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the only thing that i'll be looking for tonight is see if the GFS changes, and i'm hoping the best model Euro AI goes a bit south from earlier runs! I'll go to sleep happy!

Lol, we hit send at the same time.

I'm gonna make sure we got to the cigar shop after we drive to the cheese/wine store in Oakland...to stock up just in case....

What type of CWG forecast is this?

Pittsburgh

Allison Park

Looks quite dry but the 3K and 12K are so opposite it’s hard to take seriously.

Yaaaaaassss. Thats a crew right there! Love it!!

This is one of the more intense SWFE (hybrids) we have seen in quite some time. But yeah, they don't really tic south.

It looks to me like the 0z NAM quickly puts down .85 inches of freezing rain on TYS before switching to rain Saturday night and climbing to 48 degrees. Total of about 2.5 inches of QPF.

I agree. But I don't think anyone said it's not going to be a significant snowstorm though.

hat line is getting too close for comfort

Where do you see NWS forecasting 18 for NYC ? It’s been 6-10 with a possibility of more than 12 since earlier today when the watch was issued

Temps at a first glance, but I have a hard time thinking it would be off that much ?

The last map I remember that looked like this was the one 10 years ago, just before the January 2016 storm.

Okay I'm about to go super weenie here, but that's where I am mentally. You probably already know this, but per this paper, the FV3 is being retired as well when RRFS comes online: https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-25-0323.1/BAMS-D-25-0323.1.pdf The RRFS switched to MPAS for v2, which is (I believe) what we're watching slowly roll in. Supposedly, even v1 outperformed most high-res models, with some reflectively issues that have hopefully been resolved per that paper. I'll stop now.

You are going to flip too man. Maybe even before us. That primary is going to drive right up under you. But a beautiful place to be regardless.

The messenger shuffles are usually in coastals. Not SWFEs. Though this is a little bit of a hybrid. More SWFE, but there’s also a crazy anomalous airmass too.

I tried to brighten up the photo though I like the dark version of me better. Great meeting you both. We need a forum wide event gathering!

Where were they at?

Are you looking at the actual sounding, or just the temperatures at those levels??

Just based off the 00Z NAM for what it may or may not be worth I'm good with my 6-10" early call. We'll see how it plays out.