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Thanks for the in depth stats. I think everyone agrees there was a warm period over the holidays, but this is a forward looking thread so let’s take it easy on the past details.

Lol... Thanks Scott; I thought it was some special run of the AI... When I saw Will use the term, I though it must be legit... I'm familiar with Terminator, but did not make the connection...

Yeah, I was thinking the same. We really didn’t cash in with the cold air but it’s still capable. A inch tomorrow and a nasty cold windy weekend is alright by me… 31f @ 3:50pm…doesn’t look like freezing will happen.

definitely need to know what we at EasternMassWeather are thinking. @40/70 Benchmarkmust be enraged reading this thread so much ammunition for him in here

Not much time left with the NAM's and SREF

This was 12z Ukie

The NWS at Upton uses dense rank sorting and doesn’t skip ranks following ties. I think this makes more sense since we are ranking the temperature and not the year. It’s more misleading in my opinion to skip ranks since it makes the rank more subjective when there are multiple ties.

Definitely looks like it’s trying to reload in Canada at the end of the EPS.

I noticed models are sort of struggling a bit with the ULL placement. But I can buy a band near ern CT to ORH and another one near the coast.

Anyone know where to find information for the winter of 1996 on long island as far as exact dates and amount of each snowfall

If you approach this event, knowing that it has a tremendous capacity for disappointment, then it will be much easier to bare psychologically. I’m planning on a coating here and we’ll see if there’s a pleasant surprise of more than that.

3k has 4 inches over Wexford

He gets free rent, just has to give shitty weather forecasts to her as payment. I am pretty sure that’s DT.

Take a look at the models for yourself. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

F here in central Alabama.

Here's the April 2015 temperature anomoly: This map doesn't look much different than those March 2026 Euro maps.

Another February, another massive -PNA (Aleutian ridge). Pattern change looks to take place around Feb 9th, enjoy your snow tomorrow.

Here are the winter monthly averages for TRI(so far): January -1.6F...snow 8.6 which is +5.6 AN December +0.7F...snow 0.9 which was -0.7 BN February (which will certainly modify some with WELCOMED warmed temps! bring it on) as of 2/4: -17.4F...snow is +0.4 so far February had the coldest day(regardless of month) since 2015 according to David Boyd of WCYB along w/ two record lows on Feb 1st and 2nd. February 1st was -27.8 BN and Feb 2nd was -28.4 BN. There are portions of lakes frozen solid right now which rarely freeze over in NE TN. There have been three record lows set in the 2000s at TRI....February 2026 now holds two of those three record lows. We have had back-to-back winter storms during the past two weekends...an ice storm and snow storm. It snowed again last night. I would guess MBY probably has had about 12" of snow so far this winter. Lots of nickel and dime stuff in addition to the big storm. And yes, temps after Christmas were warm, but oddly TRI didn't set a single record high here, but again....the temps for both December and January will average out BN for both months combined at TRI. With the exception of just a few days, TRI has been BN since Jan 11. This has been an impressive cold spell.

As we sit here today, I think we are exactly where we want to be for next weekend based on what I learn on this forum every winter: 1) We don't want to be in the bullseye 10 days out; 2) We are OK because these events always trend north; 3) we are also ok because these events always trend south; 3) weekend rule; 4) the storm will make its own cold air; 5) the models did not ingest the latest data from airplanes; and 6) its a Baja ejection thing so no worries. We are so back.

Yes, this is ideal actually. Wonder how much the met in this pic is paying his mom for rent. Probably has a tray of Tostinos and Mt Down on that desk.

Toss it…you’re gonna do well.

Does this suffice? Think I found some footage on fb reel of a 150k basement poster

End of next week looking a lot less torchy on guidance. The PNA is headed to negative territory but that block just doesn’t want to budge. Valentine’s may be a severe event but we could also trend firmly into a cad/miller b type of look with just a few more tweaks.

Extreme Cold Watch Issued: 1:03 PM Feb. 5, 2026 – National Weather Service ...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills of 20 below possible. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

ready 4 spring