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11.6" here which is 2.6" AN

After that discussion last night… despite 850s well above 0C, we got some convection that caused rain to change to pasty snow. I’ve never seen snow fall with soundings like last night. 2am and +7C at 850mb and pounding paste in convection?

I have to think that we are in the beginning stages of seeing an improved PAC. But as you stated, with how warm the west PAC is there needs to be some caution in this. I'm having a ton of fun. I can't speak for other programs are, it's totally possible other programs are much more extensive with the math (but it probably depends on what you're seeking). TBH though its been a bit too easy so far, I was hoping for a bit more of a challenge. This isn't to say I am not getting anything out of it, I have learned some techniques with respect to winter forecasting, especially within the medium-range and evaluating models to help with trying to identify potential trends and model weaknesses. The section we're doing in this class though on seasonal forecasting though is really just basic stuff...going over things like PDO/AMO/ENSO/QBO but not in any great depth. But the professor is quite experienced so the real value comes from him sharing his experiences and knowledge. This is what I love most. I actually have the same professor for both classes I'm taking now and he is awesome.

Mixing is key... The models try to warm sector everywhere S of Brian and including his latitude, which agreed ... at the moment challenges the imagination as how in the hell that can actually happen when looking at larger regional synoptic observations. Take this hi res vis loop, https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Virginia-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Notice that wedge of very low level cloud arrow heading into interior VA. That's like a latex paint spill on a highway, imagine cloud-cars are gliding over the top of it. We are underneath that paint spill in this metaphor. In order to scour that out, the sun will help... but mixing is really needed for that to happen. Pure speculation, but I suspect that is why the meso models have been insistently cool as they have been, despite the frontal look of the models ( 18 to 00z later on...). They are telling us that there won't be enough mixing. It's like the warm sector pivots across the top never kissing the surface. Need the cold front to clean house. Tomorrow may actually be better than guidance, particularly if it clears. Ample late summer sun quality rising over a scoured out d-slope flow that isn't CAA crazy might actually make conditions anomalously good relative to having an overtop high pressure again building in from Ontario. Which by they ... - I'm just diatribing in general - odds lean away from observing a real and true wholesale warming over the eastern mid lat continent, if/while that PV continues to its relentless re-establishing presence N-E of Hudson Bay. So long as that is apparently never ever ever going to change ... eh hm, we are doomed to those over top high pressures ... almost like back building they are, bullying in and afflicting with NE-E "coldrums"

I would love to take a class like that, which focuses on seasonal forecasting and doesn't try to stuff Calculus 8 down your throat.

I've seen this forecast before. 85 today or fog and 45. Normally I'd lean towards heat wining because that’s our superpower. The only thing that can beat heat in early April is the ne wedge. Hoodie weather with drizzle it is. Fine by me.

1957-1958 is my early leader in the clubhouse, and then I was reminded of it when looking at CANSIPS....but we need to be leery of how the warmer west Pacific interacts with ENSO because I got duped into interpreting 2023 as a Modoki look. That being said, it should be be that bad because the Pac has improved since then...maybe something in between 2023 and 1957.

Doesn't look great

I have family that live on Fairmount right in that location. The damage was spotty but intense where it dropped down. Rain gauge is showing 2.47" so far this week. We could use a week of dry weather.

