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Just up the road from you in Germantown on Ridge Road heading to Clarksburg/Damascus we're a little closer to the darker blues. Hoping for some higher end IMBY.

Great video. Thanks for posting. Didn’t realize you’re from Philly or South Jersey. It has to be true with that accent.

The experimental new nam is going to cause headaches and nightmares with a 12z and 15z run time It's mostly been indicating 4-6" area wide

The 4 northern counties in CT and N RI are next

Damn HRRR getting wild for Jersey would extrapolate to like 6-12” with ratios and hours left

Flakes have started here in Bethel.

looks like 40-41 is where we're at here.

Scott got an advisory 1 mile to his south for 2-4” hope it works out for you and your son.

Box giving us 50/50 shot at 4” here

I think modeling has been suffering from really bad feedback(infinite loops). The other thing is that our cold source this season is insanely cold. We have seen years where 500 maps don't match the surface, and this might be one of them again.

WB 17Z HRRR at HR 18

AI Euro is pretty potent for many south of the pike. Probably should Be rooting for that model to be right lol

The CPC MJO plots, and this is not meant to be contentious, are in phase 8(has never left). They are parked there. Something is gonna have to give...either warm modeling or incorrect/correct MJO plots. Please answer --> Someone remind me...the green is the MJO convection, right? If so, mid Jan could be freaking cold.

NWS going advisories for all of southern ct , 2-4” locally 5”.. 4-6 locally 7” Long Island .. looks just like our map lol

Same.

The ensembles are really trying to get a -NAO established around Christmas. We just need some signs of life from the Pacific.

Yes! I have an apperntment with it tonight! Just a little more work to do preparing the landscape, getting the straggler leaves etc. up. (Did most of it late yesterday). Tomorrow night should have a heart of winter feel to it, almost squeaky snow cold here. The mesos are showing some "early" activity out ahead of the main area of precipitation, like around 7ish. Probably a mix to start if it comes in that early.

Thank you! Yeah I normally do them at work in a studio but just fired up the laptop today in the dining room lol

This storm reminds me a bit of the early January 2022 snow event. That one was more wide-reaching of course, but 3-5" of snow expected, but NYC ended up with 5-8", a fluffy snow because the temperature was around 31 for most of the event, and it was a complete nighttime event. Not expecting anywhere near 5-8" with this one, and we're also starting out a bit warmer with temps in upper 30s, so I'd expect some white rain in the beginning.

Models have been showing that Block shifting Eastward to being centered over Alaska. I made a post recently that we needed that to happen and get rid of any GOA Low. If that doesn't happen, yeah Trough should drop in the West. There have been rare times as I'm sure you know, where other Variables altered the typical outcome of Aleutian Ridge equates to western Trough however. Carvers can better describe what looks be be transpiring and maybe touch on those Variable's. I'm just too tired and sick to present everything myself. Carvers is much better than I am and a Master at that.

I would happily accept all the warmth and rain events possible from the 17th to the 24th if it is followed by a wintry stretch from Christmas to New Years.

NWS has DC at 2”. I’m bummed that the jackpot zone will so clearly not be here, but I feel much better here than I would in Loudoun - no offense. I don’t think we’re cooked. Might change my mind in a few hours though

Wait, did you move to the western burbs?

Let's see if my wife is right in that im always wrong.

Lock it in.