All Activity

Its October Enjoy the rain and wind

Just a little below average for this time of year since the Northern Hemisphere is so warm.

You wouldn’t be saying that a month from now…

There has been a northeast shift on the models overnight. The Google DeepMind ensembles have come into much better agreement that Melissa will now get pulled northeastward first before it turns west. All of yesterday's tracks that went well southwest of Jamaica are gone.

You f’ed it up with your blow down BS yesterday. That’s the kiss of death for sure.

Lmao….one says interesting, one says gone. Nothing like seeing ENTIRELY different things. Just give us a good nor’easter…to heck with Melissa.

Another boring coastal . Awesome

The last real -EPO/-WPO winter was 2014-15. We did get a nice -WPO interval in winter 2021-22: 2021 11 04 -1.31 2021 11 05 -20.98 2021 11 06 -7.63 2021 11 07 3.39 2021 11 08 8.04 2021 11 09 -32.10 2021 11 10 -93.68 2021 11 11 -125.89 2021 11 12 -99.82 2021 11 13 -60.12 2021 11 14 -25.64 2021 11 15 -13.71 2021 11 16 -25.31 2021 11 17 -40.49 2021 11 18 -41.37 2021 11 19 -65.80 2021 11 20 -101.84 2021 11 21 -89.64 2021 11 22 -89.38 2021 11 23 -114.97 2021 11 24 -60.54 2021 11 25 3.63 2021 11 26 -8.78 2021 11 27 -23.90 2021 11 28 18.52 2021 11 29 60.52 2021 11 30 73.79 2021 12 01 44.70 2021 12 02 10.69 2021 12 03 57.56 2021 12 04 -11.29 2021 12 05 47.68 2021 12 06 140.61 2021 12 07 152.65 2021 12 08 144.81 2021 12 09 142.25 2021 12 10 94.87 2021 12 11 5.18 2021 12 12 -42.68 2021 12 13 -20.06 2021 12 14 17.25 2021 12 15 27.18 2021 12 16 42.72 2021 12 17 37.61 2021 12 18 -16.18 2021 12 19 -65.67 2021 12 20 -86.62 2021 12 21 -167.98 2021 12 22 -157.53 2021 12 23 -155.67 2021 12 24 -183.65 2021 12 25 -150.32 2021 12 26 -103.17 2021 12 27 -76.73 2021 12 28 -43.84 2021 12 29 -17.47 2021 12 30 -37.54 2021 12 31 -58.02 2022 01 01 -90.22 2022 01 02 -180.61 2022 01 03 -213.31 2022 01 04 -213.68 2022 01 05 -221.87 2022 01 06 -187.22 2022 01 07 -144.26 2022 01 08 -122.83 2022 01 09 -86.36 2022 01 10 -42.81 2022 01 11 -19.79 2022 01 12 -27.41 2022 01 13 -27.77 2022 01 14 -27.47 2022 01 15 -54.76 2022 01 16 -89.03 2022 01 17 -127.34 2022 01 18 -163.56 2022 01 19 -171.84 2022 01 20 -163.62 2022 01 21 -108.57 2022 01 22 -35.04 2022 01 23 4.34 2022 01 24 40.36 2022 01 25 34.18 2022 01 26 -41.09 2022 01 27 -73.77 2022 01 28 -77.14 2022 01 29 -81.85 2022 01 30 -99.66 2022 01 31 -128.64 2022 02 01 -154.42 2022 02 02 -138.45 2022 02 03 -85.60 2022 02 04 -35.37 2022 02 05 -38.33 2022 02 06 -28.75 2022 02 07 7.18 2022 02 08 -1.09 2022 02 09 -8.10 2022 02 10 -67.71 2022 02 11 -122.15 2022 02 12 -142.13 2022 02 13 -179.43 2022 02 14 -159.40 2022 02 15 -172.53 2022 02 16 -148.66 2022 02 17 -92.58 2022 02 18 -62.75 2022 02 19 -70.66 2022 02 20 -104.45 2022 02 21 -75.72 2022 02 22 -37.88 2022 02 23 -11.48

Lol what a mess. Just two days ago GFS thought this would be a bonafide category 2 hurricane.