April 3 1999: An ice storm hits Duluth and the Arrowhead. An 800 foot television tower in Duluth collapses due to the weight of the ice. ^Note: That's the second tower within a decade that falls due to ice^ 1982: A sharp cold front causes the temperature at Lamberton in Redwood County to drop from 78 to 7 degrees. This 71 degree change in 24 hours is the maximum 24-hour temperature change in Minnesota. 1837: A snowstorm rages for four days at Ft. Snelling and dumps 9 inches. For Friday, April 3, 2026 1955 - Record snows fell in north central Wyoming and south central Montana. Billings MT received a storm total of 42.3 inches, and on the 4th reported a record snow depth of 35 inches. Sheridan WY established a 24 hour snowfall record of 26.7 inches. (2nd-4th) (The Weather Channel) 1974 - A "Super-Outbreak" of tornadoes ravaged the Midwest and the eastern U.S. Severe weather erupted early in the afternoon and continued through the next day. Severe thunderstorms spawned 148 tornadoes from Alabama to Michigan, most of which occurred between 1 PM (CST) on the 3rd and 1 AM on the 4th. The tornadoes killed 315 persons, injured 5300 others, and caused 600 million dollars damage. Alabama, Kentucky and Ohio were especially hard hit in the tornado outbreak. One tornado destroyed half of the town of Xenia OH killing 34 persons. Another tornado, near the town of Stamping Ground KY, produced a path of destruction a record five miles in width. A tornado raced through Guin AL at a speed of 75 mph. Two powerful tornadoes roared across northern Alabama during the early evening hours, killing fifty persons and injuring 500 others. Some rescue vehicles responding to the first tornado were 1987 - A storm in the southeastern U.S. produced a trace of snow at Mobile, AL, one inch at Jackson MS, and two inches at Meridian MS, the latest snow of record for those three locations. Birmingham AL received seven inches of snow, and up to nine inches was reported in northeast Alabama. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A wind gust to 114 mph was clocked at Ann Arbor, MI, during a tornadic thunderstorm. Thunderstorms in Michigan and Indiana spawned five tornadoes that Easter Sunday, and also produced golf ball size hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Southern Plains to the southern and central Appalachians. The thunderstorms spawned twenty tornadoes, including one which caused eight million dollars damage at Fort Branch IN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Rain and snow prevailed in the northeastern U.S., with snow reported in New York State. Boston MA was soaked with 2.91 inches of rain during the day and night, and up to half a foot of snow blanketed the hills of Steuben County NY that Tuesday night. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2008 - An EF-1 tornado knocks down numerous tress and powerlines, destroys homes in Leawood and Cammack Village and passes directly over the Little Rock National Weather Service office. Six tornados were confirmed in central Arkansas, but no fatalities were reported.

That map is laughable for my neck of the woods.

That rarely happens in Nebraska, either. I lived there for 3.5 years....once those 90s and 100s hit, it is locked in for the summer.

I doubt the sun comes out...even down here.

It's going to be fun watching the models fail as this stagnated cold saturated density on the bottom of the atmosphere clings to the region. If it does turn out "nice" ...it will be among the more exceptional same 12 hour period turn arounds recorded. 37/drizzle. It also isn't a good look when there is an active NE wind down in NJ, still, approaching mid morning. I'm perfectly willing to go with the bust today if need be. Haven't been completely sold on the whiplash. But should it turn around enough to fairly transform this rectal plaque into a nice description, hell...stranger things have happened I guess. Edit, recent check and the wind field has finally this hour gone variable between BOS-PHL so perhaps en masse mixing event is readying itself. We'll see.

4.9" imby. Yesterday the wet snow mixed with small grains of sleet during the aftrn before it went all snow. Snow ended overnight sometime. Next one should hit harder to my N & W. With more mixing my way. Ice storm warning over N WI & UP MI.

Agreed, low of 39 here, 41 now and damp. Hoping to get some yard work in this afternoon so I'd like to see things start to brighten up and get some wind going out there.

Today will turn out to nice but it is a crap start for sure.

The overnight highs Wed - Thu yielded an avg -ish day Thu 4/2 EWR: 54 / 42 (0) NYC: 51 / 41 (-2)

Dam…that ain’t any fun..certainly not a “Good Friday” there.

