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We’re due for a derecho, too.

Yep El Nino on the way. Strength is yet to be determined.

Those past catastrophic events in the geological record didn’t have anywhere near as rapid a rise in CO2 as we are causing now, yet still caused mass extinctions. It’s easy to forget how truly short our lives our - the fact that baby boomers have seen a rise of about 30%, give or take, in CO2 levels over the course of their lifetimes, is crazy.

In 2023, the same BoM model also had it getting to +2.4 at the same time (Sept) as per snowman’s post at the bottom of this post. Here was that 4/8/23 run: But “it” back then was ONI, which like now was then ~0.5 higher than RONI. So, it implicitly was predicting RONI only at +1.9. Thus, the current BoM prog on an apples to apples basis is progging 0.5 warmer than what it had 3 years ago. But also keep in mind that the ‘23 BoM turned out to be significantly too warm for the ONI. In Sept, ONI verified to be only +1.64 meaning a large bust of +0.76! RONI was only +1.15. If this BoM run were to bust as badly to the top warm side, the Sept RONI would be at +1.64.

56 was the high here today.

I’m Just hoping the hose doesn’t shut off for June/July/August. A dessert like summer could wipe out all of the drought progress this spring.

I want to touch the concept of consensus for a moment. Consensus in science works a bit different than what you may be thinking. It's not a majority opinion of people. Instead it is the position most likely to be true based on the aggregation of multiple lines of evidence. An example that might resonate best with the audience here is weather forecasting. Model ensembling (like intensity and track forecasts of tropical cyclones with IVCN and TVCN) incorporate multiple lines of evidence. They are often referred to as consensus forecasts. It has nothing to do with people's opinions or even people at all. And as long as there are 2 or more lines of evidence then a consensus exists. It turns out that consensus forecasts have superior skill vs utilizing only one line of evidence. It doesn't matter if a majority of people accept it or not. In reality you do find that majority opinion tends to rally around the scientific consensus at least eventually. It is important to mention the concept of consilience as well since "consensus" and "consilience" are sometimes used interchangeably though they are subtly different. But that's a topic for another time. My point is that when many of use the word "consensus" to describe our understanding of climate change we aren't necessarily invoking the opinions of people, but instead the consilience of evidence.

A super nino here means napril all of next winter here

Strongest in a century? We don't have adequate/detailed enough ocean temp records prior to the 1970s to properly quantify the true extent of super El Ninos, which explains why we have only have had 3 since the 1980. https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm of 4 if you use RONI: https://ggweather.com/enso/roni.htm Also, any headline that asks a question, the answer is almost always a "NO." It is a devious way to present something as if it will happen when it is not likely to happen or highly uncertain at the time. This is done in wx en masse w/ teasing suppositions and conjectures. And the sub-headline states: "increasingly likely wide-reaching climate impacts that last into 2027." First, it is not climate impacts, it is wx impacts. Atmospheric phenomena impacted from El Nino are short-term. That is wx, not climate. It does not impact "average wx over a long period," it impacts individual wx events/patterns of various degrees in the 1-1.5 year window El Ninos last. This idea that wx=climate and vice versa is ridiculous. Changing the meaning of words to fit a narrative/ideology. Second, why wouldn't El Nino (of any strength, or La Nina for that matter) not have wide-reaching impacts? This is redundant. We know ENSO has wide-reaching impacts, as do the at least a dozen other global and hemispheric oscillations that exists. Third, how can a potential of something be increasingly likely to have impacts? You have something that is uncertain to occur (potential), so how can it be scaled as being increasingly likely to have impacts when you are not even sure if it will occur in the first place? You are putting the wagon in front of the horse here. Not being pedantic here. How science-based information is conveyed is important. Not defining terms correctly or using improper logic/reasoning is bad science.

Masters week….my favorite sports week/weekend.

all else being equal, i really missed all this daylight we have now

Folks are spooked from this past winter. I've been getting inquiries on large amounts of firewood recently. Way earlier than usual. I guess the commander in Chief may have something to do with it.

Cooler conditions have returned to the region. Temperatures will likely top out in the 50s through Thursday. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will likely struggle to reach the lower 50s. Wednesday morning could see the low temperature approach 32° in New York City. Should the mercury reach 32°, New York City would see its second consecutive April with a freeze (last year's last freeze was April 9). The last time that happened was 2015 and 2016. Temperatures will return to the 60s on Friday. The warmth will extend into the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -7.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.535 today.

Please no

Could be an interesting night in southern Iowa. Some of the models are suggesting a very narrow swath of 6" or more of snow from a very intense stationary band of snow to develop.

Looks like El Nino gonna go boom too. Gonna be a hot summer it looks like... Might have to import water instead of oil... lol?

It looks like there’s been lower pressures around Tahiti but it seems we’re missing the high pressure around Darwin which isn’t allowing the SOI to really tank.

The ensembles continue to show 2.5-3" of rain across the area over the next two weeks. That's great as we head into the warm season, but it's a problem for the construction crew that has to re-grade the new stormwater wetland next to my house and then plant seed.

We haven't baked under a real death ridge since 2012. We're due.

Trying to figure out why it takes 3-5 days to warm up, but only 12 hours to get cold...

3-4 inches of windblown snow fell in a pretty short span today. Current temp is 19 with a forecast low of 8. The last single digit of the season...?

Well -10 isn't very strong. Those early March readings >+20 were strong. Will be interesting to see how the SOI responds to this Kelvin wave coming up.

The (not so) sci-fi version of this El Nino... It will rise to historic proportions, but ... no one saw the bigger issue coming - though in retrospect, really should have. Why? because it already happened once, in 2023. The whole planet surged, by almost .4 C spanning a 2.5 month period that spring, brining the planet perilously close to the theorized threshold of +1.5 C over the IR. Only this time ... by a whole degree C Such that not only are we at 2.5 over the Industrial Revolution entry mean, it is so crazy warm that relative ONI renders almost meaningless outside of the immediate tropical atmosphere. Vaguely coupling to the mid latitude pattern ( meaning weakly correlating) It's going to be the first panic year of this ongoing CC explosion, which just moves slower than human perception - geologically? It's detonating. 0 summer ice in 5 years. Roth slides into the ocean... Global tsunamis claims a billion lives

@StormchaserChuck1 Here comes the -SOI….

A fox just walked past my house with a fish in his/her mouth. Then headed down the street and into some woods. I wonder if there are kits. Idk if the fish was a catch or a find...but I want it to be a catch because that's much cooler. Looked fresh to me and intact.