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Sub-zero dew points coming into western MD. Cold, dry air.

And cad is often under modeled so imo no matter how the sneaky 700 layer taints the slightest adjustments for cad will only show up tomorrow nooners and beyond. primary keeps making its press known, then we’ve got a battle. while this is a tough line I still like that the waa is coming at us and not straight up from the south. Not abandoning what I’ve been feeling for days. If I’m wrong, so be it. Gonna b a great event even if we ping down here.

Louis was nervous about the inland sfc low tracking to Cleveland. I was never that far-out but I was very much on the "850 Low to the OHV" Train, which... ya know.

Which one lol

I think NWS has mentioned it to the south since there is a chance of both wetter snow and ice

GFS gonna win this war [emoji23] .

EPS bumping up

Feeling confident still for my 12.4” MDT call

I’m not saying it won’t be good, but most of us have seen a dozen or more bigger events in our lives. Im glad you are going to get crushed.

Throw the RAP out

Not sure if this means much for 00z but sref is coming south. we are not too far from possibly getting this thing south of the mountains. But my gut tells me we won't quite make it and it'll ride the apps

The amount of people I have heard talking about wide spread power outages… not sure who is selling that narrative. .

You white as hell

And there is a lot of it! Hi this morning was 28 and it's now 11 imby (was 18 around 5:30).

Exactly.

I had food delivered this morning. Just a few things but I wasnt going to the grocery store for them.

Look where the mid level low is before it tries to redvelop.

This is a nice storm for a lot of people let's wrap it up

What makes me nervous is the Triad always is the coldest in wedge situations (even compared to 50 miles west), that last hand of heavy rain may come through with temps in the mid 20s. No bueno

@wxmeddler I think bc you let us know about the Dr U convo you were gonna be low. I sorta expected that too, unfairly.

Hurricane recon flying in the Gulf and off the Cali coast getting more data. .

Yeah, the biggest reason this is higher end despite being a SWFE is the airmass and amount of moisture involved. You try and rip that type of gulf moisture up over the top of an arctic airmass this cold, you're going to get fireworks....and it's also kind of an ideal angle with the broad trough...so the duration is decent for a SWFE....instead of like 6 hours and out, we're more like 10-12 hours before the upper midlevels start to dryslot. You can also throw in some local enhancers with this airmass like OES and a CF....the CF helped you in a system like 12/16/07 and it might help you again. So we could easily see widespread 10-16/12-18 from that. I think a lot of the 20"+ talk is overhyped at the moment, especially since Monday is looking less onshore flow if this ticks north....but there is still the chance someone could grab 20 if we trend that Monday position a bit further south and prolong onshore flow.

Imma pass out early tonight so I can be ready for tomm. Got a feeling we ain't getting much sleep this upcoming period

I can go lower if u want.. Trend last 12 hours seems fairly clear that the cold front is over-performing a bit. Not too surprising, but even an hour or three of extra CAD really bumps the totals up when you're dealing with up to 2" hr rates.