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TT said: "Over the past 10 years, the estimated warming ratehas been around 0.35°C per decade, depending on the dataset, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade on average from 1970 to 2015.” TT, A problem I see is that you’re using just one decade for the 0.35/decade calculation vs using 4.5 decades to determine the ~0.2/decade.

garden variety classic, needed and nice

Still a fairly robust pack here. It'd be funny to lose it all and then have it reappear by the end of March.

There is a period late Saturday into first half of Sunday with dew 48-58 across SNE .. That will cause some damage .. Then again late Tuesday

This warm stretch keeps getting eroded...

The problem with this warmer weather coming up is that everything is just gonna be a mess. It’s almost better that we didn’t have any snow on the ground because at least things wouldn’t be a muddy mess. Finally seeing a small patch of grass where it’s sloped, wind scoured, and destroyed by turkeys pecking away at it.

Oh man this is hitting just right.

Still looks like 55-65 Potential Sunday through early Wednesday for most of SNE even into CNE . DXR may pull a 70 one day..

The squalls on New Years were crazy too...had like 3" from that event with over 2" from the squalls alone.

You’d think the AIFS is closer to the correct solution given the lack of blocking. Really think the OP Euro is out to lunch here, but we’ll see.

Yeah that too. Am I remembering correctly the cape had a white Christmas as well? 3.5” in that 12/26 deal here. But up until 1/17 it did feel like we were getting shit luck again with the smaller deals.

Love waking up to the sound of thundery downpours in the morning

29.8F Snow final was 3.5". It was an over achiever. I don't believe we were ever under a winter advisory and my point and click said 1". Okay, I'm ready for spring weather.

Wouldn’t mind waiting until April for a true torch since averages will be higher then, making the warmth more useful.

I am not sure how I feel about this conditional intensity addition to the SPC outlooks. I understand the premise behind it but I feel like this is going to introduce a great deal of confusion. I do like the changes though which will make high risks order to become issued although that means we will never see a high risk here again

57.4 for the low already up to 72. Looks like our record high of 82 will fall today

Freezing fog/mist since yesterday. Trees coated pretty good with surfaces having a thin coat. Temps are to rise into the upper 30's today, but we'll see. Hopefully that will be the case before any rain falls. Power blinking for a short time early this morning.

1.7 in methuen but it was a difficult measure because of the 3/4 of an inch of rain/ sleet that had frozen below the layer of sleet/snow. Easily the most difficult cleanup of the season.

We also had a white Xmas west of 128....12/26 wasnt bad here either, about 4-4.5"

melt it all. Will be elephant man pack by then.

March 6 1836: Unusual cold for March lasts for 12 days at Ft. Snelling. During this time, 7 nights were in the double-digits below zero. For Friday, March 6, 2026 1872 - A cold wave hit the East coast sending the mercury plunging to 8 degrees below zero at Boston. It was the most severe March cold wave in modern history. (David Ludlum) 1900 - A chinook wind blowing down the slopes of the Rockies through Havre MT raised the temperature 31 degrees in just three minutes. (The Weather Channel) 1954 - Florida received its greatest modern-day snowfall of record, with 4.0 inches at the Milton Experimental Station. Pensacola FL equalled their 24-hour record with 2.1 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Twenty-eight cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Pickstown SD was the hot spot in the nation with a reading of 83 degrees. The high of 71 at Saint Cloud MN smashed their previous record by 21 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Wintry weather developed in the Rockies and the Plateau Region as arctic air swept in from the northwest. Blizzard conditions in southeast Idaho claimed the lives of two teenagers. Thunderstorms developed in Utah and Idaho. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A winter storm in the south central U.S. left parts of Missouri and Arkansas buried under more than a foot of snow. Heavier snowfall totals in Missouri included 14 inches at Springfield and 16 inches at Lebanon. Totals in Benton County AR ranged up to 14 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Colorado's strongest winter storm of the season moved northeastward across the state producing 50 inches of snow at Echo Lake, 46.5 inches on Buckhorn Mountain, and 46 inches near the top of Coal Canyon. Snow fell at the rate of several inches per hour during the height of the storm, while winds gusted above 50 mph. Several hundred rush hour commuters, including the state governor, were stranded in blizzard conditions along Highway 36 between Denver and Boulder. Drifts up to twelve feet high had to be cleared southeast of Boulder. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Was always very nervous about the mid-week period when looking at that configuration across Canada. It's extremely difficult this time of year here to get full blow warm frontal passages through the region. It can be easy to get carried away with seeing pretty oranges with H5 anomalies and 850 temp anomalies but there is alot that can muk up sfc warm frontal passages. This is exactly how NNE (especially elevations) can rack up end of season snowfall totals

Here's a fresh itch for deniers to scratch https://phys.org/news/2026-03-reveal-significant-global.html "Over the past 10 years, the estimated warming rate has been around 0.35°C per decade, depending on the dataset, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade on average from 1970 to 2015. This recent rate is higher than in any previous decade since the beginning of instrumental records in 1880." Almost doubling the previous 4.5 decades of d(warm)/dt rate during the last 10, leaping from .2 to .35/d Probably 2023 has big arithmetic weight in that, considering it was unilateral whole degree C among all systems on Earth, air, sea and coupling air/sea. It does make me wonder if ... suppose over this next 8 years there is no sudden wholesale planetary leap by another whole deg C, doing so all at terrifying once, where the "density" of the species ignores the eye popping significance again: Would the next delta settle back below .35C? I suspect there is a rather larger chance in the total probability spectrum for that being the case, because looking back at climate change of the past/geological inference, the climate does not move up or down in smooth graphical trajectories. There'll probably be simmering increases that "leap" every once in a while. If you catch one of those years in your decadal data set, you're deltas will boast ( or perhaps "roast" heh ) a bigger change. The climate graphs are "serrated" with intra-time span periods that dips shits use to lout the planet's cooling off, or twist that to prove the warm data was faked... or whatever they need, while hailing from a position of really no much formal education and/or proven higher reasoning ability in the matter whatsoever ... so we should really allow them to guide destiny of humanity. Yeah!

Here in Carlisle yesterday...I also heard my first thunder of the year, twice a few minutes apart. That was followed by heavy rain which put down the (almost) first 1" rain day for this year. I'll have to go back and find the last occurrence. I measured 0.96" for the day. Yesterday was also the third consecutive day with measurable precip; Tuesday: 0.22"; Wednesday: 0.06"; Thursday: 0.96" for a 3-day total of 1.24". Total for the month is now 1.24" and for the year to date 4.94". If you check out my snowfall season totals (below) you will see that the winter of 20-21 with 30.5" is the only winter so far this decade with almost normal for the season. Every other season has been substantially below normal with season totals at or below 20". And, to add insult to injury, who can forget the winter of '19-'20 with my season total of just 6.5"!? I only just surpassed last year's 14.9" with season-to-date of 16.1". Throw a party.

Yeah HRRR was on crack for this... but so was the GFS