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Very jealous of people getting laps up north! Father had a stroke so I’ve been helping out with property management and financial affairs. Hope I can skin or even just ride lifts soon! .

From our member @griteaterposted elsewhere: my take on him is that he isn’t a baseless hyping forecaster. Instead, he generally uses his intelligence and immense knowledge in an objective manner and thus is well worth following. Yes, he’s an optimist in the sense that his winter posts are mainly when the prospects for E US cold are good and is usually quiet(er) when prospects aren’t good. I think of him as the opposite of @snowman19. Both smart/knowledgeable and neither are baseless hypsters as they back up their posts well. One loves to predict cold and the other mild. Predicting the future is hard in any business or hobby, but I have higher than normal confidence that the Dec 15 to Jan 15 period is going to be active and fun in here. Get the load testing done early boys! My own feeling is that the combo of a weak SPV in late Nov/early Dec along with a weak to moderate MJO since that’s on average when it’s coldest (preferably <1.5 amp phase 8 followed by near or inside COD phases 1-2-3) combined with Nina climo would give a good chance at a cold dominated E US 12/15-1/15. A lot is up to the MJO.

mid 70s in RIC now. Still ~50 near Baltimore and mid 50s in DC.

Also who cares if it’s 80 on Thanksgiving week, it has no effect on what happens after that.

@CoastalWx will be happy to know the snowman has tipped over

This is some very strange stats. Not sure you can draw any meaningful conclusion at all from that. At the very least you’d want to add non-snowy falls and what happened in the following winters. Otherwise all you can see is that 1980-2023 has had less snowy winters after a snowy fall - but could also be that all winters in the first stretch were snowy and none in the second were, aka - there is zero correlation between fall and winter

Surfy and supportive, Jay was firing today. Never thought I would see the chutes under the tram be in play in mid-November (albeit with a sharky entrance). Tram ridge hot-laps were excellent all morning.

TBH.... I truly wonder if he is just trying to get a rise out of everybody ( action, I would hope he is, because if he's not.......... ). Lol

It's barely rained the last couple days. How are we getting big wind? Usually big enough me follows a strong rain storm Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

That frame in house foyer worthy Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Solid GEFS, GEPS .. EPS still wants to bury trough out west

Encouraging runs today

This would be nice, but some models are hinting at suppression. The AI Euro drops little to nothing from north of I-80.

Perfect example of why he is (unfortunately for him) utterly mistaken.

A sobering statistic for Montreal from the Weather Network. As always ….

Trash night tomorrow evening. Glad to see the winds won’t go to waste.

Since when does a winter month have climo highs 45-53 mid month throughout SNE?

Lmao November isn’t even close to a winter month, very much the middle of autumn, period. So enjoy it. Looks pretty decent just after that time frame, so let’s see.

Stereotype or not, it's just fact that China has way more cheap labor than any other country in the world. The fact that many factories have become more automated doesn't negate that.

GFS is probably on crack, but all models have trended wetter with the system next week.

I got this from Grace over in wx sphere she seems pretty knowledgeable about the weather. Of course the Pacific is the driver it can make make or break Winter. I would not worry though we are going to have a strong negative EPO and a positive Pna or negative Pna.

Great opening day!

I was driving bus back then and since we weren't super busy, I had a scheduled day off that day. Our lady driver wasn't so lucky, and had an NYC run that day. She said she had one hell of a drive back home that evening. I screenshotted Google Maps around supper time when it was the worst, and I'd not before (nor since) seen that many red roadways. It was a region wide driving disaster. The only other time it might have looked as bad, or worse, would have been VD 07, but I don't think we had Google Maps back then.

Kevin... You do know that November is not a Winter month, right? I mean, meteorological winter doesn't start till December 1st.