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UK much improved as well, looks like consensus for about an inch in DC.

Random observation, but it's been a snowy week in Albany and the upper Hudson Valley. Yes that's far outside our region, but not typically a very snowy area. They got into intense lake effect snow last Fri for several hours then warning snows on Tue and now arctic snow squalls incoming. Hopefully we can spread that love a little further south down the Hudson over the next few weeks.

I’ll need to figure out who that is and where they live. Lol amounts can sometimes vary widely from the south part of town to the NW side,

Best part is that whatever happens is inside 96h. No long range tracking here. And that is my big seasonal concern. Torpedo is a brilliant way of describing it. If it hits it can do legit damage, but if it is one of those crap unguided ones most of them zip on with sound and fury signifying nothing.

I don't think comparing model performance for the last storm has any bearing on what to expect from guidance on this storm. They are two totally different setups. In retrospect though, all guidance really struggled with the last storm. Every model, every run, was yielding a totally different look and evolution of the 500mb energy but given that regime that should be expected. Also, when it comes to potential phasing events its all about timing. The slightest difference in the timing of the phase can mean a SLP of weak sauce with nothing or a full fledged nor'easter. Even on the Euro there is more room for the northern stream to dig given the jet streak associated with the trough but subtle differences can result in big changes to the sfc output.

Ebb and flow of climate is interesting. We were not on a heater there in some of those SNE 2010s seasons. But it’s been a run the past two seasons.

Only model showing really anything is the gfs. Not great

Sitting at 36/24. Not expecting anything out of this coming up. Bummer. Maybe we can pull a surprise! Temps way off on the HRRR short range considering.

We’ll melt it out a few days later anyways as our clipper becomes a cutter.

Yeah, it really blows up once it gets past us. This is the type of system I feel like we had trend better in this timeframe back in like 2014-17 timeframe. We haven’t had any luck with that since

Really that's going to be the challenge ... I realize I hit at this aspect a lot and probably it's getting on nerves, I dunno - folks don't seem to acknowledge they understand, or perhaps they don't give a shit. LOL either way ... but the fastness of the basal velocity, is also matched by the fact that embeded S/W are torpedoing at huge speeds relative to planetary climate. We're seeing them enter B.C. and exit the EC of N/A in like 60 hours. It's very physically challenging to get streams to resonate with that circumstantially going on. But that said, it doesn't mean it can't just be enough... or perhaps slow down even ( thus allowing more harmonics), if the non-linear +PNA ( which is in fact bursting in that time range - mentioned this earlier to Southcoast' ) becomes more linearly expressed. This morning ... as I glanced over the overnight largely disappointing cinemas, it occurred to me just how fantastic the overall B-C gradient is over our side of the hemisphere. Perhaps more raw potential explosive power, untapped, than I've ever seen since becoming aware of this shit back in 1990+ ... But there's shot-gun pellet S/W that are all having trouble resonating and are just blasting past one another. We just need the large wave scales to curve more - which they are challenged to do ( again..) because the speed saturation.

CMC looks meh

Keeping with the theme of this winter, my prediction will be less than an inch for MBY. If more than that Terpeast can eat a shoe

Timing similiar to other models? 4-7 am or so? .

Euro was out to see on the last storm in GFS is better with the northern stream yes?

They only recently dropped the C in front of the RAP

Dover reported 7.0 and Rochester had reports of 8.0 and 7.0. PSM only 4.6".

IMO you have been traumatized by repeated cycles of expectation/hype followed by failure/disappointment. Those "patterns" you speak of were imaginary constructs created by weather hobbyists in an era of 4 times per day models run out to 16 days. Models and certainly meteorologists cannot accurately predict regional weather out past 10 days. So don't be fooled. In the 90s we had a handful of short range models out to 2 or 3 days and a handful of medium range models out to 5 or 7 days. They ran twice a day. People didn't pretend to "see" favorable patterns way out in fantasy range. And hobbyists weren't therefore disappointed by not realizing the imagined potential. It is always hard to get snowstorms near NYC. A lot has to go right for it to happen.

Good luck! Sending you all snow and cold from Chicago. Posting back in here under my new name.

I will not hear any RAP slander. Kuchie 1+ for much of Maryland

I have Monday's off so would be perfect for me

Wish we had a bit more downstream ridging but let's see if it can dig more and phase a bit earlier. It becomes a nuke south of Nova Scotia