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Upton's response (as of 2:15 AM) is to advertise the following for NYC: Low End: 1" Forecasted: 9" High End: 21" What's a 20" spread amongst friends?

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz - retired longtime TV met in Philly

That detail is probably shared by most guidance but the outbreak of moderate snow in KS is the main point, that is a good sign that phasing is underway and the energy is not currently that far behind the new location of the primary. It's a pressure jump situation for the primary but that factor alone is not telling me much because all guidance starts to develop the energy from the Carolinas.

I’ll add that I’m posting in this particular sub forum because I’m considering a chase to your specific area, depending on how things evolve over the next 12-24 hours.

I haven’t been paying enough attention to the minute details to fully understand what you mean here. The storm in southern UT-CO you’re referring to… what’s the significance of it dying out in NW TX to our storm and it unfolding more like the GFS? (TIA!)

I think that’s exactly right, and it really does put forecasters in a no-win spot. As we get inside about 48 hours, higher-resolution, short-range guidance starts to carry more weight. Models like the NAM, HRRR, and other mesoscale systems can better resolve banding, localized deformation zones, and boundary-layer thermal structure. That’s where snowfall totals can swing dramatically over small distances.

I have no idea who “hurricane” happens to be, but I’m not surprised that they are “hugging the EURO”—as it’s the main fall-back approach for most forecasters. That’s not meant to be demeaning, but rather a reflection of the general consensus due to the EURO’s general superior 500 mb scores. That said, there’s still an ample amount of time for relatively significant synoptic changes to materialize that could change the current model consensus considerably. Right now, a blended approach amongst the Euro/UKMET/GFS/CMC/NAM would be best, in my opinion—which doesn’t simply place the latest Euro solution above all others.

I saw someone mention this earlier, and I totally agree. If the mets predict 6-12 and we get 18-24, the general public won't really remember it. 6-12 is generally "enough" to get most people to avoid travel and change plans. However, if they predict 18-24 and we get 4, the public won't forget it. They will be unhappy that they adjusted their plans for a "minor" event and will call this a bust. It's a real tough spot to be in as a forecaster

Hopefully it’s a full rug pull up here so I don’t have to clear 3-5”

Did anyone post the 00z rufus?

Got a whole 3 hours of sleep last night

Agree. It has pretty consistently been between the GFS and Euro. The current 00z track is still great. What I'm not sure about, and maybe someone has the answer here, is how well it performs with QPF. My understanding is that the AI models run at a lower resolution and have a tendency to smooth things out. Assuming that is true, I would seriously consider track and rely on mesos to work out the QPF.

Euro isn’t like how it was back in the day, not saying its wrong but something has to give.

The problem is, what if we get 18 - 24 inches of snow and the TV mets keep calling for 6-12 because one model refuses to budge?

Every single model keeps bumping west. The EURO holds serve. Either every single weather model is seeing something that the EURO isn't, or every single weather model is wrong and the EURO is right. We're 36 hours away.... something is up with the EURO imho.

Hopefully the last half of March brings something meaningful. Until then looking zzzzz.

This is true at all. It showed some good runs.

Nice bump west with cmc ensembles

I see tell-tale signs that GFS will win this battle. Moderate snow in Kansas is the signature of the phasing northern stream energy. The storm that tracked through southern UT-CO more or less died out as a dry weak circulation over nw TX and the primary low is developing further east now, around s AR, n/c MS into nw AL. If there's any model compromise it will be along the lines of 3:1 GFS:Euro. But it may be even better than that.

Agree

These ranges and probabilities are hilarious and great. I'm definitely not invested in this one. I'm solely rooting for inverted trough action. Those can be super sneaky good. Wasn't it in 2016 that one hit around Pittsburgh giving them double the forecast amount from hours prior? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

EPS is a couple of inches less....can't have it both ways...some of the same people calling east "trend" were the same people defining a trend as "3 consecutive runs" earlier today when everything was coming west. If this keeps up through 12z tomorrow, then time to panic.

The Euro is an outlier but this is the reason why forecasters aren't jumping on the high end numbers quite yet because there's still time for this to trend east. It looks like a significant snow at the very least but I don't think a historic storm is a lock quite yet. I think 8-12+ is a good call right now

03z 21z On a positive note, SREF mean has improved.

I kind of think you're speaking from a NNE "outside looking in" perspective...SNE is getting smoked IMO....OP wobbles not withstanding.