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For all this model stuff being nice to see, proof is in the pudding. Lets see if/when it happens and then maybe the models will start to sniff out threats

I don’t know Ray…it’s close but that period from 85-92 was absolutely horrid too. If this season sucks…it would be close imo, but I still think we’d need another one on top Of this to be even with that 85-92 stretch here. Let’s hope we don’t have to go there.

Just hit the + sign instead of quote, and you can gather as many as you would like.

In general, a PNA- pattern results in lighter snowfalls in the New York City area and northern Mid-Atlantic. The Boxing Day blizzard is a notable exception and the only KU snowstorm during December when the PNA was negative.

I’m on Mobil all the time…and I see everybody’s avatar/picture..or whatever you call them.

This morning, the low temperature at Central Park was 36° while the lows at Bridgeport and White Plains were 24° and 25° respectively. That is the largest difference in low temperatures between Central Park and Bridgeport and Central Park and White Plains this month. The last time these differences were matched or exceeded was November 25, 2025 when Central Park had a low of 46°, Bridgeport had a low of 34°, and White Plains had a low of 35°.

Not good for much more than a light snowfall

Well... I just deleted it... Funny how I forget things like that

115” of meh.

tomorrow Santa is doing his "north loop" to Lock Haven, Susquehanna, and Bloom universities. I picked a gem of a day to do it.

We need to take our chances with the NAO in this hemispherical set up. Its like going back that old girlfriend with the crazy eye who burned all your cloths in the street once, but is a demon in the sack. She’s back and the only prospect.

I forgot about signatures... I had shut them off a while back. Mine hadn't been updated since 2015! lol

Liking the trends I saw. As that super -NAO starts to trend more west-based it kinda moves the central-US ridge west because the -NAO amplifies the eastern trough, which inherently helps us trend towards a more positive PNA (trending from negative towards neutrality). A 6z GFS kind of scenario is certainly possible--that storm actually tries to cut N/NW-ward--but the -NAO is just so strong that it gets shunted south giving US some wintry weather.

It really just sounds like an argument over if the glass is half full or half empty. I choose to appreciate the flakes we got even though it's frustrating to have been so close to more significant accumulation

Well at least a coating did fall...and then another couple inches on top of it

You must be referring to your flurries up to a coating call for SNE on Sunday

that makes sense, and thats why mobile sucks, watered down experience...but it's necessary sometimes. we've had this conversation before about 3 or 4 years ago pc vs. phone users

@nrgjeffif you are gonna give us some wx goods today, we must talk basketball. After a three game skid, the Vols finally showed some promise with that win over Louisville(though admittedly missing a key guard for that game).

Explains why your forecasts have gone downhill

This Euro storm reminds me of another at 9-10 days out released on 1/12/25 that caused social media to get way out of control and even caused me to be texted in the middle of the night from an Atlanta friend due to his Facebook feed from this as if it were credible: But this did turn out to be when the historic Gulf coast/deep SE winter storm occurred (1/21-22/2025).

I guess we will have to wait and see if this actually develops. The way I tend to look at this is that models even today cannot see pattern changes coming until they are within the medium range. It's fun to look at the weeklies, but there really is very little skill past 10-15 days. So maybe we do get a +PNA flip, maybe we don't, but I am confident that models don't know either

Models have been hinting pretty good wrt to tue Dec 28-Jan 2 period for almost a week already, albeit off and on. But now we're are seeing a growing signal across the ens means as well as an NAO blocking signature emerges from Scandinavia. Hunches dont get us winter storms, but instinct is suggesting this is a legit trackable window.

Nice fake cold last night. Min was pretty steady around 26⁰ for several hours, then rising slightly to 28 by 8:30, then to 46⁰ by 9:30 (up 17 degrees in an hour). If it hasn't scoured out by you yet, wait a few minutes.

Last night's Euro had a very similar scenario, but a few days later and kept the bulk of the system to our south. Close enough, however, to qualify as a match in my weenie manual! Lol