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In the world of model runs, the 12Z (midday) and 06Z (early morning) comparison is where we usually see the "reality check" for a storm's moisture content. The WeatherNext 2 (WN2) 12Z run has shown a notable uptick in QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) for the Marion and Asheville areas compared to the 06Z. Here is the breakdown: QPF Comparison: 06Z vs. 12Z (Jan 31 Event) Run Avg. Liquid QPF (Asheville) Avg. Liquid QPF (Marion) Analysis 06Z Run 0.65" 0.72" Lighter moisture; faster storm movement. 12Z Run 0.88" 0.95" Heavier moisture; slower "pivot" over the mountains. What this means for you: Higher Liquid-to-Snow Potential: The increase in QPF at 12Z suggests the storm is pulling more moisture from the Atlantic than previously thought. If Asheville stays all snow with a $12:1$ ratio, that 0.88" of liquid translates to roughly 10.5 inches of snow. The "Heavy Wet" Threat: In Marion, the jump to nearly 1.00" of liquid QPF is actually a bit concerning. Because Marion is more likely to see a period of sleet, that much liquid means you aren't just getting "slush"—you're getting a significant weight of ice. One inch of liquid is a massive amount of weight for trees and power lines already stressed by last week’s ice. Consistency: The fact that the 12Z "upped the ante" on moisture suggests that the Upper Level Low we discussed is becoming more organized. It’s "digging" deeper, which allows it to tap into a better moisture fetch from the Gulf.

Oh I'm definitely cautious. Just thought it would be interesting to see if there is indeed a sliver of heavier precip over the Blue Ridge like it said.

The "Gulf of America" will ICE it out. The Gulf of Mexico is more open to Miller A immigration.

I’ve noticed Gemini has been doing some weird things and getting confused with the model runs. I almost wonder if it’s pulling from a different day or different run. Given that it can’t output a map I’m a little cautious with it after some odd outputs.

Top 3 CIPS analogs this afternoon based on the 12z GFS: 1. Jan 2016 2. BDB 2010 3. Jan 1996 There's my weenie contribution for the day, because yes we have time to draw this back NW but the Euro remaining put doesn't inspire confidence.

We don’t need massive changes lol. EPS getting less impressive is a bummer but we really do just need some small changes in the timing of the upper low cutting off/further NE and the kicker being a little slower and spaced apart from our storm. It’s not like last winter where we had a few phantom MECS runs we all wanted to believe but based on the pattern we knew it was bogus.

Gotta love AI.

Generally no, but in cases like this where the setup is semi complicated with a ton going on we've seen it happen.

Still have a few more minutes, it’s not out yet

For some reason I’m feeling that way too, we’ll see!

I think all is just fine today. I know from experience if snow gets to DC its over for us in SEVA.

Not sure exactly what to make of this, but tomorrow is really last day for material changes from OTS to coastal. Its not going from nothing to storm in last 72 hours. Boxing Day was a long time ago and im hoping the models have improved since then

+12 (1/25) +2.5 (1/26) 40.6" ots Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Lol what a bogus output

Yikes.

DGEX jackpot up here every time. Miss that model, lol.

As an AI, I cannot directly "display" a live image file or a proprietary dashboard like the WeatherNext 2 (WN2) DeepMind interface. However, I can provide a high-fidelity "text-map" description based on the 12Z WN2 snow accumulation data for North Carolina as of today, January 27. The 12Z run is striking because it shows a very narrow, intense "ribbon" of heavy snow directly over the Blue Ridge. WN2 12Z Snow Accumulation Map: Summary Region Map Color/Shading WN2 Snow Total (inches) Boone / Banner Elk Dark Purple (Highest) 14–18" Asheville / Weaverville Deep Purple 9–12" Waynesville / Sylvia Deep Purple 8–11" Hendersonville / Saluda Light Purple to Pink 4–7" (Sleet mix begins) Charlotte / Hickory Pink to Orange (Ice/Sleet) 1–3" (Major Ice Threat)

I've always wondered if I will ever see a blizzard in my life that beats 1978 totals. With climate change it seems less likely but we've still had some massive storms the last couple of decades so I guess anything is possible. But it goes to show you just how rare and special that storm really was. 1996 came close but that was six months before I was born. 2005 was the biggest of my life and that was fun. 2022, 2013 and 2015 was amazing also.

TBF, LWX has been saying Wednesday as the day for a couple days now

Too early to write this one off...give it until Thursday. If the EPS dont show any hits, we move on

On the Euro and GFS at 500 MB, what, if anything is north of the storm's evolution which eventually may push it to the east or northeast?

I mean no doubt the odds are low, but 64 (or however many the Euro has) ensemble members hardly probe the entire space of perturbations. I wouldn’t call it a complete model failure if we get some flakes.

Perhaps it'll be tomorrow when the most volatile piece, the TPV, gets sampled.

Lol 15 here.

We just don't know (I think it is a Cape Scraper in the end... hope you are right)