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WRAL's winter outlook says draw the shades and try again the following year lol.

Thanks for posting such beautiful photos. Probably one of the most in demand urban places in the U.S. that people want to move to. You are really lucky to be living in such a charming historic area. https://www.instagram.com/reel/DQZcBGhAEp7/

peek-a-boo....

some EPS members must be going wild

GEFS has a decent signal (median and mean shown below)

Likely a top 10% skiing December up north. Lots of early cold for snow making and plenty of natural snow chances. EPS coming in colder in that D10-12 timeframe. Trying to amplify that WPO ridging more. That’s a good sign if we can make that a theme going into this month.

In the spirit of regional warring, let's get the Cape and EMATT on the board first this winter (12/2-3) That should spice things up around here

It is pretty wild to see the 12z Euro as it does not get stuck loading endless troughs into the Southwest. It looks reasonable.

Aint that the truth.

Canadian is out and it's an ice storm... feel like the Canadian always goes ice. Temps are genuinely below freezing DC metro and east almost the whole event but it's close

Dec 5, 2005, Dec 5, 2009 and Dec 8, 2013 were winners for many. December used to be a light snow month.

FWIW - AI is more optimistic then the EPS again, so just assume the EPS shows none of this, basically. I'd say 12/50 are a "hit" for the window around the 3rd ... and that's being a tad generous

Ride or die 12z GDPS

The ski areas, at least those with enough water, have to be salivating a that OP run. Put down enough of a base that even the Grinch can't steal it.

If we’re dealing with an overrunning SWFE parade I’ll gladly pass. 95% of those are quick sleet to rain, just rain or slop to rain here while we watch I-90 get 6”+. Gradient patterns here are way more often than not lame crap. If we can get storms to slide SE of here or redevelop south of our latitude I’ll be more interested.

Oh we already know

The Euro looks very cold, esp towards the end of the run, we will likely have several chances at flakes the first half of December

Good times

The little bit of SER tends to lead me to believe that DC to New England is favored with some CAD potential for the carolinas

That progression would at least tend to help us based on the opinion of many mets. I did not see Don's post. However, I read here it was using some of the forecast data from the ECMWF weeklies which I do not trust. They can be wrong, and the last two winters when bullish on cold and snow were terrible. So I feel them showing increased warmth can be incorrect as well. JMHO.