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I like to rely more on the ECMWF Nino plumes model than the CFS but we only get one update a month. My guess is that it will show another increase in ONI with the May 5th release as it initializes the current near record OHC for so early in the season. It may be that the Nino 1+2 regions not fully cooling off from the last very strong event in 2023-2024 could have something to do with the El Niño coming in so strong with only a 3 year gap between events. Notice that 2025 was the first full year following an El Niño so strong that stayed warm off of South America. Go back to the previous higher end events since the early 1970s and you will see they all significantly cooled compared to what happened in 2025. Also note how much warmer the entire North Pacific remained.

Just as I suspected. All the precip north of ATL.

41 when I left the house. A lot of classic coolish spring type days ahead. Love it.

Yeah just threw down the seed right before the soaking rain over the weekend. Guess we’ll see.

2 hours of vivid lightning and thunder. Only 0.25” of rain. I bet this has started fires.

The climate has had three shifts to the warmer since 2009-2010. Our summers became warmer beginning with the 2010 summer. We haven’t had any cooler summers against the long term average like in 2009 or earlier since then which we would normally get every several years. The only three cooler summers since then against the recent much warmer means like 2023, 2017, and 2014 have been closer to or a little warmer than the older long term average. Most of the summers since then have been near the top rankings for warmth. Starting with December 2015, the U.S. winters have become much warmer to the point where we have seen many new top warmest winters for the CONUS and no significantly colder ones since then. The most recent temperature jump in 2023-2024 produced the #1 warmest CONUS winter on record that winter and the #2 warmest winter this year in 2025-2026. The concern going forward is that we will get another baseline temperature jump with this developing very strong El Niño for 2026-2027 that will just add to the previous ones since 2015-2016. I can fully understand your point of view that the climate has not rapidly changed. Since it’s human nature to normalize the recent 3-7 of weather as nothing unusual. Plus it may not be that obvious when we get used to more Mid-Atlantic style temperatures like used to be normal for VA.

This was an extremely violent storm through here. I'm exhausted. Part 2 tonight. I'm thinking I won't have my phone near me. The alerts were insane. I'm one tired old lady. :-/

40.8F for the morning low. .

Stop complaining. We do need the rain!

Big bust for tors. PDS tor watch and MEH. When the PDS watch was issued, it took several hours even to have a single tstm in it!

These storms are big at the border. Lots of lightening and torrential rainfall.

Yep. Subsurface anomalies are over +8C now. We have left 1972-73, 1982-83 and 2015-16 in the dust. The only El Niño even comparable to being this warm this early in the subsurface is the 1997-98 super El Niño. And the record DWKW has just begun to propagate east And there are more WWBs to come….

Heavy rain and storms rolling in.

Looks like the Euro whiffed on the light rain, thank goodness. We are getting a heavy thunderstorm currently.

'Can definitely believe all the clear-air CG lightning strikes. Considering all the severe hail dumping that unfolded in DFW Saturday night. But despite what NWS claims, those more powerful +CG strikes originating from near the tops of storms can definitely strike more than 15 miles away, as I've seen before.

I recently read a book on ancient Rome- did you know the “kids these days” routine can even be found back then?

ARC137-280400- /O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-260428T0400Z/ Stone AR- 1046 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN STONE COUNTY... At 1046 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Mountain View, moving east at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! Yep, this setup had all the classic signs. Just before I hit the hay, the warnings burgeon and the monsters emerge.

My dad said he measured an inch of rain in his bucket. Again, .3in of rain at Newport News International Airport.

I agree. The CAM's were stacking these semi discreet bows like Civil War regiment lines for the last 48hrs whereas the lower res models were playing the synoptic game. Think the CAM's won (maybe not the HRRR, it was just wonky). Some of them looked like late June/July ridge riding cold pool driven bows. Definitely not enough spacing for any sups to bust and run. There's still 80/70's down south and a definite nocturnal threat ongoing down there. Kinda the price we pay in Spring for these setups. We need wide open warm sectors all morning and day with just enough capping to allow more surface based initiation. Sux to waste a stout EML that worked its way this far East. Those will be harder and harder to come by as we move into mid June.

46F in the northern valleys, but the sandy SE MA soil is radiating better so far. Low-40s there.

Boomers have been running this country since 1993 - and look where we are. So don't blame it on us.

Hollabaughs sounds less catastrophic- let’s hope that’s true

Yup...28F to 74F at BML today. Love to see it.

As expected it was a non-event for the entire DVN cwa. Another bullet dodged.