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Well the 18z GFS isn't close to any snow. You guys made me look.

I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England.

Yeah. Some legit stuff on models

I know CAPE is seeing #09 and thinking to himself..."it's in the bag weenies."

I am going weaker on the PNA than last winter. But there could still be +PNA intervals. Very strong warmth and 500mb ridging in Canada since May 2023.

Are You really serious????

Nice cold shot coming up Lows

New England looks like a fun spot to be in December if that's correct. Storm track could be an issue for us southern folks but it's a long ways out yet

No, i just went on to the site and submitted the application

Nice seeing so many people get after it this weekend. Nice and snowy up high. We got after it in a different way on some of our favorite enduro trails across the river from Berkshire East ski area. .

Do you report to the program?

EPS snowfall panels.... 24 out of 50 (48%) give some part of the forum at least flurries thru November 14 (I count "some part of the forum" as flurries in at least one of the airports of RIC, BWI, IAD, and DCA). Maybe this thing does have a chance!

I need to move back to the DC Metropolitan Region. Ever since I left in 2018 things have gone to hell worse than the post-Snyder Redskins franchise.

Looks like first real cold shot comes arounf 11/11.

IDK, seems kind of arbitrary to me, dude....pretty close to last year's 2.762. Furthermore, phase 4 is also in the MC. You do you, but I would be loathe to forecast a strong RNA in the mean. Again, agree weaker than last year's deviation, which isn't saying much.

Looks like it's factoring Nina with Blocking.

It’s based in the peak MJO 5 phase in October. Since the MJO weakened into phase 5 after moving through phase 4. But even if that 2.42 made it into 5, then it would still be lower than the 2.76 to 3.35 of the mismatch years.

I any event, I do agree that the PNA will not be as positve as last winter. Not arguing that point.

-NAO only as good as the cooperating Pacific. Otherwise enjoy a cold rain in NYC

Wednesday night

Yeah but it's not been warm either. That's why I said a normal Winter is coming, which is unusual for the last 10 years. Also said the odds of something like 02-03 this Winter are much lower than usual.

BWI: 19.7 DCA: 13.8 IAD: 18.1 RIC: 12.1 TB- LYH: 11.3

Are there any metal working hobbyists that are interested in an early 80’s Hechinger wheelbarrow project? I feel bad retiring it and even worse if I just trash it.

I usually agree with Coz for the most part but, this time I see no reason to. La ninas typically have early Winter cold followed by mild Feb. He's probably banking on losing the Nina early Winter and thinking that should lead to a cold end. If anything, if early typical nina cold does materialize and it progresses to neutral and the end turns like he thinks, that could mean a long cold Winter.