All Activity

I don't see a big warm up. Maybe we get warmer near the 20th? The warm ups 10+ days out have been muted as we get closer.

A few spots and one ASOS like HPN was able to get the 60 mph gusts. Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 727 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Bridgeport Airport 52 MPH 0209 AM 11/06 ASOS Norwalk 45 MPH 1136 PM 11/05 CWOP Bridgeport 40 MPH 0948 PM 11/05 NOS-NWLON Stamford 40 MPH 1240 AM 11/06 CWOP Danbury Airport 40 MPH 0109 AM 11/06 ASOS Fairfield 39 MPH 1245 AM 11/06 CWOP ...Middlesex County... Middletown 40 MPH 0319 AM 11/06 MESOWEST ...New Haven County... Bethany 49 MPH 1244 AM 11/06 CWOP Stony Creek 46 MPH 0110 AM 11/06 CWOP Lighthouse Point 45 MPH 1241 AM 11/06 WXFLOW Meriden Airport 41 MPH 0242 AM 11/06 ASOS Hammonasset 41 MPH 0358 AM 11/06 WXFLOW Waterbury Airport 39 MPH 0213 AM 11/06 AWOS ...New London County... Groton Airport 54 MPH 0217 AM 11/06 ASOS Groton 39 MPH 0156 AM 11/06 CWOP ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Teterboro Airport 55 MPH 1024 PM 11/05 ASOS Hackensack 40 MPH 1245 AM 11/06 DAVIS ...Essex County... Caldwell 49 MPH 1026 PM 11/05 ASOS ...Hudson County... Bayonne 57 MPH 1047 PM 11/05 WXFLOW ...Union County... Newark Airport 53 MPH 0202 AM 11/06 ASOS Linden Airport 43 MPH 1055 PM 11/05 AWOS ...New York... ...Bronx County... Fordham 51 MPH 1035 PM 11/05 NYSM ...Kings County... Brooklyn College 45 MPH 0155 AM 11/06 NYSM South Slope 41 MPH 0233 AM 11/06 CWOP ...Nassau County... Bayville 61 MPH 1246 AM 11/06 WXFLOW Wantagh 47 MPH 0200 AM 11/06 NYSM Merrick 45 MPH 0155 AM 11/06 CWOP 0.8 NW Uniondale 41 MPH 1100 PM 11/05 MESOWEST Massapequa Park 39 MPH 0130 AM 11/06 CWOP 0.9 SW Manhasset 39 MPH 0130 AM 11/06 MESOWEST ...New York (Manhattan) County... Midtown Manhattan 47 MPH 1045 PM 11/05 NYSM Central Park 44 MPH 1043 PM 11/05 ASOS ...Orange County... Montgomery Airport 46 MPH 1116 PM 11/05 AWOS Warwick 40 MPH 1245 AM 11/06 NYSM ...Putnam County... Brewster 42 MPH 1130 PM 11/05 NYSM ...Queens County... NYC/La Guardia 54 MPH 0215 AM 11/06 ASOS Kew Garden Hills 52 MPH 1050 PM 11/05 NYSM Breezy Point 48 MPH 1222 AM 11/06 WXFLOW NYC/JFK Airport 48 MPH 0239 AM 11/06 ASOS ...Richmond County... 2 SE Elizabeth 52 MPH 0154 AM 11/06 NDBC College of Staten Island 44 MPH 0120 AM 11/06 NYSM ...Rockland County... Suffern 42 MPH 1010 PM 11/05 NYSM ...Suffolk County... Stony Brook 70 MPH 0112 AM 11/06 CWOP Eatons Neck 61 MPH 0103 AM 11/06 WXFLOW Baiting Hollow 56 MPH 0220 AM 11/06 CWOP Great Gull Island 56 MPH 0403 AM 11/06 WXFLOW Southold 54 MPH 0215 AM 11/06 CWOP Farmingdale Airport 51 MPH 0103 AM 11/06 ASOS Fishers Island Airport 50 MPH 1049 PM 11/05 WXFLOW Shirley Airport 49 MPH 0112 AM 11/06 ASOS Westhampton Airport 49 MPH 0117 AM 11/06 ASOS Islip Airport 49 MPH 0125 AM 11/06 ASOS Shoreham 49 MPH 0135 AM 11/06 DAVIS Montauk Airport 47 MPH 0352 AM 11/06 ASOS Orient 46 MPH 1125 PM 11/05 CWOP West Gilgo Beach 46 MPH 0125 AM 11/06 CWOP Stony Brook 45 MPH 1256 AM 11/06 CWOP Fire Island CG 45 MPH 0120 AM 11/06 WXFLOW Great South Bay 45 MPH 0127 AM 11/06 WXFLOW Brookhaven 43 MPH 1245 AM 11/06 CWOP 1 E East Hampton Airport 43 MPH 0115 AM 11/06 AWOS Southold 42 MPH 0115 AM 11/06 NYSM Blue Point 42 MPH 0124 AM 11/06 WXFLOW Napeague 42 MPH 0140 AM 11/06 WXFLOW Mecox Bay 41 MPH 0953 PM 11/05 WXFLOW Stony Brook 41 MPH 1255 AM 11/06 NYSM ...Westchester County... White Plains Airport 60 MPH 1217 AM 11/06 ASOS Tappan Zee Light 14 54 MPH 1204 AM 11/06 WXFLOW Croton 43 MPH 0923 PM 11/05 WXFLOW New Rochelle 40 MPH 1045 PM 11/05 CWOP ...Maritime Stations... ...Connecticut... Stonington Outer Breakwater 54 MPH 0202 AM 11/06 WXFLOW 1 ESE Norwalk 51 MPH 1152 PM 11/05 WXFLOW USCG Academy 48 MPH 0149 AM 11/06 WXFLOW ...New Jersey... Jersey City 54 MPH 1127 PM 11/05 CWOP ...New York... Robbins Reef, NJ 55 MPH 1106 PM 11/05 NOS-PORTS Kings Point 55 MPH 1254 AM 11/06 NOS-NWLON 15 S Atlantic Beach 54 MPH 1120 PM 11/05 NDBC Northport 54 MPH 0105 AM 11/06 DAVIS 26 SSE Robert Moses State Pa 51 MPH 0100 AM 11/06 NDBC Shinnecock 51 MPH 0110 AM 11/06 WXFLOW Point O Woods YC 49 MPH 0122 AM 11/06 WXFLOW Fire Island CG 49 MPH 0151 AM 11/06 WXFLOW Larchmont Harbor 48 MPH 1057 PM 11/05 WXFLOW &&

