad tendency to make mountains out of molehills and find issues where there is none. And yes, it will be hot and impact and the public knows that, but to embellish it w/ all these stupid bells and whistles and prophecies of doom? That is counterproductive and self-serving to those who promote senseless fear-mongering.

DCA: 98, 101, 102, 100 BWI: 99, 104, 104, 102 IAD: 97, 102, 103, 101 SBY: 97, 100, 101, 99 RIC: 99, 102, 104, 100 Total rain: 0.00"

And where is the MSM on that? Crickets. You can't have both ways. Selective reporting is rife.

I haven't seen anyone here forecast a cold winter. In fact, everyone expects a milder than avg mean. However, it has been discussed how there still remain plenty of opportunity for a big east coast storm, and for those of us further north multiple wintry opportunities exist in mild winters. Hes hoping for the warmest/least snowy outcome possible so he can enjoy weenie tears, but thats something thats really just wish casting.

Same for my stations.

It's 10 pm and our Baltimore City mesonet site, which is located on about 10 acres of grass, is still 80°.

Can I play devil's advocate for a minute? To "society," what is the actual impact difference between 100F vs. 104F? I'm not a fan of media, social media hype, etc. But maybe I'm jaded and just expect some level of hyperbole to occur in any content we consume (social media, streaming, TV, even radio), whether I agree or not. I certainly agree that it's way overblown, annoyingly so. I take solace in the fact that it might alert the public to a very hot period. Anyone without A/C doesn't care if it's 100F or 104F for an official high. It's an urban area, it's really hot regardless of the actual value. I think hyping low wind-chills can be a bit overblown too, but at the end of the day, the public knows it will be uncomfortable for a few days. I always wonder what would happen if they downplayed everything.

Speaking of 1975. I was 19 years old and a weather nerd. I vaguly remember that. I think it was on a NW flow with very low dews? Also what was the date that was the old weather forum meeting at BWI? That was one of the hottest BWI days but with very high dews.

I have got more rain in the last few hours and more to come than what seems like the last 4 months combined! Lots of lightning too

I think this is the most amazing earthquake video i have ever seen. Seems legit. I have never seen people being literally thrown to the ground.