Strong blocking regimes often result in cooler than normal conditions, even at this time of year when wave lengths are shorter. The strongly negative NAO is having an influence. The NAO has now been at or below -1.000 for six consecutive days and is forecast to remain between -2.000 and -1.000 through the rest of the month. Select Mean Temperature Data for October 22-31, 1980-2024: NAO -2.000 to -1.000: 51.0° All Other Cases: 55.0° 1980-2024 Mean: 54.3°

Good call from back on October 14 by yourself.

None of the models show it hitting the coast anymore. Now we track the coastal.

40° here. Hoping to get the first frost of the season tonight, but we’ll see.

And to start November. Good coastal signal showing up

She gone but not the coastal.

echoing the general sentiment... but, TC entanglement was never likely. It was in fact unlikely (... but even a long shot can give the addicts a dopamine pop. Ha ha). The emerging consensus explains why that is. No issues with letting that go. With that said, there is still a signal for an EC impact/ Nor'easter, regardless of those noisy GGEM solutions. Mainly upper M/A and NE this go. In fact, the GGEM got hugely distracted somehow and ventured off from ... every form of modelling technology I can find last night and isn't used. Wildly divorced from consensus. Meanwhile, the GFS and Euro being well below 980 mb under deep forcing kinematics, fits both ens means, and the numerical telecon deltas. Circumstantially, whilst there's lingering +PP hanging over N of Maine like that. Heh, bit of a high surf/coastal flood enthusiasts 'wet' dream (see what I did there) Also, a lot of rain over terrain enhancing along the inevitable CCB axis. Kind of a 'scary' setting for Halloween

Ah, you sound like you may suffer from FOMO

42.3. Crisp morning

The NHC also isn’t biting on the quick escape east track for Melissa. Right now, if Melissa misses it appears consensus is because of a poor phasing; and not the GFS scenario.

We haven't had a catastrophic event in a while..,..I'm in.

The 6z GEFS was a pretty sizable shift towards the EPS with higher mid level heights over the western Atlantic .

Kind of seeing the outlines of typical Nina winter storm disappointment in late next weeks action. Still a good chance we get some rain, but you can see how we get fringed in almost every direction. It’s a multi-low pressure sequence. First the southern stream low Sunday-Thesday is pretty consistent across guidance that it passes to our south and scoots out to sea. Then the strong northern stream shortwave dives in and generates a coastal low somewhere. How and where and if any juice from Melissa gets involved is very TBD. But guidance (0z euro) is throwing out various solutions that mostly skip over us. Some still deluge us as well. But what’s Nina climo for late developing coastal lows near our latitude?? Yeah…

It looks like models have generally below normal temps in the east for the remainder of the month.

The NWS has issued a Frost Advisory for tonight for the entire area. However, many spots below 500 ft ASL in Chester County have already seen multiple freezing mornings. Those valley spots may again see freezing temperatures while some higher spots could see some frost but likely staying above freezing. For the rest of October, we should see below normal temperatures with daytime highs falling from the upper 50's today to the low 50's for highs by the start of the new work week. Lows should be frosty most mornings with a widespread freeze possible by next Monday and Tuesday mornings. We stay dry until our next chance of showers on Tuesday night.

The NWS has issued a Frost Advisory for tonight for the entire area. However, many spots below 500 ft ASL in Chester County have already seen multiple freezing mornings. Those valley spots may again see freezing temperatures while some higher spots could see some frost but likely staying above freezing. For the rest of October, we should see below normal temperatures with daytime highs falling from the upper 50's today to the low 50's for highs by the start of the new work week. Lows should be frosty most mornings with a widespread freeze possible by next Monday and Tuesday mornings. We stay dry until our next chance of showers on Tuesday night.