Records: Highs: EWR: 81 (1967) NYC: 81 (1981) LGA: 77 (1967) JFK: 75 (1967) Lows: EWR: 24 (1954) NYC: 24 (1954) LG: 25 (1954) JFK: 29 (2008) Historical: 1898: A snowslide near Chilkoot Pass, AK in the Yukon during the Gold Rush buried 142 people and killed 43 others. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1901: Storm with a barometer reading of 29.10 at WBO and gave Baltimore 2.80 inches of rain. 1915: Richmond, VA had a high temperature for the day of only 37 °F matching the coldest April day on record (records since 1897). The other date with a 37 °F maximum was April 8th, 1972. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) 1932: 19 inches of snow fell at State College in Centre County, PA. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1936: St. Louis, MO dropped to 20°; their lowest April temperature on record. Sioux Falls, SD dropped to 4°; their coldest temperature ever recorded for the month of April. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1955 - Record snows fell in north central Wyoming and south central Montana. Billings MT received a storm total of 42.3 inches, and on the 4th reported a record snow depth of 35 inches. Sheridan WY established a 24 hour snowfall record of 26.7 inches. (2nd-4th) (The Weather Channel) 1974 - A "Super-Outbreak" of tornadoes ravaged the Midwest and the eastern U.S. Severe weather erupted early in the afternoon and continued through the next day. Severe thunderstorms spawned 148 tornadoes from Alabama to Michigan, most of which occurred between 1 PM (CST) on the 3rd and 1 AM on the 4th. The tornadoes killed 315 persons, injured 5300 others, and caused 600 million dollars damage. Alabama, Kentucky and Ohio were especially hard hit in the tornado outbreak. One tornado destroyed half of the town of Xenia OH killing 34 persons. Another tornado, near the town of Stamping Ground KY, produced a path of destruction a record five miles in width. A tornado raced through Guin AL at a speed of 75 mph. Two powerful tornadoes roared across northern Alabama during the early evening hours, killing fifty persons and injuring 500 others. Some rescue vehicles responding to the first tornado were 1975: A severe early spring storm over the northeastern U.S. began on this date and blasted the area for the next three days. Wind gusts reached 87 mph at West Harpswell, ME and Boston, MA recorded its lowest April pressure on record with 28.68 inches of mercury. Hurricane force winds along the coast produced tides 2 to 4 feet above normal flooding. Winds atop Mount Washington, NH gusted to 140 mph. 1 to 4 feet of snow fell from western New York to northern Maine with the higher elevations receiving the most. Sioux City, IA plunged to -2°; their coldest April temperature on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - A storm in the southeastern U.S. produced a trace of snow at Mobile, AL, one inch at Jackson MS, and two inches at Meridian MS, the latest snow of record for those three locations. Birmingham AL received seven inches of snow, and up to nine inches was reported in northeast Alabama. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A wind gust to 114 mph was clocked at Ann Arbor, MI, during a tornadic thunderstorm. Thunderstorms in Michigan and Indiana spawned five tornadoes that Easter Sunday, and also produced golf ball size hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Southern Plains to the southern and central Appalachians. The thunderstorms spawned twenty tornadoes, including one which caused eight million dollars damage at Fort Branch IN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Rain and snow prevailed in the northeastern U.S., with snow reported in New York State. Boston MA was soaked with 2.91 inches of rain during the day and night, and up to half a foot of snow blanketed the hills of Steuben County NY that Tuesday night. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1996: Marquette, MI recorded 12.6 inches of snow on this day to raise its seasonal snowfall to 250.8 inches, the city's snowiest winter ever until 1997. The old record was 243.8 inches set back in 1981-82. The snowfall for the month now stood at 43.4 inches, the snowiest April on record for the city as well. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2004: A supercell thunderstorm formed near Eunice, NM, and drifted into Gaines County, Texas. Hail, mainly nickel-to-baseball-size, fell on US-62/180 10-22 miles W of Seminole, TX, for 1 hr 6 min. Hail accumulated (on the flat) to a depth of 1.5 feet closing the highway. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2005: Heavy snow from a slow moving cut off low began to wind down over Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania, and western New York. Two day snowfall totals included 29 inches at Colt Station, PA, 26.5 inches at Stockton, NY, 24.8 inches at Thompson, OH, and 18 inches at Erie, PA. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2008 - An EF-1 tornado knocks down numerous tress and powerlines, destroys homes in Leawood and Cammack Village and passes directly over the Little Rock National Weather Service office. Six tornados were confirmed in central Arkansas, but no fatalities were reported.

43 / 42 still ENE winds. Flow comes around and we'll see how long it takes to clear out and burn off the muck. If sooner, low - mid 70s in the warm spots if longer, stuck in the 60s. More clouds Saturday but still warm, could be similar to Wed if we clear enough temps will easily exceed the 60s/low 70s. Easter more clouds / showery warm in the 60s. Front later Easter leaving way to a overall cooler but near normal Mon - Wed. Beyond there ridge builds east by later next week and into next weekend with an overall warmer through and beyond with the next chance of very warm in the 4/10 - 4/15 period. Also looking below avg on the rainfall with the main rainfall staying west of us.

Would not be surprised to see some accumulating snow for the ski areas up north Tuesday

Life is to short to be miserable, but that’s something only you can decide,

The warmest weather here will be overnight tonight.