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The fast flow makes us more prone to bad luck because it disrupts attempts as phasing (suppression), and disrupts blocking (cutters/huggers).

Storm total in Midlothian, VA was 4.5”! What a nice long lasting storm!

Yeah, at least it's not windy.

Single or double wrapped?

At 8:00 AM EST, 1 E Yanceyville [Caswell Co, NC] Trained Spotter reports Snow of 1.40 Inch

You average what, 2" at this point?

RIC snow has been finalized at 4.0 inches for December 8th, to bring the seasonal total there to 6.0 inches and shaking up our leaderboard. We now have 13 negative departures at RIC, and @JenkinsJinkiescannot now catch @rjvanalsoverall. @LittleVillageWxis still in the lead, but a combined 1.1 inches of additional snow at RIC and DCA will make @rjvanalsthe new leader.

I'll try to stay safe while expecting snow-

Exactly why we need to get back to patterns which are southern stream dominant with weaker northern streams which phase in...bring back the storms riding up the coast. Forget this whole "we can do well in northern stream" crap. Maybe there was a winter or two where it worked out and that's what people cling too...just like for the longest time everyone was obsessed with weak La Nina's because of 1995-1996.

I'm not wrong. But feel free to go inspect the environmental damage they have been doing. I'm sure it is all top notch construction too like the bridge that just collapsed that was lauded just a few weeks ago

You‘re right about that, this doesn’t seem like a typical La Nina, even though cold decembers do follow the nina pattern. We have three defining features right now: 1) Stratosphere activity 2) MJO activity in phase 7-8 and/or split forcing 3) Strong -WPO Even with a warm up this month, the models maintain all three features and in conjunction they lead to a cold January based on historical analog matches. If - and a big IF - we lose ALL three features by January (strong SPV, MJO 3-4-5, +WPO that scours cold air out of Canada), January will torch like 2006 and 2017. But right now, I don’t see us losing any one of these features.

No one knows. Just have to hope and pray often. It’s all we have, it’s all we can do.

Thank you both for the explanation. I appreciate it!

Seems we are in a warm/wet, cold/dry type pattern in SNE. 42 and rain tomorrow followed by frigid temps, again. SMH

Another beautiful drive to Asheville today. Light dusting of snow in Old Fort turned into rime ice on the mountain with the fog and sun breaking through. Wish i could have taken some pictures. As I posted a week or so ago, the pattern is going to likely break down and we are going to warm up for at least a week before Christmas. What happens after that is up in the air but the current colder than normal pattern isn't one that's right for snow for us. We need- 1. A sharper western ridge in the right place- This will lead to energy diving further south to get it where we need it instead of over the Ohio valley. We need it to drop down across the front range. 2. Better southern stream energy. We need a phase to get our best snows and right now the northern stream is squashing the southern stream enough to prevent that. 3. Cold air damming and a 50/50 low to keep it in place. This one might be the most key. The pattern has still been progressive and any highs have been weak or moving away too quickly.

12z medium range models and cams have caved to the Euro and GFS. Looks like it could be a solid storm for the northern two thirds of the MSP metro. .

From a common sense perspective that makes sense, but it clearly isn't playing out that way so there must be some sort of meteorological reasoning. We can attribute it to "bad luck" but the atmosphere doesn't work on luck, the atmosphere and weather are governed by principles, physics, etc. The atmosphere is telling us a story and we need to dive deep into the woods to figure out this story. I really hope deep in the modeling and physics worlds, there is work being done to better understand how/why the atmosphere has evolved these last few years...why these faster flow, why models are struggling with it. The only way forecast models can improve on this is if we better understand the process and then taking that knowledge and translating that into mathematical language so computer forecast models can understand it. There clearly is a reason as to why things just aren't working out and we do have some basic ideas and knowledge into this, but hoping for things to play out in favor just because the chances seem to be there isn't meteorologically correct. We are seeing the same thing over and over...fast flow, certain guidance over amplifying in specific time ranges, a whole lot of models guidance swings inside 72 hours...there are reasons for this.

This morning, we saw many valley locations across the area down into the single digits for low. The lowest was the 6.1 at Warwick. This was the coldest morning since late last January when many spots saw below zero temps both the 21st and 22nd of January. We continue to keep well below normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. We do warm up to closer to normal tomorrow which should allow any start of snow or freezing rain to switch to plain rain from SE to NW across the area by late morning. A couple more chances of snow look possible both on Friday night and again on Sunday morning. More frigid temperatures follow any snow potential on Sunday with the coldest day so far this year by next Monday.

Not hating the "snowpack in place, frequent refreshers" pattern we are in. Feeling pretty good for a white christmas.

We’re in NAM range for a December event again? This has been awesome from a tracking perspective even if nobody north of Fredericksburg has too much to show for it, lol

This morning, we saw many valley locations across the area down into the single digits for low. The lowest was the 6.1 at Warwick. This was the coldest morning since late last January when many spots saw below zero temps both the 21st and 22nd of January. We continue to keep well below normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. We do warm up to closer to normal tomorrow which should allow any start of snow or freezing rain to switch to plain rain from SE to NW across the area by late morning. A couple more chances of snow look possible both on Friday night and again on Sunday morning. More frigid temperatures follow any snow potential on Sunday with the coldest day so far this year by next Monday.

I can understand your point….but if we were just at average, there’d be people squawking there isn’t any cold in sight…Decembers suck, bla bla bla…so you can’t win. Now we have the big cold, and it’s literally snowing everywhere but here. Nothing we can do. Grin and bear it.

Yeah, too much cold is; well, too much for legit snow opportunities. We are seeing that play out currently with the bouts of southern snows. It was fascinating watching the snow in VA get shunted south throughout the day yesterday as the arctic air ambushed the state from north to south.

I rode in -20 to-35 conditions up in the county several years back on back to back days, Once its that cold, You can't tell the difference from -20 to -35.

Nam starting to show the little clipper for Friday.