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surgical precision here. what looked like a promising line split in 2 well before showing up here. Typical. i have tons of yard work planned for Friday, but long-ish range forecast is showing ~50% chance of rain here. Based on how this summer has gone, i am not worried about it.

Hopefully the quarter inch+ gives it a little life back.

Yup getting Steined. A little slight shower. Meh. Webbed hands. Can’t believe I’m stressing over yellow and orange pixels, but he has broken me down.

The main issue is how dry it has been. Newark is currently close to 90° on a dry downslope flow behind the cold front. It will get cooler again over the next week. Last year Newark only made it to 87° in September. So it hasn’t had two consecutive Septembers not reaching 90° since 2003 and 2004. So what may happen is that that when the ridge returns by the 2nd week of September, we find a way for the warm spots like Newark to sneak in another 90° day.

actually I'm halfway in between I-225 and Centennial Airport, where the blue dot is in this radar image from a few weeks ago. In the little finger of D2 drought on the map just SE of Denver. We did pick up another 0.11" early this morning, so that's good.

IDK if the ‘danger’ has passed but we made it up to 89.1 (highest this month) and have since fallen to around 86

I know we need rain, but...holy wow what a day. 84 downtown Balt just now when stepped out - winds out of the NW - no humidity. Fluffy cloud warning in effect.

The dewpoint is all the way down to 49 here now, as we begin the long low humidity stretch. 86 degrees.

I ran a search of the thread to make sure I didn’t already say all this, but I noticed the whole earthquake day showed the difference between Baltimore and Washington, (and probably Richmond). I was working in Catonsville back then and commuted past BWI to get home, so listened to the Baltimore traffic report on maybe 98Rock radio, and recall Dave Sandler saying that there wasn’t much traffic today, because after the quake many workers went home, and everything was sort of winding down at 5:30 or so. Meanwhile, I wanted to listen to Redskins radio on 980am so changed stations, and Steve Czaban (a jokester) was wailing about how we’ve had a terrible earthquake and the Beltway is stopped, and the Metro is not running, and phones are not calling, and all of D.C. is a mess. I really, really, thought he was making his sarcastic jokes. Then as time went on, looking at the traffic map, and talking to people who were there, I realized he was not joking. As an old guy who has worked in both Washington and Baltimore I can tell you there are certain differences to both urban areas, but the earthquake day was the biggest. In some minor defense of D.C., I think the quake was worse there, but it was quite significant in Baltimore too.

Yeah you know the heat will come back. It's too early for it to stay comfortable for the rest of the season. Euro and GFS both show 90 degree weather coming back around the 4th of September. I think we're done with the extreme 95 to 100 degree heat, but we'll see low 90s again. Before then though this is going to be a spectacular stretch of weather for the next 8 or 9 days.

Congrats on a few red pixels

-RA Will be lucky to get 0.01” from this. Hopefully CON misses this and finishes with 2 tenths.

The wave was designated with medium probabilities but was lowered as it never really became organized and is moving into a more hostile environment. It's listed with 0% because the 8 AM update lowered it from either 10% to 0%...that's why it was still listed.

I think it's a fairly easy call for above average overall. For me, the Caribbean and SW Atlantic are the places to be though the Gulf will get theirs. Well this invest survived longer than any of the models expected, but the graveyard got it.

I can see where the numbers come from, but I'm guessing that with an active back half of September that projection will change. I don't see sub 140 ACE, but I also don't think we're rocketing toward hyperactive ACE either. I'd probably lean around 150. Kind of agree on the 3+ H strikes, considering that I think this is an EC, not Gulf favored year. That in it of itself suggests fewer than 3 strikes. With us being where we are and my peak season forecast at 10/6/3, I'm thinking we're probably around 15/7/4 to end the season. All I care about is my peak season forecast though.

I lost my no 90's streak. 91 at 3:55pm yesterday, will probably see it again today. Currently 88 at 1:35pm. edit: 91 today at 2:22pm.

I'll also add that these landfalls you mention also highlight just how difficult it is to get an east coast hurricane strike. Much like New England, but obviously to a lesser degree, it takes a statistically unlikely alignment of steering forces to bring a major hurricane to the EC, even with homebrew nearby.

There’s no way 190 ace is happening with a lull right during peak season. A strong backend is still likely based on increased vertical instability but it’s going to be hard to make up for lost time. Erin also cooled a large portion of the typical recurve track which will limit future storm intensity in that region.

Thanks for the question. I think it's too specific to look at a place like FL vs the Carolina coast. Part of the analysis is pretty basic. The more active a season is the more likely there is a landfall generally, just because more storms equal more opportunities. In my analysis though, it goes a little beyond that. First, look at the thermodynamic environment in the genesis and "final track" (locations that a TC would need to cross to make landfall) areas. In spite of Erin's impressive wake, there is still an enormous amount of untapped potential in the Gulf, Caribbean, and in the southwest Atlantic. Second, I think the ENSO and wet Sahel analysis is compelling. I think the wet Sahel in particular is interesting because track density is consistent with what looks like a hostile tropical Atlantic that suppresses waves until you approach the Antilles and SW Atlantic. I also think that the anomalous troughing that we're seeing now in the east, while certainly a pattern for recurves, would quickly become a pattern for pulling Caribbean or SW Atlantic homebrew systems north if you look at it, especially if that pattern retrogrades as we head deeper into September (where I doubt we produce consecutive negative departure months in the eastern part of the country. I also think climatology plays a role here. @GaWx had a very interesting post looking at east coast landfalls later in the peak season. Storm genesis location matters here, and I am thinking with a slightly less robust wave train from past years, we see vigorous, but weaker waves that can get further west into the Caribbean or SW Atlantic. This could have implications for the eastern Gulf, but I do think troughing will be more of a feature that would lead to earlier turns than the western Caribbean unless something obviously develops there. I do think homebrew is the most likely way the east coast sees a hurricane strike. I actually think it probably means less of a chance, unless there is meaningful activity in the eastern Gulf (which has also been a hot spot of late so that can't be ruled out).

would be wild if some states went to permanent DST and others went to permanent ST

I find them funny.

Lake Michigan can produce dumps well into February, though more synoptic forcing becomes necessary the later you go it seems. Lake Eerie OTOH typically shuts down after any prolonged cold.

Gotta love TPC showing us that disturbance by the Windwards....then telling us it has a 0% chance of development.

Fire pit and fireplace potential ahead from CWG

I have a question about grass dormancy. I have never had the SW part of my lawn burn out like this. Just crunchy brown grass. Large areas of 0% green. If we don't get any substantial rain soon with little time for green up this season, will my lawn come back next year? If it is 100% brown? I guess I can have it overseeded, it's a large area.