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I would like to see the ONI coupled at around 1.7 or lower, and I bet we would see a better winter independent of the Modoki index.

Yeah just a dusting here too, but back to white. A reminder that I guess it’s not as far away as it feels.

We've had decent springs once in a while over the decades but those are more the exception to the rule. As climate and data empirically show, we more typically suffer these ~ 6-week purgatories between the end of March and early May ... give or take. Some are cold and 'that one last chance to snow' and questionable perspectives on reality hold outs ... heh, notwithstanding. For those that long for warmth and covet those visions, this year seems particularly annoying so far. We've like 3 different species of BD fronts spanning just the last 6 days. N door, E door, quasi lost in a normal door... We may be carrying a positive anomaly in BD even for our spring lorn region.

It makes perfect sense to me that if the essence of El Nino is anonymously warm water modulating the Hadley Cell via enhanced convective activity, then warming up the water to the west of ENSO is going to reduce it's ability to do so because the MC is going to rob the ENSO region of some of that convection....ie it's a competing force.

I keep having to remind myself it's just the first week of April... It's just a slog, this time of year.

Whopping 0.02" and not a drop in the forecast. Sprinkler's a comin'.

I am willing to bet that if we were to ditch the gap between the RONI and ONI, or even have the ONI lag the RONI, we would get lower heights in the southeast....my guess is in order achieve that we are going continue to have to see that western Pac warmth spread eastward, which would help to reduce that persistent, residual cool ENSO residue. Again, don't mistake me overvaluing the RONI in-and-of-itself....it's what it represents, which is the surplus of western Pacific warmth relative to the eastern Pacific reducing the ability of +ENSO to couple with the atmosphere, and thus modulate the northern Pacific in the manner that we would like.

Had a low of 35 degrees this morning.

I was wondering about that...how do we trust such aged data...that said, I am not going to contest the fact that ambient heights were lower back then.

2015 having a weaker se trough relative to 1997 is entirely consistent with what I am proposing, since the RONI lagged the ONI in 2025, and it did not in 1997. I made the same mistake in 2015 that I did in 2023 in mistaking the warmer west Pacific for more of a Modoki signal. I will not do that again.

A few flurries here. 36°

Chris, I’m curious. How is it possible to come up with even approximate geopotential hts for way back in 1877-8?

Got just over 2.5 inches with the rain Friday morning included. Had a low of 39 this morning

Yeah, I guess I didn't pay attention because I was not expecting that. Only a dusting at my place but nothing here at the office in Waterbury.

Looks like this week will feature some of our coolest temperatures until next fall before our next rebound warmer.

Perhaps if the RONI is in better alignment with the ONI next winter than 2023-2024 there will be a stronger Aleutian Low and trough in the SE and MA. But I am really not sure about that yet since even 2015-2016 had weaker troughing compared to 1997-1998. Could also be a function of the warm pool in the North Pacific expanding outside the traditional -PDO and +PDO bounds with the record 2nd EOF. 2023-2024 Nino ridge to north in super mode like 1997-1998 but the Aleutian Low and SE and MA trough showing a Niña-like influence with big RONI and ONI spread. 2015-2016 Aleutian Low well developed but the SE and MA trough in the East very weak. Perhaps reflecting the record WPAC warm pool leading to the Niña-like record MJO 5. 1997-1998 last traditional looking super El Niño both to the north and south across North America with strong ridge and trough development. 1877-1878 super El Niño more traditional like 1997-1998.

Low of 43 imby. WC at the Bear Rocks station in dolly sods is 10 this morning. That'll wake you up in April.

Thank you @Scarlet Pimpernel

Some unseasonably cold temperatures through mid-week including a hard freeze tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain in the upper 40's which is a solid 10 degrees below normal for the date. We slowly modify to slightly above normal temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 60's by the weekend. Looking ahead to next week we should see a big warmup well into the 70's before another cool down back to below normal temperatures by late next week. Overall, a dry pattern throughout the period.

Some unseasonably cold temperatures through mid-week including a hard freeze tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain in the upper 40's which is a solid 10 degrees below normal for the date. We slowly modify to slightly above normal temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 60's by the weekend. Looking ahead to next week we should see a big warmup well into the 70's before another cool down back to below normal temperatures by late next week. Overall, a dry pattern throughout the period. Albedoman will not be pleased!

Wind is cranking

extended looks good after a bit of zzzzs here

It will be nice to get the ground dried out for spring yard work, hiking etc. I think everybody in SNE is out of the drought conditions now.

Definitely a drier look on ensembles…especially SNE.

37 degrees this morning, fired my coal stove back up yesterday for probably a few days. .28” of rain yesterday and highest wind gust 37mph.