All Activity

Looks so pretty. The weaker PV presently, and the MJO progression, along with increasing Atlantic blocking associated with the general background state actually support this cold and possibly snowy look in the East during December.

Eps also. A few inches but I doubt that.

Speaking of Illinois weather, the Northwestern-Illinois game is currently being played in the snow and airing on Fox.

I saw 3PM….at least that’s when the WSW started. That was 5 hours ago. .

it shows mostly frozen for Manhattan

Low DP's will do that. Evaporative cooling . The Model's tend to miss it many times.

This. The GFS was regularly a shredded POS well offshore right until 24-48hrs out and we never even worried about it.

All a model needs to do is nail a few winter events from 4 days out and it’s enshrined. I also think the other models were worse or seemed worse, and they’ve caught up. Running the Euro 4 times a day hasn’t helped. We see twice as many solutions as we used to back then with the model. The flip side is I can think of numerous events it was way too generous with QPF in snowfalls on the western and northern side. What was that event where it was gung ho on 20-36” for NYC and even into NNE for days… only to get completely shafted… 2011? Or Feb 2013?

OT but is the east side of Simsbury really low in elevation? I'm surprised you're < 200'

Central Park's frequency of measurable snowfall in December and record daily snowfall.

Probably a mistake to jinx this one but this is looking like an overperformer for here. Already closing in on 2". That band that went through Erie and Huron counties is delivering the goods. Hopefully it holds together for you guys out east. Nice to finally be on the scoreboard for the season.

I think some of you are forgetting that we called the Euro king for a reason, and it never caved or jumped. Only made small moves to reach consensus, now it bounces back and forth more than Kevin’s Seasons in Seasons.

NWS forecast continues to be more wintry like for Western Prince William county

Fair enough, understanding that many of us focus far more on winter weather

It aint a snowstorm until detroit gets dry slotted lol.

There are a lot of candidates for posts of the year.

I can't remember a December looking like this in such a long time....(WB latest weeklies)

Not to mention we’d remember the 6 days out of 365 days in a calendar year when the Euro showed more snow than other models and it was right. But no one cared when its QPF forecast missed in early June. A lot of cherry picking in memories rooted around snowfall events.

The mean has been pretty consistent, but yeah, this is a hell of a way to get there.

Completely correct.

Nice band right over where it should be. Hope it lasts a while.

It won’t happen like that

AI ensemble has members all over. Not sure how that’s skill inside 84 hrs.

???

Great snow game now on FOX. Northwestern vs Illinois