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That was also an 18hr forecast. Kill the horse, send it to the glue factory.

Weather related: a weaker polar vortex = colder air in New England, if I read this correctly. https://www.wbur.org/news/2025/11/21/polar-vortex-what-to-know-new-england-boston-december?utm_source=npr.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=local_headlines&utm_content=homepage

48 hr forecast from the Euro. Whoops.

Any estimates on when they plan to open?

You're not going to get a below average temp pattern with that upper latitude and Pacific H5. That's a +2 +nao and developing -pna.. it's going to flux the SE ridge after unless the models are wrong about those 2 patterns. CFS MJO? I'd look more at the plots bluewave posted above.

Obviously way too early to declare victory, but if this SPV progression verifies, at least the December ideas in your winter forecast are going to be very good. Paul Roundy is also in agreement with you that the PNA goes negative/RNA once we start getting towards mid-December based on the expected progression of low frequency tropical convective forcing….. ^ “This morning's zonal GPH anomaly plot + GFS forecast, showing the strato PV disturbance peaking during the week/10 days, and reaching down to about 50 hPa. There appears to be some propagation to lower levels later on, but the models contrast sharply in this regard, with ECM showing a re-strengthening of the PV in the same timeframe. It aligns with the overall trend observed, with the current PV displacement resulting from a stronger strato anticyclone over Alaska/Canada, and the vortex core shifting over Siberia. After that, ENS members show a possible re-centering over the Arctic, with the anticyclonic area losing intensity and effects over the PV. We'll need to monitor what happens in the next two weeks or so.”

If you put this EPS in motion prior to the 360hr link below, the SER is getting squashed. Also, AO region looks good. Plus, beyond this period, the Eps extended shows movement into 8. Still not high confidence on the MJO, but Cfs2, which is an extension of the Gefs, has the MJO in 8 too. So there's evidence of positive steps in December, which is better than the opposite. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025112200&fh=360

Yesterdays 6z guidance didn’t even have rain here.

Fully nude ready to do leaves all day. Looking forward to a few crisp Pilsners and loud power tools all afternoon. .

Low of 46 with .26” of rain.

Unfortunately I think you're correct. Today is orientation day for the seasonal workers at Wisp and I'm getting the pbp of a seriously dour ski season outlook. They are warning folks they may not be able to provide 40 hours per week due to their forecast of a subpar season, much like 22-23. East of the Mississippi and south of I-90, there isn't even any fantasy snow to look at. I'm well aware of the calendar date today but I'm also well aware flashing red lights rarely become green arrows.

I remember seeing AI much further north and was thinking it was wrong. Let’s replace us all with machines baby.

Found @Jis burner account

Overnight GFS showing a rapid strengthening of the polar vortex after this episode. Yikes.

0.3”ish for me. Next Tuesday looks like the last rain of the month and probably another pretty light event.

That's at odds with the end of the EPS. You're posting a 1.5 day old model.

Of course thats a - EPO and its certainly not a western trough. Youre not going to have a - NAO when the polar vortex is in Eastern Canada . Also , this isnt a torch in 2nd week of December.

Tv Mets no rain past cape .

Nope. 12z had nothing yesterday.

0.14" overnight, 0.87" on the month. Continuing to be very dry.

It had rains to the pike

I like seeing High pressure set up in southern Quebec to feed in the cold.

Man let’s get these busts in winter.