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The coastal areas of especially much of the Carolinas are likely going to be affected a good bit this weekend by Invest 92L, located ~100 miles E of N FL as it heads generally N. Recon will be in it early this afternoon. It’s possible that they’ll find that it’s already a TD. If so, TS Chantal may not be far behind. Conditions are moderately conducive to development. See the Tropical subforum for a dedicated thread for this.

Lovely day for a ride, or 2. Just as much as people are enjoying the nicer temps so are the horses. Have the younger Ms J down to exercise some ponies while hers is still on rest from an injury.

you said it would be memorable so you kind of did

67.9/52 SCT A nice change of pace, COC day.

Spending the long July 4th holiday weekend with family & friends here in the Berks. Gorgeous outdoors, currently 71F under deep blue skies. Topped out at 92F yesterday back in HPN.

Recon will take off at noon EDT and get into it during the early afternoon: SUSPECT AREA (OFF SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST) FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 A. 04/1800Z B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST C. 04/1600Z D. 30.5N 79.5W E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2100Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST H. WRA ACTIVATION

Perfection until all of the people showed up lol

2 consecutive days in 1948, not 3.

It’s hard to tell via radar but there looks like there’s a fairly well defined low level circulation.

Yeah, unusually cool and wet July 4th following the snowiest winter of the 1970s. Climatological Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - July 1978 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1978-07-01 78 58 68.0 -5.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 1978-07-02 73 55 64.0 -9.7 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 1978-07-03 70 60 65.0 -8.9 0 0 0.99 0.0 0 1978-07-04 61 56 58.5 -15.6 6 0 1.56 0.0 0 Climatological Data for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - July 1978 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1978-07-01 84 66 75.0 0.3 0 10 0.00 0.0 0 1978-07-02 78 57 67.5 -7.4 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 1978-07-03 71 60 65.5 -9.6 0 1 1.73 0.0 0 1978-07-04 65 60 62.5 -12.7 2 0 0.50 0.0 0 Snowfall Data for October 1, 1977 through April 30, 1978 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY PORT JERVIS COOP 70.5 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 68.7 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 68.0 CT DANBURY COOP 67.0 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 66.7 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 65.2 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 64.9 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 COOP 64.7 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 64.1 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 62.3 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 61.6 NJ CRANFORD COOP 60.7 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 60.2 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 59.7 NY SCARSDALE COOP 59.6 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 59.1 NJ GREENWOOD LAKE COOP 59.0 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 58.0 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 57.5 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 57.1 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 56.0 NY MINEOLA COOP 55.8 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 55.6 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 54.2 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 52.7 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 51.6 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 51.4 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 50.7 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 49.1 CT GROTON COOP 48.9 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 48.5 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 48.3 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 46.5 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 45.6 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 43.5

Had a high yesterday of 92°.... Got done with the yard work just in time as thunderstorm followed with 0.27" rain and 39 mph gust .

Yea that’s a TS by looks on IR and vis satellite. Should get a name imminently.

This -PDO being driven by the warm SST anomalies from Japan to north of Hawaii since 2019 is something new for us. The pattern has lead to warmer winters and record low snowfall due to the storm track through the Great Lakes and a faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. Very amplified Aleutian Ridges have become the norm. It has also resulted in the Greenland blocking linking up with the Southeast Ridge. So strong subtropical ridges across the Pacific and Atlantic basins. The previous extended -PDO interval from 2007 to 2013 was more defined by the cold pool west of North America and a weaker warm pool east of Japan. Much weaker Aleutian Ridges and no Southeast Ridge in the East. So we didn’t have the Greenland blocking linking up with the Southeast Ridge. During the extended -PDO phase from 1950 to 1976 there was also a much weaker Aleutian Ridge along with much cooler SSTs in both basins. So there wasn’t any linkage between the Greenland blocking and Southeast Ridge.

Not in York yet, a couple more weeks, still in Mass on the CT border so I see CT fireworks too.

Enjoy this great weather folks, looks like we get days of rain beginning next Tuesday?

How was it so cold in 1978? Raining all day? What was the low Chris? I don't see the high at JFK in this list, was it 65+ there?

Wow I wonder what they would have recorded on July 22, 2011.... In 2010 we maxed out in the low 100s here (three days).

The biggest anomalies in the extended could still be over SNE. Sites are already +5 to +7 coming in to today with big + anomalies Sun and Mon. BDL will probably be safe because the sensor is finally fixed but top 5 is still in play in most places. It only takes a few cool days to ruin it though.

Scraps

We need more rain like we need an STD. My goodness, it’s been feast or famine over the last several years.

Aaaaahhhh

Looking good on the latest imagery. I would imagine it will be classified as a TD/weak TS at 11am.

For you and nne, sure. Still AN for sne but that’s par for the course these days. We can forecast AN every warm season month and look like a genius.

If you were looking SSW from York probably Portsmouth...between 9:15-9:45 or so. Actually may be the last time they have them here due to budget cuts. Would need a private donor to pay for it.

Enjoy the 4th, all I got .15” rain yesterday in that little pop up storm.