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Man, the 12z GFS is just barely missing on some decent chances. By 258 and just barely in fantasy land, the 12z GFS looks very similar to its AI counterpart. Jan 17 is kind of a timeframe I have circles when the base of the trough flattens out, and allows for storms to slide across.

Tried to upload the GFS AI loop but alas. Either way, I like the evolution it shows. We lose our PNA a little bit for some time but cold really dumps from the lakes south. There’s several instances where the trough orientation digs sharply.

They would’ve jumped by now.

The 2 weeks in Jan 1999 2nd-15th. Epic! 40”+ 27” depth at one point.

Like I said surgery on the 14th lol .

Captain of chaos.

My now dead neighbor in Queens when we went out to shovel “nothing special here. just a path.” As a kid, I knew this was extraordinary then. That was really the first in a parade of epic storms that spanned the next 20 years in the NYC area. and if you lived in Queens back then, you remember that snow removal in New York City was much more primitive than it is now, even though it wasn’t that long ago. A lot less salt was used and the secondary and tertiary streets sometimes took days to get cleared. we lived on a secondary street in Whitestone and during those big storms we got a plow width and nothing more. Nowadays that would never happen

The 12z ICON buckled the jet further west than the 12z GFS. I wouldn't be surprised to actually see a cutter in that time frame...that is how "off" that run was Jan14-15 on the 12z GFS.

torching

I will say the 12z GFS still rotates a lot of energy at 500 through the northern stream. It barely missed a phases right there w/ the southern stream. The southern stream energy was just slightly ahead. I wonder if that is going to end up being a storm?

I must say you have a proclivity for posting amusing gifs

GFS has no snow through 384 on it's last several runs and CMC has nothing through 240 -- fun times!

Looks like we are going to see this cycle back through one more time w/ the retrograding ridge...might be two more times. I think February, w/ at least one pause, could be an interesting month. Did you see the end of the 12z AI GFS...that is a HUGE trough. I suspect we see a ridge pop over the East at that time, but the AI GFS isn't on board with w that idea quite yet. That trough is how record lows are broken. Huge grains of salt at this range. 12z GFS looks pretty dry so far. The trough is slightly too far to the East.

Hey guys i just added this storm and Dec 31-Jan 1st light snow/squall event to the archive with snowfall maps radar and more. They're in the main archive and a dedicated Winter 25-26 page as well https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/storm-archive https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/winter-25-26

I had a Compaq

I would agree, but we still seem to be mired in the "what can go wrong, will go wrong"-101-ways-to-not-snow regime. I think we are transition out of that here in the 2nd half of the decade given the cold, but obviously still a ways to go given the lack of snow and residence time of the MJO in phase 8.

it’s possible but we need to wait and see. 2014-2015 was headed that way until it fizzled out in the fall. Ultimately, we did go strong/super the following year (15-16). 23-24 was pretty much inevitable that it would be strong due to all of the warmth held up in the west pac after 3 nina’s.

Saturday 12Z models locked in and never wavered.

Give it time. We still have 43 minutes.

Fight fight fight

Again, that is your perception of it......Do I think your opinions are grounded in truth, absolutely. Do I think that your passion for the subject matter pushes the bounds of attribution? Yup. Does that necessarily mean they are incorrect? Nope. But if you were to ever err, it would be on the side of too much CC attribution, not too less. Honestly all I meant by proclivity was a passion....as in a proclivity to inject the topic into subject matter. You feel very strongly about CC.....I have a proclivity for dialogue concerning winter.....ie I am very passionate about it and connect it to other topics more so than the average bear.

models were all south except the Euro-I remember Sat AM they still had us at a miss. By the PM it was 6-12 and winter storm warning.

I don't believe you are as fair as you think you are when exchanges teeter. You get combative dude. sorry. You're clearly being evasive about the notion that you choose to use words that frankly, ...anyone with a modicum of intelligence doesn't really need to read into anything to understand your attempt. And when called out, that's when this derailed - I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt - mainly because I do the same thing to people ... LOL. It's not always on purpose. Whatever look, I think you need to do some reading. It doesn't appear you have enough exposure to the accredited science on matter. If so, perhaps you'd be less inclined to accuse people of having CC biases -

Yes I know what performance is. All the things you mention and more will improve significantly with solid state batteries. The US market doesn't tell you much about EV performance because the best EVs come from China, not the US, and those vehicles are excluded from the US market. However this new announcement may allow other countries to catch-up or even leapfrog China. We will see.

Not a clue yet. Wayyyy too early