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Yea, not surprising to you, Chris or me.

I was torn on whether to include 2013 in my February composite, but I ultimately decided against it because of this....that said, we still have at least a brief El Nino like interlude coming up later this month....

Well, the EURO 25 threat survived 00z, but much weaker and strung out with less UL support. I dropped from 12 inches to 5 as a measure of strength. I'm a little surprised that it survived! And now the GFS jumps into the fray for a very active last 10 days of January. Bring on the 10:1 stuff. I don't want to measure more dust.

Never should have been started…

Seems like op euro and eps are the lone outliers at this point to a moderate impact event. Skynet is more in line with rest of guidance. Solid overnight 12hr trend in the positive.

But This would be during the day…at 1pm though. That map was high temps at -16f. Again, that would be all time brutality. Not happening like that imo. But if it does, just wow.

I don't even know much about the science behind it all, and I am a pessimist, but even for me its obvious the potential is there this year. This year has actually been "good". No shutouts, no endless SE ridge and torch. Its obvious the upcoming couple weeks are our best opportunity in years and if we actually walk away from it with nothing, like PSU said, time for a new hobby.

Ohio folks would like to see that map verify

Sunday is still trending bro…it’s not done. More Changes coming.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/new_afd1

It happens from time to time, I was just looking at a picture on my computer of my therm at -16. I think it was about 10 years ago or so.

The differences between rgem, gfs and euro are pretty hilarious for being only 54-60hrs out.

Thats what we need! A strong ridge in the NAO will suppress or swing it S and E. A relax in that feature will help us. Heather Archambault event?

GSP Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

The non-AI GFS isn’t actually that far off from the AIGFS at 06z. I don’t really trust AI precip fields as they’re not typically trained for those, but its actually not too far off from the op.

Made it down to 10.9. Steadily rising this morning, though. 15.6 presently. Still not given up on the weekend system. It wouldn't take much to work in our favor. Good luck to the SW mountain people tonight.

I'll take my chances with temp issues any day out here but it sure does seem like we have a moisture problem. Im going to need to speak to the manager about that

Sunday will be a few inches of fluff which blows away /sublimates. I was so looking forward to snow tomorrow

Kev, if sacrificing Saturday can bring a region wide significant event Sunday night/Monday, that’s a no brainer.

Getting this in place is part 1. Hopefully we dont have to delay this feature easing to get a hit. But it will eventually happen. Get that cold dome established first, and it looks like we are doing just that.

Sunday would be a little wet at first hopefully add a solid base before the cold next week..

For sure.

Cocked and loaded and getting ready to eject.

I would much rather a couple inches of paste tomorrow vs 2” of fluff that will blow away. If this is true it sucks

brutal L