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looking at the eps this morning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE, HOLSTON'S WEATHER EMPORIUM, Mossy Grove, TN 6:30 AM EST ****YE OLEN CLIPPER WARNING*** * WHAT...Light to occasionally moderate snow. Snow accumulations 1 to 4 inches, greatest across higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 7 mph will produce pretty sights. * WHERE...Eastern KY, SW VA, and possibly Bristol, TN and Mountain City, TN The greatest additional accumulations will focus across the higher terrain of the High Knob and peaks on the KY and NA border above 2500 feet. * WHEN...Staring late this evening * IMPACTS...Plan on some snow covered and slippery road conditions as well as the comfortable ease of a clipper's accumulations. Hot chocolate is recommended for these trying times. SUMMARY...SW VA and eastern KY is in danger of getting hit by the first traditional clipper to hold together all the way to the southern Apps region in what seems to me like 7.5 million years. Some of the Hi Res models clip extreme NE TN too. Pretty much all the Hi Res models show the same thing, even the ever stingy NBM.

The 6z Euro is perfect for my backyard

Gusty winds and flurries here this morning. Peak gust was 41. Saw that Camp David gusted to 53 overnight. 32°

I grew up in Long Beach on the South Shore and we only needed the AC a handful of times back in the 1970s. First for the August 1973 heatwave and then the July 1977 heatwave. We gradually increased the AC usage during the 1980s and especially the early 1990s. By the time we reached 2010, we had three ACs running much of the time compared to only one in the 1970s. Plus there was a rapid expansion of central AC even in Long Beach when it was a rarity near the shore in the 1970s. This is one of the reasons that HVAC is such a good career opportunity for people due to the increased demand in a warming world. As for the UHI issue, there was a 10°+ difference between NYC during 1896 heatwave and the surrounding countryside. This mostly occurs with summer heatwaves where the city absorbs more heat during the day. It also occurs during calm and clear nights with radiational cooling. The growth of skyscrapers in Western Brooklyn and Queens certainly changes the character of the neighborhood and of course you can see the change in the skyline since around 2004. But prior to that that area had densely packed lower rise buildings built of bricks. These new high rises are mainly glass and steel which absorb significantly less solar energy than bricks do. Plus a cluster of tall buildings will create a big area of shade which prevents the streets and sidewalks from absorbing as much heat as they did with smaller buildings with less shadows. The warmest parts of NYC are in Queens near spots like Corona were small to medium size brick structures dominate. So changing from lower rise brick and concrete structures to skyscrapers may not change the UHI much in Western Brooklyn and Queens to really be noticeable to residents there. That’s why I said a drop in the bucket to what was already one of the largest UHI zones in North America. The rural and suburban areas have warmed at a similar rate to places like Corona Queens over the years. So this is why both areas require more summer AC usage than they did during the 1970s.

Looks good now for a 2-3 inches of snow from DC to Philly up I-95. Just seems like the potential rug pull is high with this one.

That 0z Euro was a parade of snow storms for NNE.

Another 3” overnight on the car, around 6” for the event.

Whatever we do get Saturday night is wiped out mid week next week unfortunately

currently 36/28, partly cloudy, occasional north breeze

So this is NOT our moment

All overnight ensembles still have it so we are good for now

Gfs is still a miss but the icon, nam and rgem shifted more to the northwest. Euro up next. Plenty of time for shifts

Always... well usually.

Bleh, this sucks. Get ready for the cutters

35F currently in E CT, and very slippery outside. We got about .17” of rain

So now Saturday night into Sunday. Little to no snow. We've all been part of this song-and-dance before we have all this damn cold weather. And nothing to show for it, except little dusting here and there people will say it's too early. It's still early in the year. It's too early in the winter. And then what happens? We get a warm up and nothing happens after that. And now there's signals for a wawarml

Couple days of cad and then we go Oregon mode until at least January Hot start will be a distant memory

Got a dusting of snow, had a couple of decent showers. 31 degrees.

6z GFS is a clean whiff. On to 12/21?

6 NAM is meh for all

WB 6Z 12K NAM for Sunday.

I will take the Euro/NAM combo for an inch of snow on top of our snowpack. I will take pictures for you!

New York City finished December 1-10 with a mean temperature of 34.1F (1.2C). That was the coldest first 10 days of December since 2007 and sixth coldest since 2000. A quick look at the guidance shows that a light snow event (probably 1"-3") across the New York City area is likely on Sunday. Given how snow events have been challenging to come by in recent years, to some it might seem like a big event. Even the previously bone-dry NBM shows 0.12" QPF.

The pattern looks messy, but there’s still time for shifts. One good storm can flip the mood fast, so I’m not giving up hope yet.