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You’ve already had a mini start up there, but this will be a great start for many of. It comes true because it looks cold for a while.

Totally wrong . 12Z was uniformly better sans GFS

Yes it's all in where you are located. I just think a true snowy winter is overdue

nice to see the AIFS ENS come west

The foothills have averaged between 8-12 (sometimes more) inches of snow per decade generally until recently. For this decade so far we are averaging 3.5.

From a snow accumulation perspective last winter left much to be desired for a lot west of US1 but we had 3 WSW and 3 events that stayed below freezing throughout the event IMBY. Growing up here that didn’t happen all the time. I’ve lived here long enough to know that doesn’t happen every year. Think we can all agree we are missing that big coastal storm, and 2018 was the last time we got one. That being said central and eastern NC would take last years winter almost any year. Foothills folks are in purgatory

probably but just inland 10 miles there is more sometimes - lived down in Northern Ocean County for 13 years previously..........

A wee bit different take at the 850mb level between the GFS and European 12z....if GFS is right it rains up to MPO.

Ah, I see white stuff flying around here.

At 10:1 that’s white rain at the coast

Oh how you pray.. can't speculate on what later runs will show but solid dumping for many seems a lock.

Increased QPF and stronger inflow colder column what could go wrong Bretty

Phase 8 December Haven't seen that in years

Here are the d10-15 or d11-16 500 anomaly comparisons from the big four ensembles...Heights over Greenland are rising. BN heights over the SE. EPO/PNA ridge. BN heights over Alaska. It is correct that BN heights over Alaska don't teleconnect to BN heights over the SE as a general rule. But old school winters would have a cold Alaska and cold Southeast with an almost continuous cold feed from the Yukon into the Ohio Valley. It isn't without precedent, but recent climo is more or less against it. Interestingly, on the GEFS, the BN heights over Alaska are temporary and maybe on one other ensemble. Either way, that is a pretty decent cold signal for the first half of December. I won't rule out a big ridge rolling through for a few days.

I urge all of you to look at climatology on webber weather to see how winters used to be. https://www.webberweather.com/nc-winter-weather-climatology.html

Yeah, There is some inland tracks on some of these members which leads me to believe that the Euro is probably going to come west some in the next few cycles.

Skynet ens had more zonked members too

You slow...

12z EPS has persistent cold for though the end.

12z Euro Ens has a favorable h5 look with hints of some energy taking the southern route. Prior to that it looks NS dominant but for this window maybe we can get a wave ejecting from the SW to slide underneath.

It looks to be moving towards the GFS so yeah An inside the BM track looks doable.

Gee, I wonder where he got that from?

Lol miss Matt. Aren't you Lars' son?

You have to look at trends. Trends show the SE Ridge being muted but there enough to keep the storm track west.