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Wtf is that weenie 2” over me. I’m not finished with the yard work yet.

Phase 6-8 in DEC are not bad at all. 6 turns bad in JAN/FEB. A lot of misconceptions about MJO phases. Use Roundy's RMM: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

Lining up to get the northern Greens another high end snow event tomorrow into Monday night. This is only through Monday 1pm and still going strong. Another 1-2” QPF snow event for the mtns.

It wouldn't surprise me if there's a snowstorm Friday since I'm flying out of town Thursday. Happens all the time.

Deterministic runs are starting to pick up on a decently cold shot right after Thanksgiving. Still plenty of uncertainty, but cold enough for snow if we time it right.

The CFS seasonal today was wall-to-wall cold for DJF.

Was between 32-34 around the same time, then the wind quit and down it went. Only day this month it's been unobstructed sun the entire day.

Not a thing this cold season. Build an arc.

So is April.

Its closer to a winter month than summer, thats for sure. Winter month

Beautiful hike out at Wagon Hill today. Pretty shocked by the amount of erosion…The sign informing about the erosion won’t make it through this winter.

Wind advisory hoisted

The wedge says no.

It could still be warm next Saturday…still some uncertainty. Maybe not 70 warm, but 55-60.

One reason my mother never called me son...

Sort of opposes the warmer temperatures means more snows theory. Not to say that there cannot be occasional heavy snow storms...

Very jealous of people getting laps up north! Father had a stroke so I’ve been helping out with property management and financial affairs. Hope I can skin or even just ride lifts soon! .

From our member @griteaterposted elsewhere: my take on him is that he isn’t a baseless hyping forecaster. Instead, he generally uses his intelligence and immense knowledge in an objective manner and thus is well worth following. Yes, he’s an optimist in the sense that his winter posts are mainly when the prospects for E US cold are good and is usually quiet(er) when prospects aren’t good. I think of him as the opposite of @snowman19. Both smart/knowledgeable and neither are baseless hypsters as they back up their posts well. One loves to predict cold and the other mild. Predicting the future is hard in any business or hobby, but I have higher than normal confidence that the Dec 15 to Jan 15 period is going to be active and fun in here. Get the load testing done early boys! My own feeling is that the combo of a weak SPV in late Nov/early Dec along with a weak to moderate MJO since that’s on average when it’s coldest (preferably slow moving <1.5 amp phase 8 followed by slow moving near or inside COD phases 1-2-3) combined with Nina climo would give a good chance at a cold dominated E US 12/15-1/15. A lot is up to the MJO, which has struggled to get into phase 8 at all in Dec since 2010.

mid 70s in RIC now. Still ~50 near Baltimore and mid 50s in DC.

Also who cares if it’s 80 on Thanksgiving week, it has no effect on what happens after that.

@CoastalWx will be happy to know the snowman has tipped over

This is some very strange stats. Not sure you can draw any meaningful conclusion at all from that. At the very least you’d want to add non-snowy falls and what happened in the following winters. Otherwise all you can see is that 1980-2023 has had less snowy winters after a snowy fall - but could also be that all winters in the first stretch were snowy and none in the second were, aka - there is zero correlation between fall and winter

Surfy and supportive, Jay was firing today. Never thought I would see the chutes under the tram be in play in mid-November (albeit with a sharky entrance). Tram ridge hot-laps were excellent all morning.

TBH.... I truly wonder if he is just trying to get a rise out of everybody ( action, I would hope he is, because if he's not.......... ). Lol