I know it's early in the season, and we will have more stronger winds for months on end. But i'm sick of this wind already!

Your contention is that the warm pool creates a +WPO pattern that promotes both a western storm track, and a fast jet that knocks down PNA ridges/shears phasing attempts and causes suppression, correct?

The 6z Euro may have been a bit more vigorous that the 0z.

long day ahead, lot of small outages

There’s multiple cold shots before Thanksgiving. But yeah…maybe warming up more near the 20th, but that’s 2 weeks away.

After the cold shot . The week leading up to Tgiving looks AN. Fast PAC flow and no cold left

Yes MU mentioned how they and LNS experienced this. Talked about how compressional warming can often be maximized right ahead of a cold front.

I guess the big question going forward this winter is if we can at least get one +TNH month like we got last January. Prior to that we had the much more productive one in January 2022. But that had the great -WPO block which was able to weaken the Pacific Jet along with the MJO 8. Last January the Pacific Jet kept going leading to big Southern Stream storm suppression with the kicker troughs coming in to Western North America. Then the question then becomes if we do get a +TNH interval, can the jet relax enough for some -WPO blocking in tandem to maybe allow some semblance of a benchmark track to develop for at least a few weeks?

Where are you getting your big warmup? Late month maybe.

Just wondering... Has DT even NOT been bullish for December and January? I do not think I have ever read one of his outlooks for winter where he said it would be mild and miserable for snow lovers. I'm very worried about the Pac jet, so we will see.

I hope you all stayed as safe as possible during this epic wind event. what a bust

Full boredom ahead. And a huge warmup

Yes. I agree with the vast majority of what you are saying.

Reminder on why threads for NYC CP may be started below advisory level expectations. From a weather underground publication - Nov 1 2025: 6. You should pay close attention to light snowfall forecasts too: It's human nature to focus on the snow forecasts with high amounts, or just the highest total in, say, a "three to six-inch" forecast. But don't underestimate the hazard from light snow. According to a study released in 2019, 54% of deadly snow-related traffic accidents in the U.S. occurred where snowfall was too light or didn't last long enough to prompt the National Weather Service to issue a winter storm warning or winter weather advisory.

I think it's more apt to say it was a decent fail by the models that were promoting it. The NAM had this less than 40mph winds 2 days ago for example.

lock 'em in

Just a little slop here

I was commenting on this a while back. That NE PAC warm blob is more a function of the forcing over the WPAC region. It really isn’t a stand-alone forcing or feedback mechanism like the subtropical and tropical WPAC warm pool east of Japan. So we just saw the greatest fall drop since the fall of 2019.

We as a science of modeling are not good beyond two weeks... missing out on the extremes potential. Most on here will see marked improvements later this century. Todays D6 is about as good as the D1 when I was kid in the late 50s.

Hold me.

I think the strat may offer some assistance late season, but if it doesn't, all bets are off. I will posting my thoughts early next week....a great deal of time is spent addressing many of the CC related issues that @bluewaveraises.

This thing blew moose balls! What a fail. Done with wind.

Yeah there’s some showers coming this way…interested to see if there’s any frozen mixed in.