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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 1214 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 TNZ012>017-035-036-045>047-050500- /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0011.251205T0000Z-251205T1200Z/ Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Morgan- Anderson-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter- Including the cities of Howard Quarter, Clinton, Smokey Junction, Sandlick, Norma, Slick Rock, Sneedville, Caryville, Mooresburg, Oak Ridge, Big South Fork National, Oneida, Kyles Ford, Bristol TN, Clairfield, Huntsville, Royal Blue, Springdale, Erwin, White Oak, Evanston, Treadway, Arthur, Kingsport, Limestone Cove, Lone Mountain, Elizabethton, High Point, Petros, Harrogate-Shawanee, Jellico, South Holston Dam, La Follette, Unicoi, Elk Valley, Fincastle, Pine Orchard, Elgin, and Hampton 1214 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed wintry precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch, along with a light glaze of ice. * WHERE...The northern Cumberland plateau and portions of the northern Tennessee valley near the Virginia border. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes.

Probably going to be the good ole compromise where we see the Euro probability amplify a bit more, but we see the GFS back up on any phase or interaction. That is going to be difficult to do within the flow but this could still dig a bit more

This thread is reminding me why I love summer: the long hours of daylight, the warm breezes, and not have to look at a stupidly-inflated Kuchera plot for 8 months.

I don’t mind at all. We always joke.

Up to 38/25. I doubt we will make it to 51 which is forecasted. Either way, this is an overnight quick-hitter. Looking forward to our next 2017-type storm here. 16 inches - What a great memory!

OK, that's enough. No more north shifts lol

We squall IMG_7116.mov

Once this stuff starts falling, we need a brave soul to post a thread or the "storm." It ain't gonna be me. LOL. The EB looms....

Temps in Kingsport range from 35-39F. It is a lot colder than I expected it to be.

I will take my inch and LOVE it.

12z euro trying for Sunday night. Maybe a C-1” deal. Esp eastern areas. Dig that northern stream a little more and we might pop something closer to GFS.

WWA up for Calvert, Charles and St. Mary's... but nothing further north. I can't believe the same setup from last year is repeating, albeit in a smaller form. If this keeps up, I think we're going to be the most hated sub-sub-forum in all of AmWx.

A far cry from 2015-16 worst winter ever when everyone was telling us to stop bitching lol.

Belleayre should be considered to be Upstate NY not NYC Metro - I know we have had this discussion before - most of NYC metro doesn't look like mid-winter with most of us not seeing a flake yet........

That’s a good point, it seems to really screw the Northeast. Sweet.

It isn't warm out there. The current HRRR has 1-2" over TRI w/ snow still falling at the end of the run. Both the 12z GFS and Euro have light amounts as well w/ the GFS having more. The NAM is pretty meh over TRI. ***Winter Weather Advisories are posted for northern areas. MRX has seen the 12z suite.***

Squall on the doorstep.

MU weighs in on the diminishing snow chances: MJO activity in Phase 8 and a weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) will continue to support unseasonably cold conditions, on average, through the end of December. As for snow, the risk is "cold & dry". However, this pattern has a shelf life, & I expect a major January Thaw.

i know for sure that @CoastalWx is extremely happy for you

Im looking out the window beyond my Christmas decorations at a glistening blanket of snow. I can think of worse scenarios to be in in early December. And no, that doesn't mean i dont want a big storm too

Looking ahead to next week - models keep going back and forth with two waves. Tuesday's seems to be fizzling out but Wednesday/Thursday could be a quick dumper.

Us northern tier folks just can’t win anymore. It’s either south of us or so far north it doesn’t matter. Congrats dc south crew.

The one time I was rooting against snow. Scheduled to take 9am bus from Vienna up to NYC tomorrow morning to celebrate my birthday this weekend.

12z Euro-AIFS (only has 10:1 on PW... so not Kuchera)

Moline IL set all.time low season snow last winter (8.2") and passed that total thus year in NOVEMBER