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Far NW suburbs still on track for a possible C-2" tomorrow. Unlike last week which was more of a latitudinal gradient, this potential wintry event has a stronger elevational component. I could see the top of Schunnemunk or Mt. Beacon getting an inch or two of snow while the Hudson River towns get zilch. Elevated NW NJ could get a little accumulation this time too.
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
WxWatcher007 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
A lot of dumb stuff out there these days -
A lot of moving parts to try to resolve in a given window. Makes sense I suppose
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Sey-Mour Snow replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
That’s bc that same guy NE WX with 135k followers posted an image of the 18z 384 hour gfs yesterday showing snow and icemageddon on Christmas Eve. No wonder why we get such a bad rap. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Birds~69 replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Does drought guy have relatives in NY? NY subforum has several recent drought related post. Right up his alley....may want to get him on the horn. -
Or insanity
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thank you!
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Baroclinic Zone replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
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That model is horrible!
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
WinterWolf replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
This will be a good test for both of them…if they get this right, that will be pretty impressive. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Ruin replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yet we get nothing or did it change -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Baroclinic Zone replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
The Event Horizon -
Damn Diane, sorry to hear. My daughter has MCAS as well, along with POTS and EDS. One thing she’s learned is to watch for things that trigger a response and try to minimize those thing. No easy task but she’s made strides since being diagnosed.
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Winter 2025-26 Short Range Discussion
Baum replied to SchaumburgStormer's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Ground zero. -
The Monday wintry event potential (12/8/25)
WinstonSalemArlington replied to GaWx's topic in Southeastern States
Spectacular pics -
Regular GFS squishes it like a bug, congrats-ish DC to Cape May. Didn’t even know there was an AI GFS.
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I remember 2013-2014 having some rain, but there was persistent cold between systems. The thaws were mostly brief warm sectors, no major Pacific intrusions. The real polar vortex came later.
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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
GTH Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 12/09/25 Valid - 12/17/25 - 12/30/25 Following a very high amplitude Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagation across the Pacific at the end of November, the intraseasonal signal has rapidly weakened as it crossed the Americas and Atlantic in early December and now resides within the unit circle. The strong MJO event was the result of constructive interference between the MJO itself and Kelvin Wave (KW) activity which have become more decoupled in recent days. Long range dynamical model ensembles depict the RMM-based MJO signal generally remaining within the unit circle, with some re-emergence into the Western Hemisphere around the end of week-2. While the GEFS and ECMWF show this evolution to some degree, the CFS is the most robust in its depiction of a more coherent loop of the RMM-based signal which comes out of the unit circle in phases 7 and 8 later in December. Velocity potential filtering indicates a very fast moving enhanced convective signal circumnavigating the globe during the next 2 weeks, despite the lack of an RMM-based signal appearing over the Eastern Hemisphere. However, an experimental projection of objectively filtered KW activity in phase space reveals a continuously circumnavigating signal, which at times constructively and destructively interferes with lower frequency modes. This makes for a rather complex and low confidence Global Tropics Hazards Outlook and is based mainly on La Nina composites and some consideration of dynamical models. -
Our average high is 27F Christmas week, so that wouldn't be brutal here, unless accompanied by 2 inches of rain...
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
WmsptWx replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Blizzard warnings hoisted in West Virginia. -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Let's start by calling the 14th a 'possible event', and leave the word threat for something that actually threatens anything haha -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
MGorse replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Low temperature of 11F here early this morning. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
WmsptWx replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
That temperature should trigger automatic yard time. -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Typhoon Tip replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
the guy "instructing" us why that GFS solution wasn't likely
