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Both Gfs and Ukie have it as a Miller A.

Killjoy

Picked up .30” of rain yesterday and overnight. Currently 47 degrees. Everyone safe travels for thanksgiving!

Ensemble too.

4.5 final call

Nice looking runs, but let's not get too excited until we get within 5 days. It's not even December yet, so let's hold until Black Friday. If the models are still doubling down then, this may be a real threat to contend with.

Slowing down the introduction of renewables is going to increase US electricity prices. https://www.forbes.com/sites/ianpalmer/2025/11/23/electricity-prices-will-shoot-up-due-to-us-federal-mandates/?ctpv=xlrecirc

Good news, I’ll be in Denver for work next week. This is probably happening for us.

0.50” rain. We take what we can get.

Noticed that. GFS AI is well offshore too.

Plug-in hybrids, EVs with a back-up gas engine, are an additional roughly 20% in China. So conventional combustion cars have fallen below 50%. EV subsidies are being eliminated in China as they aren't needed anymore (see link). Agree China wouldn't have cheap EVs without subsidies. However, now that cheap EVS are here there is no going back. EVs are only going to get cheaper and better going forward as commercial scale increases and battery technology improves. China's big EV bet is paying off. Their EV exports are ramping, reaching a record $7 billion in August. (2nd link). https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-signals-it-will-pull-plug-subsidies-evs-with-five-year-plan-exclusion-2025-10-29/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-explorer/

Very dense fog here this morning. 49°.

AI stuff pretty far offshore. But, we watch.

Nice 12-18 event for dc and Maryland. Nbd.

Well that escalated quickly. Only ~5.5 days out for start of precip:

We 6z GFS

WB 6Z GFS. Doubles down at 6Z!

What did I tell you a week or two ago…it’s your year Chris! Believe.

I will not believe it is going to snow until after it snows. Is it 7 or 8 yrs below average in a row now?

Post your Dec 2025 forecasts and add snowfall forecasts for the usual nine locations which I list below (three replace some of the warmer locations in our temperature contest, six are the same locations) ... TEMP _________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA SNOW _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV (snowfall forecasts will include anything already measured and go to the end of the season which can be May for DEN at least) This post will be edited into the annual scoring update, as you can see the Nov 2025 scores are already tabulated in a preliminary form in the previous post above. ----------------------------- Try to post the temperature portion by the usual deadline of Dec 1 06z, I can wait for the snowfall forecasts for a few days into December. Happy Thanksgiving.

Fun to track, but hard to tie any excitement locally. No real science applied to the “pessimism”, just erring on side of climo and the many fail modes favored at my specific location. On the other hand, lucked out on a record event earlier in the month. So perhaps the wins can continue. I’d be happy to just see some more snow. But as a junkie for #’s, I’m looking at the thresholds of 2”+ & 5”+. The former is just cool and gets to double digit Nov snowfall. From what I can uncover, we’ve already surpassed any reasonable verifiable record for month. The latter would mean surpassing the individual seasonal totals of ‘23/‘24 & ‘24/‘25 by end of November. Which is both silly and awesome at the same time.

WB 0Z ensembles at Day 8.

The 0Z Euro starts as frozen in the metro BUT that HP does not stay anchored like in the GFS run so there is a change over to rain - still to early to predict the outcome except to say the storm chances are increasing and a frozen to rain scenario is favored right now IMO

The OZ UKMET looks to be a closer to the coast track as the HP in southeast Canada is not as strong - starting at least as Frozen in the metro - the Canadian and the Euro AI are offshore tracks