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67 / 62 those partly cloudy forecasts were very questionable looking at the satellite vis loop yesterday. Some showers and light rain into the bottom half of NJ as the cut off ULL spins off the Mid Atlantic coast. Pushes north tomorrow with light drizzle. / rain and showers and a cool onshore flow keeping most places in the low 60s. Slowly clear out Thu and warms up on a NW flow. Fri warmest day of the next 5-7 mid 80s in the warmest spots. Dry cooler weekends- 70s then overall warmer beyond there. 9/16 - 9/17 : Clouds ULL , light rain - cooler 9/18 - 9/19: Warmer - warmest Fri ahead of front 9/20 - 9/21 : Dry / cooler weekend a bit below normal 9/22 - Beyond : Overall warmer

Satellite photos show an ULL dropping down, that probably will interfere with development. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/53dc1fce-b712-4618-afb4-c94259665cca

@snowman19

Of interest to me... the steadiest of all the modeling the past 5 days or so... the ECAI and its ECAIEPS. Rain is coming and underplayed I80 northward. I think NYC counts on 0.1-0.4" and up here in far nw NJ/ne PA/along the nYS border 0.05-0.30. WPC should have statistical comparisons of the ensembles and am surprised its so dry in its overnight forecast. Could be my interp is incorrect but while this wont be a great relief from the recent dryness, it will help, provided my interp is correct. Wont surprise me to see at least an inch in spots across theNJ/LI portion of our subforum. GEFS lagging and so we'll know tomorrow night and I guess that's what WPC tends to support.

8AM TWO: getting very close now… Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa have become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Looks to be a severe -WPO/EPO.....somewhat +PNA and a modestly -NAO/AO.

Not that this is right per se, because it probably isn't....but I'm not sure folks appreciate just how cold this is given the 1984-2009 climo base. If I were planning to copy and paste a composite of the past ten winters as some often muse, this would give me pause.

Followup: Bastardi is livid that this hasn’t been named:

Bastardi is livid that this hasn’t been named:

It's coming.

CFS for December:

It’s a good bit cooler today with the flow off the ocean increasing and mostly cloudy skies. Despite the current NWS forecast for mid-70's I suspect across the higher spots we may struggle to escape the 60's to near 70 degrees for high temperatures today. Some showers arrive this evening and through the day tomorrow. Certainly not a lot of rain but any and all will be appreciated by our many area farmers. We briefly warm by Friday to the low 80's before we cool down for the weekend.

It’s a good bit cooler today with the flow off the ocean increasing and mostly cloudy skies. Despite the current NWS forecast for mid-70's I suspect across the higher spots we may struggle to escape the 60's to near 70 degrees for high temperatures today. Some showers arrive this evening and through the day tomorrow. Certainly not a lot of rain but any and all will be appreciated by our many area farmers. We briefly warm by Friday to the low 80's before we cool down for the weekend.

Yeah we are not getting any rain from this system at this point. NWS will have to catch up.

I don't think it's means much in the sense that it will nail the forecast per se, as the CFS is really only useful anout a month out; however, it is very notable because the model is usually warm in the winter.

Bust on the rainfall here that is for sure.

I cannot believe how dry it’s gotten after back to back 9”+ rainfall months at my house. We’re on track to finish with under 1/2” of rain for the entire month and I frankly don’t see another rain chance unless something tropical happens

Yeah that isn't happening at all.

Fires !

The cold departures will be shrinking over the next few weeks. Looks warmer than average especially over the driest areas to our west. Whether the warm spots across the area see more mid 80s like the past several days will come down to wind direction. Data for September 11, 2025 through September 15, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 90 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 90 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 86 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 85 HARRISON COOP 85 SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 84 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 84 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 84 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 84 Trenton Area ThreadEx 84 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 84

Are you freaking kidding me. Imagine it is the opposite in winter and the jackpot zone is Hippy, me, Astro, and up to you while ineedweenies is malding about having mix issues Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

There a product link to that data? Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

The Atlantic SSTs are still near the warmest on record. So this lull is more about the warmer waters further north across the oceans causing too much tropical stability. The Gulf SSTs are near the warmest on record also. So any system can get into the Gulf would have plenty of fuel. I am hoping that that area can catch a break from all the damage that has occurred the last decade. But the local residents can’t let their guard down. Since much of the activity has been backloaded into the late season there.