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The Op runs yesterday looked great…Ops gonna op. You know this.

This-I was out driving between 2-3 am in Melville and Farmingdale LI-there was only about an inch OTG and snow was light. Now up to at least 6” in Melville. It has been snowing heavily for the last 2 hours

Temps dropping now everyone should now be below 32 atleast. Snow just exploded in intensity. I'd say 3-4 inches very hard to guess with compaction. 2.5-3 on ground with measurements few mingled ago though.

Tapering to flurries here. Maybe some trough action later

So a handful of flakes then lol

1970 through 1999 I would have considered a large event.

My average high gets down to 38 on the coldest day of the year, Jan 27. I think the average high is low 40s in early Jan. Problem with -PNA is that it's rarely very below (besides behind storm systems/cold fronts). It hits "average or above" at a 0.85 correlation. Also, Jan has a bigger SE ridge correlation than December

Bummed for our backyards. Suckered in by the model increases and that early burst! - Hoping January can turn the corner in the long range as Loudoun needs some good snow (And more of the DMV as well)

Each day this week, the long range has slowly walked back on the magnitude of the warmth. I’m starting to think it’s generally just a reshuffle and reload. The cold will remain bottled up on this side of the globe and with a -NAO developing, it’s poised to CAD itself right down the spine of the apps. Without the Pacific cooperating, everything will be transient but what’s new? I don’t the think the MJO reflects results as much as folks want to believe it does, but it certainly folds heavily into modeling. We’ve been in the cod for the past few days and it’s actually been leaning on the phase 5 side of the circle. It looks like it wants to charge back into 8 here shortly, so don’t be shocked this week when Christmas torch becomes Christmas seasonal with a frigid New Year holiday.

I usually trail him by 5%

Winds are picking up a bit here too with steady -SN, 24/22F

Interesting look on the ensembles for the holiday period. Big ridge just to the west with blocking to our north and normal temps. Not sure if this is a good overruning look or a shredder look.

The last one we had here we had zr where I believe you stayed all snow, I was going to say Brian has a bit more then me and figured you were close to his total.

And the snow probably isn't being blown sideways by galeforce northerly winds... Even more rare

Nice for you Anthony…. A good December for NYC no matter what happens now. Snow and 27 here.

It goes to show that not all good periods produce. I know I have said this at nauseum however this was the norm from 1970 through 1999.

Congrats Easy to forget up here that it’s not even most favorable climo yet. The satellite image tomorrow of Canada to Virginia having snow will be beautiful.

Getting alot colder now

I’d say about 6 inches here. Was a fun storm, looks very scenic for the holidays and was a nice change to track something get so much better.

Actually I’m doing slightly better lol

I had a feeling north would do better due to temps. I mentioned that last night. Lets see if it plays out

Down to 30 now hopefully pick up another inch

Its not going to wipe out your pack either, just an encouraging base to build on as your real winter begins.

I don’t even know where this myth came from that I predicted no more 4” daily snows. If you go back to the *unedited* post in question, I said “you have to expect that breaks soon” before jokingly posing the question whether it would never happen again. Which is a reasonably way to cope with nearly 4 years of no bona fide storms.