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https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/2013605353305317530?s=20

Last two runs of the (FANTASY RANGE) NAM have shown a disturbance to our south on Friday. There was some support for the idea on the Euro too.

They may be right from a wish casting perspective in regards to the northern extent of the precip, but that's it. This only can go so far north with a 1050mb high sitting in Iowa starting Friday lol.

I’ve done some -20, -30 stuff at Jay. Crazy cold man

Not often do you see the Positive Snow depth change end up greater than the total accumulation: I feel like this really accentuates the potential this storm brings with the cold air dynamics/ snow growth.

Yea, sensing the same. I think this is 6-12 due to high ratios for us while those to our south and east are 1-2 ft+. But we do still have time. There was a lot of north movement esp by GFS and feel that may halt today. But then I think closer to weekend we may see another push north.

We’ve got that and then some

That QPF verification is neat to see. As I believe you implied, QPF is likely the best, accessible option for verification at this point and what you posted above certainly supports that. Going to be interesting to see what kind of consistency the AI models can bring over time. Thanks for putting this thread together and updating it.

1989 was the first year I skied there. Oddly my coldest skiing weather. Close to -40F. December 1989.

Out of our area-but the 0z Euro has close to 3 inches of ZR in the south!

We don’t need hits quite yet, just positive trends

Yeah…wish we had the dgex to finish that run hah

get to the chopppppaaaa

Well, a couple days ago…it looked like a straight forward big overrunning deal. That’s not completely the case anymore. So it has trended into something more complex.

Scottie, I am sorry to hear that brother. Praying that God brings you new opportunities and the strength needed to get through this. Let us know how we can help you.

Thank you guys, means a lot. .

How bout we get it to snow first, worry about winds later.

Sweetwater. I’ve worked for this company for 8 years. Customers just aren’t buying fiberglass anymore. .

At 81hrs, Nam incredibly similar to 6z Euro

If the ice arrives as progged it could be DAYS without power. Im not concerned as Ive got wood and a real fireplace, but heating is the only real issue around here. Food can sit in the garage or on the patio with these temps and probably not ruin. The Ice is not something we deal with down here and if we get even a half an inch it will be devastating, particularly if its over such a wide area. The other danger is trees around the house. Ive got a few large Pines in front, but they are very healthy and mostly straight. Get enough Ice load and a little wind and that wont mean much.

With such a sustained, power ful press of arctic air coming down, I'm not sure how further north this climbs. In some sense, this reminds me of the December 2009 snow event for PA. There was the last second nudge north that brough warning level snowfall (6"+) to the southern tier, but the cutoff was sharp. In eastern PA, Allentown was almost smoking cirrus while it was piling up in Philly and Lancaster.

12z should be interesting.. still pretty far out and wouldn't lock anything in but im liking the trends..

Where convection develops and blossoms too is going to play a big role in where sfc low either re-develops or rapidly begins to strengthen. If convection can develop rapidly off the SC coast and be more consolidated (MCS like) this would bode very well for pumping up heights northeast of it. I kind of think this may be in the ballpark of what the 0z Euro was doing...but there is also the whole northern branch to consider. There is just so many moving pieces with this and so many smaller scale processes which are going to play big roles.

Agree, and in our favor for more snow/sleet.

Well, we do know the 500mb evolution that we see today, won’t be 100% correct, so we know that. What those changes entail, that’s what we dont know.