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29/23, hoping that light precip just to my west makes it in here as frozen. 50s on Christmas Eve and a cold rain on Christmas Day, a true holiday of yore being projected at this point.

Yep the annual Xmas week torch. You can set a clock to it.

Fields looking about cooked but we will see what daylight brings. Biggest tragedy, these 24-hour cheap shots. Mama Said https://youtu.be/yMGWQKn9Ers?si=de4RPur-3z1MyG5f

34 and rain snow mix so far this morning. Roads just slushy.

30 with flurries in the Cane River Valley right now. That's interesting considering it's partly cloudy. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Unless we get the 4” in Central Park the stats for La Niña show mark the difference between the good and bad Nina outcomes, have to think this one would follow that trend. Central Park had 3.1” last Dec I believe and still ended way below average for snow.

Same. Parking lot puddles and bare ground rearing its head again. Second half of December torch. December 2013 played out kind of similar too. Fingers crossed January and February are epic.

Another WWA out here in Berks, yes let’s go, starting out as the Winter of Yore.

Yeah, we can't leave December without at least an inch or two of snow. Cold and snowless Decembers are the absolute worst. 2022-23 is a very good example. I can't remember a time when a cold and low snow December produced a great rest of the winter season.

I have to think there’s something here with how cold it’s been. It’ll probably be the minor 1-2” clipper but something to cover the ground at least which we got last Dec. But like you said who knows.

Two decent runs from the GFS for the possible lowlands event on Sunday. It gives the lowlands south of Baltimore 2-3/2-4. It would be nice to score again before the pattern flips to who knows what.

From what I can tell on the 6z GFS, the warmth rolls in and the warmth rolls out w/ each cold front. The warmth in the medium/LR is originating from a chinook. Whether that is MJO related, feel free to debate. However, as we have seen with other warmups, the warmth on deterministic models is being eroded into shorter timeframes as it gets closer. At one point, medium range modeling had the Dec 14th system moderated to a minor cold front passage. As is, we likely see very cold wind chills with this and temps in the lower teens and upper single digits in portions of NE TN. The mountains will be below zero. Just using the 6z GFS which looks reasonable. Temps warm on Dec18th and 19th before another cool front arrives. Then temps warm from Dec 21-24, before the GFS slams the door on it. The danger w/ this Dec 20th front is that modeling could be too weak. The 0z CMC has what looks to be an anafront line up in the Plains during that time. A trend I have noticed w/ modeling is that cold fronts are modeled as pretty vigorous at range. Then, they are moderated...then w/ about 7-10 days to go...the are much colder yet again. Just combing through ensembles this AM...the 0z GEFS erases the aforementioned chinook warmth by Dec 26. The 6z GEFS is still rolling. The 0z CFSv2 basically repeated the current pattern through the entire run. It has a strong cold shot to end December and begin January. More on that later if 6z and 12z support that run. The trend we have been seeing for weeks is modeling which moderates temps of warmth which rolls through. TRI is -5.4F for the month so far.

All ensembles have a very mild pattern coming up

this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling

Yeah it was a long shot. Still may see a few mangled flakes but nothing interesting. At least the morning commute won't be a disaster. I think we all knew at some point in December this would flip, that's Nina climo to some degree and patterns break down in general. Question is what happens afterwards into January. Shame we couldn't keep the cold around one more week and instead it gets gross just in time for Christmas.

this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling

If the solution ends up verifying pretty close to the AI models, that would definitely be a big win for them. They’ve been way steadier than the regular OP runs.

hard to believe how cold its been and, yet we get rain later today here

So in other words its a miss

This is the GFES ext from last night....this is its 35d map.

I think this current climate regime just makes classic east coast storms very difficult. Flow is too fast, things don’t properly phase anymore, everything cuts inland or gets shredded, but south of I-70 can catch a break with these flat southern sliders (and sometimes even north central MD gets an occasional 3-5” event that 40N misses out on, but just not the elusive warning criteria storm). Trust me, north central MD is not the only place that’s been missing out.

