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This is going to be a brutal borderline to ride. I wouldn’t be surprised with 2 or 6” and were less than twelve hours out.

Yeah I'm really thinking for those SE of like Selinsgrove this may be a non-event.

Still like our map from yesterday. Glad I put in a high ceiling. I could see you with 6-8 easily while lower elevations like East Hartford is at 5-6". Steve is in the 2-5 zone but he probably does pretty well out there too. This should be a good one for CT.

The NAM is just a return to reality. Nobody actually believed the 6z QPF when it was completely alone, right? Especially knowing its biases to overamp these systems.

ehhh some people put faith in the Cowboys every year

lol at putting your faith in the 12k nam when it’s well north of consensus.

Gfs has been pretty consistent to though

3k is different than 12

3k Nam came south with the heavy banding .

Think we get a few here which is cool with me.

Hey Brett, it’s gone in two days anyways.

Last post for a bit...any time we start seeing big highs in Canada on modeling, that has been a good signal for winter weather in our area. 17-18 would be the exception.

You would get into the heavy stuff too on the 3km. The 3km definitely isn't bad looking. Its a wall of snow coming in but it quickly starts to lose its oomph as it moves east.

Always possible. Every model shows 0.4 to 0.9 of QPF. Time to get the snowblowers ready and enjoy.

Him hyperventilating about one day in the low 50s on the eve of an impending winter storm, in a month where we are more than five degrees below average in aggregate, and with another cold plunge on the way for next week is, uuuummmmm, some kind of choice.

I agree. Nice window. The end of January and early February has a similar signal. I really want to see if the 12z GEM moderates its temps for Jan 2 or if other models move colder. The 6z Euro trended colder as did several members of the ensemble, but ended before it got here. Not sure I want to see that entire air mass on Jan 2nd. I think our best bet is for the Canadian Rockies cold to come out in pieces and catch the STJ if it can get more active. I think the GEM has the right idea with the cold front on January 2nd, but also is suffering from feedback in the form of too much cold. But any air mass which is that cold could very well have snow with it. I will guess moderation for Jan 2, but still cold. That leaves the door open for Jan 6-10 to have a storm IMHO.

Definitely time for nowcasting. The models are usually never perfect in nailing the warm nose and the timing of said warm nose. Who knows, maybe it comes in heavier and colder so areas thump for an hour or two and pick up more snow? Or maybe the warm nose is deeper and it's more freezing rain vs sleet? We'll see.

What would you be happy with in this storm? 3"? I mean you are in Taunton correct, I've been tossing the NAM, if you do that, the EURO,GFS,HRRR, all have you at 2-3" if we assume 12:1 ratios or so..

That’s our boy.

The op EURO and EPS has been rock solid for days, hasn’t budged at all on a general 4-6 inches area wide, run after run. Makes me believe it has the right idea

You almost have to respect the worst case scenario as the most possible outcome here now. Just the way it goes for winter weather in 2025

So the NAM has the final call?

Wow, I didn't realize 2023 was that warm. Yeah, that's sounds about right then. Probably around ~3F above the 1991-2020 mean seems a good bet. I was thinking 2023 was like +3.8F... it was a couple of weeks ago since I looked at the numbers on NCEI.

Looks like a lot of people were interested

Thank god the depressed Brett is back. SEMA rejoices.