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CMC at 90 has 1003 primary slightly n of 12z and is in southern ohio. warm nose is there

The certainly will add more definition to the banding aspects of the storm, but even those can shift around up to the immediate term. HRRR can be useful inside 8 hrs and check how it is handling the situation. I’m waiting to see the thermals on the NAM Nest for this one. That is the model that should help pin point advancement of the warm layers and everything. CAMs will be helpful, but we are a ways from that. For now, putting a lot of stock in EC, ECENS, AIFS, NBM, and some GFS/CMC mixed in.

00z CMC total qpf near DCA was 2" lol

Anyone with the parallel Canadian, please post. Thank you!

Even though the 00z GFS had some sleet (not much) it still absolutely dumped us. Some sleet is not game over for DC/NOVA/MD.

No way. It’s all frozen. A long duration sleet storm will also be cool. Nothing shows rain which is nice.

This is a tough one to watch go but it sure looks like a trend to end in significant rain up the valley, not sure anyone east tn will have snow to show by the end.

GFS LP drops 22mb in 24 hours. Only a wee bit shy of a bomb, and with that big high over Quebec, there would be some wind.

It’s not a bad model. But when it’s wrong it’s usually too amped, not the other way around.

00Z GGEM Total QPF - storm

More hours before changing over. And no hours with rain. But alas.

Thanks for all of the updates, guys! Living vicariously through you from Ft. Lauderdale where it's currently 71/58. Off to Miami tomorrow morning.

Same result? I know you're trolling but man, that GFS run is substantially better for the forum as a whole. And no, I'm not just saying that because I happen to be on the right side of this pixel

I would expect to wake up to a winter storm watch unless the euro instills any doubts.

They can keep that data coming haha. It doesn’t get much better than that for a well timed and positioned handoff to the coastal low to put PA in the best snows.

Oh I agree its a 90% plus likelihood but I think a pathway exists when we have such complex interactions for the models to shift some more. Once again I think all synoptic stuff is settled by tomorrow 12z (which is why I'll make my final analysis then)

Did you ask it to calculate with the following 7 days in the single digits!!

0Z CMC probably the ugliest run I've seen so far for NYC/LI in the last 2 days of runs.

Yup did a good job here last week

What a steal to get him. Big time talent.

Yes, amazing to see with that secondary LP.

That gfs run was like a naming. Insane