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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The CDC Daily climate composites page hasn't been working so I can't do exact measurements on the data is was based on, but the SSTA on Tropical Tidbits looks about Neutral so far, close to 0.0. -
0.15" today. Also the "event" total lol. Looking at guidance, probably a half to maybe an inch total through Sunday. I'll take the low end of that. That wont do much for the dryness here. Really need a 2" soaker.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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.30” so far for today. My event total is 1.32”. It is gloomy and cool but I just keep saying we need the rain, we really need the rain. I would like to see it space itself out but will take what we can get.
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Steady drizz and showers all day in silver spring. Maybe a half inch by now? Can't complain, need it.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Soooooo glad I just got a mow in. The rain started right as i was finishing up. Not sure when I would have been able to do it otherwise and it would have been borderline unmanageable ha. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
@Stormchaserchuck1 How's the May NAO index off Newoundland looking so far if you don't mind me asking? -
Had an inch up here in Hanover, with the next round underway. Nws has us totaling around 2" +/- thru Sunday. Since I hate mowing...this sux. But we do need the rain. The lake at Codoras State Park is at least 5' BN.
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Sunday is the real dumpster fire. Saturday is tolerable, temps and clouds suck but at least my FIL won't be grilling with an umbrella. Monday PM we hit 70-75 with some breaks of sun. Not great but not a complete disaster.
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Radar trend looks good for central and northern MD and spotty at best down here. My county went into this at just 9.2" since Jan 1 for a departure of -7.3. Look at those soil moistures (20-40% is what you want)
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Even the new RONI projections are up to +3C now: ^ “Getting this sort of MJO-driven reinforcement of the developing #ElNiño with a massive westerly wind burst is a pretty good indicator that this event is going to be a very strong one. No sustained easterlies to interrupt the last Kelvin Wave, and this next WWB should push the warm pool even further east. Probably why even the *relative* SST anomalies are pushing 3-3.5C in some of the latest forecasts.” Check out this animated thermocline progression over the last month…..just wow: -
Definitely feels more north...no complaints here but big totals might be a bit more challenging 1.69 and light drizzle
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Summer Outlooks
WinstonSalemArlington replied to WinstonSalemArlington's topic in Southeastern States
Allan Huffman -
I always do a double-take when you or Ji are the voice of reason. Oh, and Maestro when it comes to Baltimore snow.
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its over by Monday
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We're going into peak severe season and it's going to be snoozeville for at least the next two weeks.
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We're up to 0.37" now. To the moon! Looking at the radar it seems to me that the big slug down in Alabama might have our name on it...eventually.
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49/47 at Deep Creek. Steady rain, clouds, wind, even more utility disruptions than normal. .66" yesterday and .38" so far today. Does not appear that the temperature will move much (if any) prior to Sunday afternoon and the rain chances appear categorical most of that time. With respect to holiday weekend plans, consider anywhere else. A real disappointment for the people and the limited economy up here sadly, they can't really make it up when a holiday period is washed out like this.
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When I found this house, it had been sitting empty on the market for almost three years. The couple that built it in 2007 were in their late-50's at the time and decided to retire here from Illinois because they enjoyed their yearly summer vacations to the area so much. Turns out, after two winters they would not face a third. He couldn't keep up with the amount and frequency of the snow at his age, and she fell into a deep depression during the winter months... ended up moving to Colorado Springs. I will never forget what the man said to me at closing in a weirdly ominous tone, I remember thinking at the time, "Just remember, if the forecast is calling for 1-3 feet, you're the 3". Almost 13 years later and I'm still here. A great looking day here, sunny 65/29 w/ a light breeze.
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A couple of dustings and a little freezing drizzle in December, after that absolutely nothing, not even any false alarms, due to continuous warmth (dewpoints above 60 on January 8!!)
