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I told him the other day that the NAO has been verifying more positive than those d14 mean progs since mid Feb. Looks like the AO has since 3/1 too.

HRRR has snow flurries for Saturday

I tried +10 and disliked it lol. Now 110 and humidity is a problem. At that point, I’m moving to northern Cali and breaking even.

What a run Phoenix is on. 1 March 100° on record before they obliterate the record book with 8 straight. Up to 98° so far today.

this past Sunday night I witnessed the biggest hail in my life. Literally thought our windows were going to break. I think 1.5" was what they recorded. Hail? No thanks although I know it's very likely in this set up. off topic but the last three months has featured some pretty crazy weather for us starting with that big dog in late January, a widespread windstorm a few weeks back, the hottest day ever recorded in March a week ago, the hail storm last week, greatest temp drop in like 8 hours, (or something like that)... definitely hasn't been boring.

Managed 60.6° here despite no sun!

This was a fail. That's why long range forecasts shouldn't be taken seriously.

Jelly

Unironically posting a graph like that should get you banned from any scientific community ever. The absolute failure of even Stats 101-level thinking is abhorrent to a degree where it feels like Chesco is playing a persona.

here we go! getting a little windy, still a few hours to go.

72

72°

80 at home today

Any Tor threat with this is if a surface low can spin up with a strong enough W/NW flow (or super cell outflows, unlikely but non zero). Hell (hehe) the current surface low looks more like a strung out wave. Theres a stout SW around 700mb racing east out of Kansas/Nebraska with a surface reflection but even with it there's no backing flow yet. SPC addresses this in their latest write up. Backside elevated hailers with this moist HOT lol, surface air being flat out jammed upwards into the very cold air aloft by the strong CAA a bigger deal. Might see hail once every couple years where I live, seen it twice in a little more than a week. Last one (similar to this setup) covered the ground completely. Me know likey hail

Overcast but truck reading 70…feels fabulous.

77 here. 50 along the waterfront

Seems they're fighting seasonal change, huh I've seen something like this every spring around this time frankly going back years. It would be an interesting discussion to have with the modelers at NCEP...but it seems as though their physics are not integrating for steadily increasing heat input into the system. They just take whatever they see in the initialization, and then out in time they end up too cold So by the time we get to mid April the sun is like mid August. Hot as hell on sunny days. Sometime between now and 2.5 weeks .. I mean give it up. Only once or twice do I recall an air mass cold enough to offset that, way back prior to 2000 ... and these patterns in the current model depictions ain't it.

Thanks Dendrite. Ass here now with overcast.

That is amazing! Good for him.

Good way to start the season! My son had one last summer. Only 16 yrs old too.

A guy my son is playing with got a hole in 1.

76 now

77 push push

77! perfect!

Idk what's going to come of next winter, but this Stormsurf link has a lot of info and I've posted it before. Watching it the past 10-14 days, I'm not seeing off the Cfs links the things that were showing up back in 23/24. First of all, the SSTA graphs are starting to show a much weaker Nino. Likewise, as Chuck's mentioned, the SOI ain't cooperating. But what I find more compelling is the 3 month MJO forecast. The westerly wind anomalies represented by the yellow/red, seem to be stuck west of the dateline except for a brief intrusion east mid/late April-mid May. Moreover, there remains pockets of blue (easterly wind anomalies) scattered east of the dateline through the end of the forecast period in late June. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html I know it's early, but if that forecast doesn’t start showing some substantial changes, strong or super Niño forecasts look like a tough sell.