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Slept in a little this morning, and I wake up to 1"+ of snow. Still snowing, so will take a measure later, and report it. Wasn't expecting that much.

Back in the fall several people made the correct point that this winter would be heavily northern stream dominant, and given the state of the northern stream lately (fast and chaotic) it would mean whatever snow threats we did end up getting would be unlikely to resolve at any significant leads. Several people referenced 2013-14 as an example, when we got numerous snow events but they were far from resolved until inside 24 hours! Some, like early Dec 2013, was a positive bust in the nowcast! There was a negative bust for all except the PA line people in early Feb also. Both cases the going forecast as the storm began was WAY off...one turned snowier and one not. But I've found it entertaining and sometimes frustrating to see all the "why are the models sucking arse" posts all winter when this was a known thing coming in, it was predicted over and over...and yet people still expected 100 hour forecasts to end up accurate, knowing that this pattern was not one models would resolve details on at any lead let along 100 hours plus. big picture he is totally right. But...sometimes late in the season this little boundary waves can be sneaky good given the increased baroclinicity. This also seems to be increasing in recent years...maybe elephant related? While it helps us less and less often, when we do get a flush hit from a weak little boundary wave they sometimes are way more than you would think just looking at the synoptics. That isn't something you would forecast from range though, its just something to root for as a "sometimes this can be sneaky good if we get lucky" thing.

Similar to 6z EuroAI

i need to get a big snowstorm for next week my snow potential map is going viral and i need to be right otherwise it won't look good for my weather page

The RGEM was headed that way too it seemed.

None really getting up into SNE but I think it still could. I do believe though Sunday needs to go away or be very flat. Its noticeable on many Op runs and individual ensembles that those which are amped or more intense Sunday as a whole are flat or nonexistent with the second event.

43 in the Tamaqua backyard at 10:30am. Even warmer here in Allentown. Hopefully we get a full sunny day today. That way, all of the old snowpack will be gone before anything next week materializes.

WB 12Z ICON

no kidding. 100% of possible so far down here. MET MOS 41. Noooormally I'd suggest at this time of year we add the perfunctory tick or two to the high, but with all this white shit underneath ... DPs are low so melt will be slow but the sun will breach that critical angle for maybe 1.5 hrs at zenith this time of year, and that becomes more of a direct melt assault for that time span. Probably a lot of dripping and some street gutter brooks at that time. I'm ready... I could use a 55/48 overnight rainer to really eat this shit down. We'll cross the flooded bridge if/when that happens.

Huge north shift on icon due to the high being way further east.

Icon further north for next week 6z vs 12z

Icon brings some snow north of I-70

Took some time away from models after a crazy 7 day stretch at the winter desk. Just from a glance, I haven’t been too enthused. Still a shot at some snow, but max potential is probably 2-4”. Need something with more umph this time of year to really get anything appreciable. Judging by the ensembles after this one, I’m gearing up for spring mode. Baseball is on the horizon and I’m ready to tackle some outdoor walks, hiking, and meals outside. I’ll always welcome some snow though, so if it happens, I’ll accept.

Also have to differentiate between short term and long term drought. Long term drought isn't a huge deal around here because we don't have the issues with limited supply the West has. It seems our short term drought is mostly gone after today in NC.

2014-2015 was followed by a record warm May (or at least close to it). One of the most remarkable pattern turnarounds in spring, right along with 2010.

Do you agree that models are "overcooking" a storm and it won't be much for anyone?

Our products have deadlines, so we can’t adjust the overnight forecast with the 06z guidance. If things remain like they are, it’ll be reflected in the next update.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/184f9zjK13/?mibextid=wwXIfr

31.7° with flurries. Very little sun so far today.

Yeah, I saw Tim Kelly saying that this would be trying to push GW agenda. These people are freaking psycho.

Your son, me, and Cold Miser too.

Classic spring setup there. Away from the water warm, chilly near the ocean/sound

Everyone measured wrong across 3 states? Giant conspiracy to push GW agenda? Beer? We may never know. Either way F storm. Run of the mill 10-18" forgettable coastal.

Oh wow, awesome man!

What I meant by stay there, was consistent days in the 60’s and 70’s. 98% of the time it won’t last long. And sure, I certainly remember and agree that there’s been some solid stretches…I’d take that in a heartbeat. But it looks(at least in the long range that it doesn’t seem to want to last this March)…but of course that’s very much subject to change too.