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The NAM got drunk last night like the rest of us. #Merica

Well, that's the thing. My gut says we get smacked with snow overnight, then sleet. Freezing rain I just don't think will happen. I just have never seen rain with temps that low here from what I can remember, but we'll see.

Yes, it’s primarily used for temperatures .

Looks mostly the same .75 to 1" by 0z

Yes, but it's replacement is horrible too.

Can't even get a proper Nam'ing. SMDH...

3k NAM looks quite a bit colder at 60 (end of run) than the 12k.

a very weird NAM run...

Be nice to get both regionwide

NAM is a crushing. This is all pre sleet https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2026012218/namconus_asnow_neus_27.png

Some 20-22" Kuchera amounts, Springfield down to Benton county, AR.

The Capital Weather Gang posts a forecast that they're only 50% sure about lol

Cuts like crazy after it forms. What a wonky run that was lol.

The 18z NAM rolls w/ two waves of precip. The first wave absolutely hammers the eastern valley. Precip w/ that wave is south of the first wave on the 12z. It makes me think the model is adjusting the earlier hours. I bet that might happen w/ that second wave as well. Makes sense as the big high is impacting the early part of the run.

Yep. It’s getting discontinued this spring correct? .

Right, kinda reminded me of the GFS run actually.

7pm looks like Mix line finally reaches SCPA.

Still snow at 7:00 pm Sunday on the NAM, mixing at 10:00 pm but precip looks mostly done.

Sunday night is ripping sleet lol

As we say, “you can always adjust up if needed”.

That was me that said most of the forecasted long duration events don't come to fruition. Hoping that I'm wrong with this one.

It's close. It's seems like they keep sniffing around that idea today. Will be curious if the 00z runs have any surprises..

I was kicking this around when some of the 12z runs showed this trend...and now I am pretty sure... less amped is not necessarily what we want anymore. Unless it goes full on GFS, the other less amp solutions are just ending up warmer and dryer because there is less intense WAA precip, which cools the column and holds off the advance of the WAA for a time. So these slightly weaker solutions are actually worse...yea the track might be slightly better...but it fails to change the changeover time significantly and it just cuts down on the thump before we flip.

The gfs was doing that with its total fails a couple of days ago. It looks like this is going to cut no matter what. May as well hope for an organized precip bomb to maximize the thump.