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The good news is that most models seem to want to keep a trough over the east for most of December, and that warmup in mid-December looks a bit less likely now than it was just a week ago. However, and I believe this is a big caveat, the trough over Alaska continues to show up. I don’t think that’s a good thing because that means at least some mild pacific air will infiltrate CONUS. I’m not sure what the eastern extent of that mild air penetration will be, but if there was a ridge over Alaska instead of a trough, I think we would be in better shape. That being said, it’s good to see winter storms to our west and our north. This fall was very inactive outside of one Great Lakes snowstorm on Veterans Day, and it’s good to see that has changed. I’ll always take my chances with a colder and stormier pattern. At some point, something usually breaks and we get something down here…. Eventually

18z.

So we're not looking at a Nam coup

"about everyone"-those of us in NYC and coast. Where you are and I-84 corridor, still hopefully a decent event. Hopefully a good surprise can happen for many of us. I-84 corridor still looks in decent shape. Cold rain sucks but I'll deal.

Just simply not enough cold air y for this storm to produce any accumulation likely south of I-87 or I-84. High pressure is moving out too quickly, and our source region is still well above normal because of a warm fall. That being said. I’d definitely say that once you reach NJ/PA border; you’ll definitely see at least a few inches out that way. Expecting nothing but cold rain for most of us on here

Measured on a table behind my house fairly shielded from wind and no trees. That said I’m sure we’ll find lots of variability.

Rgem for viewing pleasure

One of the all time great modeling rallies. I'll never forget watching the 00z run roll in on Christmas Eve. Or maybe it was 18z?

NAM is useless outside 48 hours, I'm glad it isn't showing a desirable outcome

In principle we may be seeing this

Little cherry on top in SE WI. Nice touch.

It’s been a good day.

8.8” here. Still snowing lightly but about wrapped up. Memorable storm for sure. It’s a winter wonderland outside.

I measured 7.3" by me, first time measuring all day though so there was definitely compaction. I don't have great places to measure since I have a big tree out front and also in back of my house. The Naperville 2.5 ESE CoCoRaHS is probably only a little over a mile from me so I'll see what they come up with in the morning. Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

Now seeing some sleet here as well.

Done now? Still not sure

Where is that 287 horse and buggy photo? I dont think its our storm, but be ready to bust it out!

Did I read correctly that this is ORD’s biggest single-day snowfall measurement since 11/21 of 2015?!

Possibly, as long as you're not talking about the NAM this far out. It's not useful yet

In general Ninos with blocking have a less active NS, but not always. We saw a case recently where the blocking was underwhelming in reality, despite what the models persistently advertised.

Me either, but growing up in the 80s, weed wasn't what we called dope...

Welcome, don't be afraid to ask questions. And remember, in the end, it's just frozen water.

It has compacted so much here hard to tell. I'm right by Alta and saw a 6in report there. I did just notice that cutoff for that was just before 5. We still had some more snow after then. Not much but some. Definitely curious to see an updated map once more totals come in. But still guessing there will be lower totals in this area. We didn't get much from overnight and snow this morning was not of good quality. Wasn't till banding moved in and finally got some bigger flakes.

NAM is pretty much snowless for SNE lol

Yeah, the more I looked at them, the more I can see the precip type might actually not be an issue with this one for a change. As of now. GFS looks like it backed off of that too. I'll take a lighter event all snow over a potentially heavier event, but you're sweating it out about the warm air pushing in. Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk