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The few events we've had favored areas that cash in on a NW wind direction. The Bentleyville/Solon area seems to be ground zero. Payback for all the events that have a due westerly wind we miss out on

Man... the GFS has been rock solid

Yeah. This is tough to even get too excited about yet. Basically a Nowcast of where that thing even sets up.

The RGEM pivotal map I linked was 10:1 ratios

Mostly a south coast and cape scraper on GFS but another bump would make it pretty decent if we can get that trend going rather than just oscillating between scrapers and whiffs on this model.

Snowfall is rapidly decreasing, except for high latitudes.

GFS pretty steady - very slight tick north but it's got such a tight band every tick matters I guess. ninja'd x2

Develops over the region on the GFS.

Loving all of the wintry scenes being posted. So far I'm living vicariously through them.

GFS slightly more north. 2-3” dc-Philly. Horrible cutoff nw tho. After rgem and nam, something tells me this isn’t done shifting north, for better or worse.

That's why I almost always post the 10:1 maps, as those give you easy-to-calculate QPF too and to do one's own ratio adjustments, as Kuchera generally sucks as a snow prediction algorithm.

100% agree and same for down here, speaking mainly for my experience with W/NW orographic /upslope snow. The good producers are almost always at night here. Maybe places like Stowe or Jay it is more even, but I can say for down here there is a stark difference. I feel this has been talked about at some point maybe years ago, I just cant remember that reason. I think one of the possible reasons was during the day with the Sun it can make them more convective in nature vs at night more stratiform without the daytime heating (relative). I may be completely off on that though...lol.

Winds are howling. Continuous steady 33 mph winds.

It's trending favorably at 12z. huh

I didn’t think this was totally unexpected. What would have been a surprise is a much longer stay in phase 8. I’ve been watching the MJO a lot lately, and the little rmm “loop” told us that some of the forcing would be pulled back from 8 to 6, resetting the 6>7>8 progression. Hollmovers showed this pretty clearly. I think we will see another incursion into 8 by years end into january. This may actually be part of a long term shift of the standing wave from 4-6 to 7-8, which will take a while but we may actually be seeing this play out.

I know and that’s why today is a critical moment for guidance.

These winds are brutal. Was on 95 going to training. Over the hackensack river huge gust came through, watched every truck start moving thinking one was going to tip then my pickup got hit and was like wtf.

Don’t think it will be enough on GFS but def a good trend.

nahhh otherwise Metfan would have spammed us with 8000 images from the JMA by now

Accounting for the typical NAM biases at this range this is largely a non-event. I'm waiting on the Euro but with all the pieces firmly now inside the denser/more physically realized sounding inputs, this hasn't trended favorable. Probably was time to move on earlier but in deference to desperation ( lol ). Anyway, the next possible notoriety in the pipeline is possible historic warmth during the week of Xmas. I know ... I know, not a notoriety some would incline to marvel. But, it is what it is. Unfortunately for the winter/snow/Currier&Ives settings enthusiasts, the following is more coherent than not. The indexes signal a warm period. This is suggested numerically, but is definitely than supported when noting the idiosyncrasies of the spatial layouts coming from the different clusters that has been emerging over the last couple of day's worth of cycles They've all been incrementally retrograding the -WPO ridge W, across the N. Pac. Meanwhile stopping/signaling any emerging positive non-hydrostatitc hgt anomalies amid the EPO domain region. Meanwhile, the PNA slipping negative through Jan 1. So with +EPO/-PNA, this does correlate well with a Pac NW River-type circulation mode, which then teleconnects downstream with the SE ridge response. This is uneasy, as we've been seeing this feature there - albeit suppress and compressed - despite the current cold pattern. When that compression relaxes in lieu of the above, that sort of implies a carte blanche in latitude with the SE aspect. I wouldn't get to blown away by amplitude for now. Although ... I must admit, I'm fighting the impression that warmth is like .. in a state of always being spring-loaded. When the cold relaxes, go the other way above "Climate anomalies" more frequently than we used to. That's also lurking in there. We'll see

Gfs looks a bit better through 60. Let’s see if it translates to anything

RGEM is a nice swatch of 4-6". Nice to see things coming together rather than the opposite

Sorry 3.5 to 4.6789"

why even bother with snowmaps? use liquid and then apply 10:1 or slightly above / below depending on DGZ and dynamics. this event would produce 12-15:1 pretty easily on the northern end of the precip shield; these events usually do so

lol it has 0.4" liquid in NYC. 3-5" is a perfect description