National Weather Service Morristown TN 611 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 609 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Dry and warmer to start today, before a cold front arrival later tonight. Gusty winds ahead of the front for the forecast area. Wind Advisory in effect for all except the southern part of the forecast area. - NW flow snow event expected later today through early Thursday with accumulating snow over parts of the Southern Appalachians and higher terrain of southwest Virgina. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. - We will warm up again late week with low chances of precipitation across the north. - Stronger cold front Sunday into Monday will considerably drop temperatures. Lows in the teens with some single digits Monday morning. Cold wind chills also possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1138 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 The forecast for today has come into better agreement over Wind Advisory level winds for everywhere north of the southern valley and southern plateau later today. As well as an accumulating snow event for northwest flow prone locations of the forecast area; Southern Appalachians and parts of southwest Virginia. Temperatures will be warmer today, however, cloud cover will be on the rise. Almost advisory level winds are being observed at Cove Mountain with gusts in the upper 30s at the time of this discussion. A WSW LLJ will increase into the overnight hours, bringing increasing winds to the higher terrain. Later in the day as mixing occurs, the gusty conditions will translate to the surface for the lower elevations, hence the advisory covering the day-time. A heavier weighted blend of the HREF/RRFS was used to capture the usually overperforming SWly winds for the valley. Gusty winds will continue into Thursday morning for the higher terrain, slowly decreasing behind the FROPA. A Wind Advisory is in effect later this morning first beginning in the mountains, expanding to the lower elevations, later finishing for the mountains early tomorrow. Confidence has also increased on higher snowfall amounts for the higher terrain with the latest guidance. The day will start warm, but temperatures will fall coinciding with the cold front later this evening. Rain will transition to a rain/snow mix, and then eventually all snow for elevations primarily above 2500 feet. Low-level moisture, NW winds, and temperatures below freezing are evident on forecast soundings, all supporting northwest flow snow. Snow will end early to mid Thursday when low-level winds drop off and lose the NWly component. Total snowfall accumulations will generally be 1 to 3 inches with higher mountain tops possibly seeing above that, for example, LeConte may see up to 5 inches. It`s possible some light snowfall may be seen across lower elevations of the northern valley and plateau, but is generally not favorable with NWly flow due to more downsloping on the valley side, which means drier. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued and will begin mid-day, running 24 hours highlighting the potential for the aforementioned areas. Following the snow`s exit Thursday, a short cool-down can be expected with drier conditions throughout the day and decreasing cloud cover. However, precipitation from a weak system will bring increased chances to northern parts of the CWA Friday. Meanwhile, upper heights will be rising which will bring the warmer temperatures back for Friday and Saturday. Later this weekend becomes a bit complicated in regards to more precipitation due to potential interaction of southern and northern stream systems, but the one thing models agree on, is a substantial drop in temperatures Sunday into early Monday. Strong high pressure is expected to barrel its way through, originating from Alaska and Western Canada, where temperatures there have been in the 50s below at night, but we will not see that here. Monday morning lows are currently forecast to be in the teens with some single digits for the highest elevations and parts of southwest Virginia. Wind appears will be on the decline once we get later in the night Sunday into Monday, which is good news and may suppress what could be much worse wind chills. High pressure will eventually shift eastward but will keep us dry through at least early Tuesday.

Sometimes when we look at weather in the d10-15, we miss the stuff right in front of us. Light snow is possible tonight across NE TN and SW VA(assuming that also means SE KY). Then, again on Friday w/ a slightly more "vigorous" system. WWAs have been hoisted for portions of those areas for tonight - mainly higher elevations.

We haven’t had a December shoutout since 1895 when the first 15 days of the month were as cold as this year is going to be. Would be a new record for wasted December cold in the modern era. But nothing really surprises me anymore due to how extreme the Pacific Jet has become since 2018-2019.

That doesn’t look bad at all…been super steady with that look. Gonna be very interesting to see if they win this battle.