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  2. wxmeddler
    The over-convection and "big blobs" on the RRFS is a known bias or "bug" with the FV3 Dynamical Core. This was explored recently by Lou Wicker at OU (See: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-25-0230.1). In short, it can't really be fixed without significant changes to the core. OMD hasn't said it outright publicly but the original plan was to turn off the HRRR and RAP at the same time as the RRFS Operationalization. But they've scrapped that specifically because of the FV3 core issues. Now the plan is to turn off the HRRR and RAP when the RRFS transitions to the MPAS Core in ~2028. (https://www.weather.gov/media/wrn/calendar/RRFS_webinar_20260625.pdf)
  3. canderson
    A gully washer in HBG
  4. vortex95
    That's a solid sign. One thing that can misleading -- cool, dreary, and stable-looking can make ppl think, "how can this 'go away' so fast and big svr occur?" Well, it does and can be quite dramatic. Wichita Falls TX was socked in stable ahead of the warm front on 4/10/1979, and then an F4 cut directly through the city for the costliest tor up to this time. Same thing in Windsor CO on 5/22/2008. This was an odd one b/c it occurred the late morning, moved NNW, and the storm formed in a very narrow sweet spot of instability/shear ahead of a sfc low. See here: https://www.weather.gov/bou/TornadoMay22nd2008 Mean-looking! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfYuT0oalXQ
  5. Stormlover74
    South of there. We may get some downpours tonight
  6. Kmlwx
    Good demonstration of how more resolution is not always automatically "better." There's probably a "happy medium" where errors can be smoothed while still having good resolution...but I imagine if we had like 0.25km resolution models it would be chaotic at best. Until better computing comes along I guess.
  7. vortex95
    It loves to make giant convective blobs on its composite reflectivity fcst. Once it goes operational, and ppl use it more, I bet that will be a sig complaint, and they will address it. A big issue w/ mesoscale models now is that the more hires they get and more directly simulate the atmosphere processes, the challenge to get everything in balance goes up in a non-linear fashion. In other words, any small tweak to fix one issue can have big impacts to another part of the model.
  8. batmanbrad
    CSU-MLP latest still painting the maximum TOR possibilities right over the general DC area:
  9. John1122
    The DP is 78 right now as we approach the noon hour. This went from a drought to the most humid summer I can recall here.
  10. Kmlwx
    The RRFS looked pretty good too. I feel like it has tended to be very bullish on convection this season.
  11. mikeysed
    Short range models still showing mostly south jersey for severe threat later?
  12. mob1
    If these training cells don't lift north soon (or weaken), Oahu is going to have some serious flooding issues.
  13. vortex95
    Yes, quite stable looking w/w a mid level deck (almost asperitas). However, there is instability above that, as evidenced by the sharp showery nature of the rain, Driving a short time ago, I'd literally hit a wall of rain, but the shafts are very narrow. Drove another 500 ft, and it would just stop! No vis reduction. And the rain was heavy not b/c of big drops, but the density was very high, so warm rain process and shows how tropical juiced things are! I did not like that the 12z HRRR showed almost nothing for the DC area this aftn, but the 13 and 14z runs bring it all back. Not quite as intense as say the 00 and 06z runs, but at this point, we'll just have to see how the mesoscale details work. Due to the rain and cloud cover, hard to tell if this is any real front across the region. Winds are all generally light S from the PA border and S. No real temp gradient either, all in the mid-upper 70s. No 80 until RIC and that just SE of there. Still early though. The AM convection is on schedule and modeled well.
  14. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  15. VivaManchVegas
    Sorry to hear that comrade.
  16. Today
  17. kdxken
    I don't even want that.
  18. kdxken
    The woodyard is in Sherborn. Which although is just as bad or worse I am regulated by the state as a farm.
  19. VivaManchVegas
    I am surprised they let you cut so much wood in the peoples republic of Southboro. Do you have people protesting you at the end of your driveway?
  20. Kmlwx
    Cloudy and dreary is the theme today (so far). Not seeing much clearing potential on visible sat either. But we'll see if we can get robust convection later with dewpoints being high.
  21. marsman
    83F / 77 dew. Feels like 92, even with the cloudy skies. The sun is starting to poke out more, which is just gonna make it worse.
  22. Torch Tiger
    Stein asserting dominance again
  23. ForestHillWx
    Up at Schroon Lake for the week; 48 this morning. Beautiful day on tap.
  24. ChescoWx
    Some showers are around this morning and will likely increase in coverage later in the day into this evening. We should see some sun returning tomorrow but still a chance of additional showers. Total rain amounts look to be from 0.50" to 1.00" with the higher amounts likely over Western Chester County and into Lancaster County. Tuesday and Wednesday look like great weather with sunny skies and low humidity with temperatures slightly below normal for the middle of August.
  25. ChescoWx
    Some showers are around this morning and will likely increase in coverage later in the day into this evening. We should see some sun returning tomorrow but still a chance of additional showers. Total rain amounts look to be from 0.50" to 1.00" with the higher amounts likely over Western Chester County and into Lancaster County. Tuesday and Wednesday look like great weather with sunny skies and low humidity with temperatures slightly below normal for the middle of August.
  26. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  27. Terpeast
    Couple things to watch for is the source region as the STJ will almost be a given. If canadian temp anomalies are more than +20 (with Minneapolis +15 or Syracuse +10) it won’t be good for us. But if the temp anomalies are more moderate, we’ll still be in good shape for some opportunities.
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