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Someone should photoshop your face into the video, that would be epic

unless the low in the east coast merges with the kicker! and it actually slows the storm down completely but it has to be perfect timing.

Mid 30’s and rain from tonight thru Sunday . Can’t wait

It was a very typical Dec/Jan type snowfall. Events in these months are much more typically nickels, sometimes dimes, until late Feb thru April.

@GaWx

Most of that was from threats inside day 7. You won’t see a mean like that from a pattern that’s mostly day 7+

We’re getting there. That’s my take and all I can feel confident in. For now, I’ll appreciate the melt underfoot and get ready for what’s next. Plenty of football to distract the most distraught this weekend. We have a lot of good potential that is holding as we get closer. Don’t let perfect be the enemy of good.

MLK storm in January 2022 was sorta like that. Was low teens the morning it started, got a couple inches of snow, mixed, turned to heavy rain. No thunder that I recall.

As long as the AO remains negative and the pacific ridge remains displaced north (no crazy ridge just north of Hawaii) we will continue to have chances and I see no signs of either of those things flipping yet

Maybe you can see for yourself

Or visa versa. Man... So many people want to focus on the negative ( when I get it because there's not a lot of good that we've had over the last several seasons ). But man, not a way to live LOL. Especially when it's a hobby that we all love. I just can't sit here and think the worst. Just not in my makeup. Let's see what happens.....

Yeah, I’d like to see that showing a little something better.

Its definite a cold look as we get into next weekend just looking at whats going through East Asia the next few days, for a few days,maybe we can score during this time

the EPS snow mean map got depleted again. Last year it was showing 8-12 inches

At day 10? Nothing is off the table.

These youngsters will never learn

This from Don Sutherland, the Paul DiPodesta of weather forecasting: Although the events are still outside ability of the operational guidance to reliably resolve the synoptic details, the 12z guidance continues to be encouraging. It it consistent with the ongoing and incredibly orderly pattern evolution that has been underway since the start of January. In that evolution, cold should begin to return next week. Afterward, as the PNA rises, opportunities for snowfall should begin to increase. As noted previously, both severe cold and significant snowfall are unlikely through at least mid-January. The transition to a more wintry pattern probably won't be completed by then. But shortly afterward, the probability of snowfall should increase. The probability of moderate or significant snowfalls would be higher if a PNA+ can develop and then be sustained. Arctic air might begin to get involved around or after January 20th. The overall consensus in the guidance is that a general WPO-/EPO-/AO- pattern will develop just after mid-month. Such patterns in combination with a PNA+ are 1.7 times more likely to see one or more days with a 4" or above snowfall than when combined with a PNA-. Regardless of the state of the PNA, those patterns have seen measurable snowfall nearly once every five days, which is 1.6X climatology (1980-2025). As for the 12z GFS's systems during the roughly 168-hour and 222-hour timeframes, it's far too soon to resolve details. That there's activity is sufficient. In general, if things progress as has often occurred during the kind of pattern evolution described above, a delay in the first event would allow the trough more time to sharpen before the storm's development/arrival. That would increase prospects of its having a more impactful track than shown on the 12z GFS. The second system, as things currently stands, likely has the higher probability of taking an impactful track. Although its solution is different, the latter timeframe has support from the GGEM. Model skill at that timeframe is low. For now, it's more useful to stick with the overall pattern progression described above, avoid speculating over synoptic details that the guidance cannot resolve at these timeframes, and leave the details concerning potential events for later. That there's potential is what's both important and encouraging.

Could be. I'll check that or when I get a moment. I think there were some negative mid-teens in places here around 1984 and 2009 as well, but usually my memory of radiational cooling fades as fast as the temperature rises when the wind picks up.

lol, get a load of this guy. When did you move here, last night?

That looks like a MA blockbuster with snow to mix and dry slot NYC to BOS. I guess I'm still a little disappointed about 1993

That is probably due to the old weather instruments being in a warmer area with less cold air drainage than where the current FOK ASOS is located.

That definitely does not look like a Miller A KU setup to me. Maybe @forkyfork can chime in?

If next week fails to deliver, this winter can go f itself. another on an ass heap of 'no, this winter's going to be much better' history lol

AIs haven't really bitten at all, although AIGFS has a nasty looking negative tilted trough for the second "event".